Realistic Expectations for the 2009 Green Bay Packers

Much like last season, Green Bay's focus, whether you like it or not, might be on Brett Favre.

With Favre's arrival in Minnesota seeming more likely by the day, Green Bay might have to game plan for their former star quarterback. So much for avoiding the topic.

Regardless, there are way too many other issues Green Bay needs to address and hammer out. The Packers need to focus on what is in their control, rather than dwell on hypotheticals.

So, without further "Brett Favre Saga-Haste", let's get back on track:

Addressing the 3-4

As we saw last season, Aaron Rodgers is not the problem in Green Bay. True, he failed to lead any dramatic comebacks as his former legendary teammate had, but it was more on his suspect defense than him.

In fact, Rodgers led comebacks in several games late in the fourth quarter, only to see his defense give up a score with two minutes left. That's not the kind of defense a quarterback can depend on.

But to expect it to instantly get better during a transition to a 3-4 scheme—well, that's insane.

If anything, we may see a bit of a drop-off.

Do they have the right players in the right spots? It's close, but they have too many guys who either don't fit perfectly, or they're holdovers from other positions that they couldn't win.

For example, Brandon Chillar, Desmond Bishop, Brady Poppinga, and rookie Clay Matthews will all be battling for the outside linebacker spot opposite of Aaron Kampman.

Is this good or bad news? Well, considering none of them are completely ideal for the position, do the math for yourself.

Chillar is best-suited for the middle (as is Bishop), while Poppinga and Matthews are perfect on the outside, but not necessarily for this type of scheme.

Both linebackers are quick and nasty hitters, but Poppinga has regressed in his block-shedding and didn't register a single sack last season.

Matthews, on the other hand, has all the ability and pedigree a coach could ask for, but he is extremely raw and is still just a rookie.

Even if new defensive coordinator Dom Capers can figure the linebacker position out, he still has issues on the line.

Cullen Jenkins, if healthy, is a great defensive end for the new 3-4, but with Kampman switching to linebacker, there are no true contenders to fill in at the other end spot.

Johnny Jolly, Justin Harrell, and even Ryan Pickett have been mentioned as possible ends in this scheme, but none of them are sexy or leave you feeling good about this line.

Jolly is big and strong, but doesn't have good speed or burst. The 3-4 scheme doesn't demand elite pass-rushers, but it does ask for some pressure. Jolly might not be able to give them that.

As for Harrell, his progress report will forever be incomplete, as he's yet to stay healthy and/or make any kind of an impact.

Pickett is still up in the air, as it hasn't been determined if he'll switch to end to allow rookie B.J. Raji take over in the middle or if Raji will have to wait.

Needless to say, there are a ton of questions, and we've only covered linebacker and the defensive line.

Factor in two cornerbacks who are in their mid-30s, and you're one injured cornerback away from a crippled defense.

Can the Offense Carry This Team?

They couldn't do it last season, but that was to be expected. Despite playing extremely well, you couldn't reasonably expect Rodgers to lead the Packers to the playoffs in his first season.

However, with a year under his belt, we could see better execution, more big plays, and even some heroic late-game drives for Rodgers and this offense.

The success of this Packers team will undoubtedly hang on Rodgers, simply because it's impossible to put too much stock in a defense we know almost nothing about.

The position battles are still fresh, all the players are still learning, and once we finally do know the starting lineup, there will be a time period needed for continuity to be established.

Rodgers threw 28 touchdowns and for more than 4,000 yards on a 6-10 team last season, showing that he was obviously not the problem.

However, this year, he has to be the solution, and I believe he can do it. Does that mean a division title, though? Probably not.

Unless this new defense can turn things around in one year, they'll struggle enough that Rodgers will have to play at least as good as last year to keep their heads above water.

A 9-7 finish is very realistic and even probable, while a 10-6 finish is reachable if their defense even remotely shows up.