Minnesota Vikings 2009-2010 Season: Expect The Unexpected

We can only make our best educated guess how an NFL team will do during any season. You have to factor in break-out seasons, injuries, and basically factor the un-factorable.

The Minnesota Vikings are no different, as their history has taught them. They've been counted out at times and showed up the past nine weeks of the season to sneak into the playoffs. And yet when favored, they seem to trip at Week 16 just in time to fall on their face in Week 17, almost as though God is torturing the team and its fans.

What should we expect in the 2009-2010? That's easy. The unexpected.

In 1998, everyone thought that Randy Moss would be a distraction and that the Minnesota Vikings were simply trying to find a playoff birth rather than a bid to be the NFC champions. Lo and behold, the Vikings would become the third NFL team since the season expanded to sixteen games to go 15-1. Even fewer expected backup quarterback Randall Cunningham to come in, lead the team, and become Pro Bowler himself.

In 2007, the Vikings grabbed an injury-plagued running back out of Oklahoma, Adrian Peterson, to be the future behind slated starting running back Chester Taylor. No one could have foreseen his unexpected boom when slated in on Chester's down plays. Soon enough, Adrian Peterson broke the single game rushing record of 295 yards set by Jamal Lewis with 296 yards against the San Diego Chargers.

Who expected that?

In the 2009 draft, Minnesota selected Percy Harvin. From the Vikings' drafting history, they are known for making conservative picks, grabbing a lineman or offensive player that is significantly overrated. Harvin was recognized as a high pick regardless of his character issues.

If Brett Favre were to sign with the Vikings, it wouldn't be so much unexpected as it would just make results with the Vikings unexpected. Favre's 22-touchdown, 22-interception 2008 season proved he still the power behind the ball, but lacked the accuracy that once made him a phenom

But what difference is there between that and Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels?

What you CAN Factor

In 2009, the Vikings start the season with five of their opening eight games on the road. Fortunately, the first three are against teams that finished well below .500 in 200: the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, and St. Louis Rams.

With that in mind, Minnesota will want to try and be above .500 by Week Five, which is completely feasible. Peterson could have his best game of the season in one of those opening games against teams that had such horrid run defenses in 2008: Cleveland (28th), Detroit (32nd), St. Louis (29th), and Green Bay (26th). Although the Packers made significant improvements in the offseason with the likes of B.J. Raji.

But in those opening eight weeks before their bye week, the Vikings also face the best defense in the league in the Super Bowl champion Steelers in Pittsburgh and arguably the second-best defense against Baltimore at the dome.These games, however, should be a fantastic classic game of low-scoring offenses and grind-it-out football that the "Black and Blue" division grew famous for.

The schedule works in reverse for the second half of the year as the Vikings play at home five of the remaining eight with their three road games in Carolina, Arizona, and Chicago (which may prove to decide the NFC North). The schedule in the second half will work to Minnesota's advantage if it can keep winning at home and be successful against weaker teams away from home earlier in the season.

What you CAN'T Factor

The one tangible that can't be measured right now isn't on the roster...yet...or perhaps ever...in Brett Favre. His ability and leadership can command this offense similarly to how Gus Frerotte commanded it for much of 2008 (except with Favre, just think more touchdowns).

The play with Favre would put Bernard Berrian on tap to easily break the 1,000-receiving-yard mark on the season with roughly 10 touchdowns. Peterson should see less guys in the box. And as a result and his running game should prove even more deadly.

Most of all, with Favre, you can expect the Vikings to have the ability to rally late in games, a trait they've been missing since Randy Moss was jettisoned to Oakland and Culpepper to Miami.

Although it's arguable until he proves himself, Percy Harvin could prove to be the guy that puts the offense in true perspective. We can't jump and assume he'll come out striking like Randy Moss did in '98, but we can assume his impact will be disrespected until proven.

Key Obstacles

The NFC North ain't what she was in 2008. Detroit has fangs, Chicago's got Cutler, and the Packers have a reorganized defense that scares the bejesus out of a running back coach. With that said, the Vikings biggest obstacle in 2009 is the NFC North.

Detroit doesn't appear to be a big name, but the way they fought back on Minnesota and nearly caught a win against them (12-10 and 20-16 Vikings wins) only makes me more nervous that Minnesota did little to nothing to counteract Detroit's major changes this offseason.

Chicago is not much more than it was in 2008—besides Cutler. With Cutler, the Bears will have a great passer with an improved offensive line, but without receivers to really pass to, the acquisition of Cutler almost seems futile.

Okay, everyone in Minnesota knows it. Although Jared Allen pretty much killed Aaron Rodgers in Week 10 last year, Minnesota escaped that game with luck that Mason Crosby missed that final kick. One doesn't leave a game hanging on chance.

On that note, Minnesota really needs to bring their "A" game to Green Bay if they don't want to get caught in a season sweep. With Rodgers proving to the NFC North that he was the quarterback to look out for, Minnesota should focus their attention on their secondary and make sure that they don't get burned deep.

One last note is that Minnesota's lack of depth may prove to be their undoing come the back half of the season. John Sullivan is slated to start at center, but with just rookie free-agent signees behind him, only Artis Hicks or Ryan Cook could back him up. The same could be said for Tyrell Johnson. Although he proved his ability in '09, there is little depth behind him if he goes down.

Bottom Line...

Long story short, the Vikings can expect a 12-4 season if they beat the teams that they should, only completing Brad Childress' ongoing pattern of improving by two games each season since being signed on as the Minnesota Vikings head coach in 2006. Peterson should have near 2,000 yards barring any carries he and Taylor have to share with the kid, Percy Harvin.

The Vikings should expect a run deep into the playoffs (divisional or better). With Favre, I will openly admit that this team—with its balance—should be in Miami next February with. Then again, if we "expect" them to be playoff team, they may turn out to be 4-12.

And if you think the schedule "doesn't figure" into what to expect from Minnesota, then I request you know this. In the past two seasons beyond Week 10, the Vikings have only lost five of 16 games. Ever since number 28 arrived. Coincidence?