Storm Before the Calm: Prediction on Hughes vs. Serra

Matt Hughes and Matt Serra, two of the best welterweights in UFC’s (albeit brief) history, don’t like each other.

They’ve exchanged words over a variety of topics, ranging from the significance of Royce Gracie in the development of MMA to the significance of Jesus Christ in the salvation of man.

They’ve literally been waiting years to step into the cage together. They’ve traded words, traded blogs, even traded first names! And yet don’t be surprised if you’re bored on Saturday night.

Buried within the Pros Picks predictions over on Sherdog for Serra/Hughes, Guy Mezger (who I was happy to learn is still alive) said it best: he predicted that Hughes and Serra could potentially have a boring fight.

This is certainly possible (probable?), not only because Serra has only fought around four times in the last four years, or because Hughes is coming off some devastating beat downs (twice against GSP, once against Thiago Alvez), but also because styles make fights. 

It is possible that Serra will rough up Hughes on the feet, but more than likely, this won’t be a stand up clinic on the level of Pacquiao vs. Hatton - or even John Hess vs. Andy Anderson (does anyone know if those guys are still in the country?).

How do I see the fight going? I see both fighters circling each other, trading punches, Hughes attempting some scattered takedowns, Serra defending, once or twice successfully, and once or twice being taken to the ground, where his Jiu-Jitsu will certainly be good enough to contain Hughes, but not quite good enough to catch him in a submission.

With his aggressive style of BJJ, Serra paved the way for guys like Dustin Hazelett and Nate Diaz, but he’s been through a series of debilitating injuries and I’m just not sure if he has the physical dexterity to trap a juggernaut, religious zealot like Hughes, who, according to his blog, can do all things though Christ.

I’m picking Serra by decision, but don’t be surprised if the hype doesn’t live up to the hustle. Either way, the fight’s only three rounds, and like the Coen brothers and Phillip Roth, these men, through their past triumphs, have earned the right to our eternal collective attention.