Patriots 2009: Fresh Start and Return to Glory Hinge On Defense

In 2006, the Patriots had an excellent 12-4 season that ended with them losing in heartbreaking fashion to the arch rival Colts, after holding a 20-6 lead in the AFC Championship game.

The team reloaded after that crushing loss, adding receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker to dominate opponents on their way to Super Bowl XLIII against the Giants.

We all know what happened next; 18-1, with the one loss being the most frustrating in team history.

The team chose not to make any major moves in the wake of that bitter disappointment, bringing back most of the same squad for last year. How would the team respond, coming off back-to-back seasons that ended in disappointment?

The best thing about the 2009 Patriots season may have been Tom Brady’s injury. Brady’s torn-up knee provided the team with a clean break from those haunting losses. Expectations were lowered, and you’d have to search long and hard to find many fans disappointed with the team’s 11-5 finish last year.

The upcoming NFL season represents both a fresh start and a return to the storied past for these New England Patriots.

This is a very different squad than the one that lost to the Giants 15 months ago. Gone are Mike Vrabel and Rodney Harrison, heroes of Super Bowls Past, and Jerod Mayo appears to be a superstar of the future on defense.

But the biggest news, of course, is the return of two-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady. With Brady back under center, expectations are that this squad will not only make it back to the playoffs, but do some damage once they get there.

How realistic are those expectations?

If the Patriots are to make it back to the Super Bowl, they will have earned it, based on their opponents’ 2008 records.

The Patriots face the third-toughest schedule in the NFL by that measure, squaring off against opponents who racked up a cumulative .590 record last year. That is by far the hardest road the Patriots have faced in recent years.

Thirteen of the Patriots’ 16 games this year will be against teams that finished 2008 .500 or better, including seven games against opponents who won at least 11 games last season.

Compare that to the last four times the team made the Super Bowl:

Season            Opponent Winning Pct.

So the team faces a difficult path back to the top of the NFL heap—but there is reason for optimism.

First and foremost is the return of Brady, who was last seen setting the NFL record for TD passes a season before tearing up his knee in the 2008 opener.  

Brady has never been known for his mobility, and as long as his deadly accuracy and calm-under-pressure focus remain, there’s no reason to expect him to regress.  

Moss and Welker remain the go-to guys on offense, and the running back corps has added depth with Fred Taylor and a healthy Sammy Morris.

Former first-round choice Laurence Maroney has yet to fulfill his potential, but he adds yet another element to the stable of backs Brady has in his arsenal.

The offensive line remains solid, led by Pro Bowler Matt Light and 2009 draft choices Sebastian Vollmer, Rich Orhnberger, and George Bussey.  Even without Brady, the team ranked fifth in total yards in the NFL in 2008, so the offense should continue to be a strength in 2009.

Questions remain, however, on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots are well positioned on the defensive line, with the starting trio of Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, and Ty Warren supported by Jarvis Green and new addition Ron Brace.

Beyond that, there are holes that must be filled if the team is to return to the Super Bowl.

Mike Vrabel—now with the Chiefs as part of the Matt Cassell trade—will need to be replaced. There are numerous candidates, including Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, Gary Guyton, and Vince Redd.

Woods has the inside track, having been with the team since 2006. A free agent from Michigan, Woods has appeared in 36 games over that span, including three starts, so he is intimately familiar with the team's scheme. He has been nearly invisible in those games, however, racking up just one sack and 59 tackles.

Crable is another Michigan alumnus, but one who finished his college career ranked seventh on the Wolverines' sack list. A third round pick in 2008, he missed all of last year on injured reserve. He has the pass-rush potential the Patriots must get from the OLB spot.

Redd and Guyton (who made several highlight-reel plays in extremely limited time last season) are likely competing to back up Woods or Crable, but could impress enough to push for more playing time.

Don't forget that ILB Tedy Bruschi will be 36 when the season starts and is more than likely to miss a few games. The other two linebacker spots are manned by Adalius Thomas and Mayo.

The secondary has also undergone a major overhaul. The team has said goodbye to Harrison, Asante Samuel, Eugene Wilson, Randall Gay, and Ellis Hobbs since the fateful February day they lost to the Giants. Connecticut safety Darius Butler has huge shoes to fill.

If the secondary can lock down on receivers for more than a few seconds, if Vrabel's replacement can be adequate, and if Brady's knee holds up, the Patriots look primed for a return to glory. These questions will be answered during preseason.