Fantasy Rookies 2009: The Running Backs (part one)

Andrew GardaMay 18, 2009

What's not to like about running backs? I could chat about - and on occasion - with them for hours and never get bored.

In so far as fantasy impact, the running backs coming out of college have less of a learning curve than the quarterbacks and wide receivers.

As I said last time, I don't expect many Steve Slaton's here. Guys who could surprise because you don't know who they are. There are a ton of backs to like overall though and long term, some real potential.

We start off with a trio of backs with the best chance to have an impact immediately.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN
While a gasp inducing pick for many—myself included—Moreno has an excellent blend of talent and opportunity. I don’t foresee most of the guys behind him taking too many carries away if he has a good camp.

Buckhalter and Jordan are threats but not hugely so. Moreno can do everything – hit the hole hard and run through the tackles, catch the ball out of the backfield and he can even block well. He might need to adjust his running style, which is very aggressive and might lead to too much abuse.

But in what will probably be a one cut and run rushing attack, Moreno could have significant success and get a bunch of carries. I know, historically, with DEN RB you have to be extra careful. But new coach, new offense—I think a new attitude as well.

Dynasty
Moreno should be off the board no later than three and probably will be gone in one. While the offense could struggle this year, I think he can do enough well to be on the field three downs and even in a timeshare short term, he’ll be worth a ton long term.

Redraft
He’s one of the few guys I would take to use as a consistent starter, though you have to figure flex/RB2 depending. But his upside is pretty good. He could go as anywhere between the 25th onward in a redraft and I don’t think I would blink.

Chris Wells, RB, AZ
In the conversation for top rookie RB, Wells fell into a very good situation in Arizona. Edgerrin James is gone (although you can blame some of his underproduction on lack of use) and Tim Hightower showed us he was not able to carry the full load last season.

Wells—an outstanding downhill runner with good burst, vision and top speed—has some durability concerns and isn’t a great receiver. But I think in the injury concern isn’t as bad as many fear. The lack of good receiving skills may hurt him on long third downs and that’s why he’s behind Moreno here.

He might be the better back, but he’ll be on the field one less down. But when he's on the field, he has an outstanding pass attack to keep the opposing defenses honest and that will give him good room to get to top speed and take off.

Also, he could work hard to improve his receiving game and that could make him even more dangerous.

Dynasty
Like Moreno, Wells will go in the top three of any Dynasty draft and he should. He won’t get you as many points in a PPR, so again, this is another reason he is behind Moreno. But if you are in the 1,2,3 slot in your draft, be very happy.

Redraft
Could be a guy who will go near Moreno (yes again) somewhere after RB25 and on. He has the upside to be better than that so he might go earlier than 25th back off the board, but I don’t expect Forte or Johnson here.

He should be a very reliable but you can’t expect more than you would from other backs who we’re not sure about like Derrick Ward in Tampa and part timer/scoring machines like LenDale White.

Donald Brown, RB, IND
I like what Brown brings to the table—he has good hands and can catch, can make a big play even when he doesn’t have the speed to run away from defenders, has great vision and can break tackles. I don’t know what to expect from him and Addai going forward.

Unlike Moreno who I believe to get most of the carries in Denver and Wells who is just a better back than his partner Hightower, Brown is a guy who has a legit starting back next to him.

Addai’s biggest problem is injury—and Brown will get the rock enough to keep him healthy.

But I have two questions.

First, what if Addai is healthy? Do we see Addai retain 75 percent of the snaps? And who is getting the third down/short yardage carries? Neither Addai nor Brown are short yardage backs. So who is getting the short yardage? And if it isn’t them—well how much will that hurt their overall numbers?

Dynasty
I think long term, Brown will end up with the starting gig. It’s just a feeling as Addai is spending too much time hurt while Brown has proven (at least in college) that he can carry a full load. Brown is easily a top five rookie pick, but keep in mind that he may only be a part timer for you at least the first year.

If you have Addai, and happen to see him drop to you, I would consider him even over the other two, since you are already invested in the Colts run game.

Redraft
Because there is so much clutter around how this RBBC split will go, Brown drops a little further down the board in a redraft—even in a PPR league. He could have tremendous numbers—but he could also be average.

I would say somewhere in the neighborhood of RB35 and beyond – amongst fringers who start but are aging and seeing smaller production totals (like Jamal Lewis) and backups with upside (like Felix Jones).

All those guys have some value either as backups to big backs or are in situations which are cloudy enough to give them a shot to emerge at some points.