No 0 This Year For Lions

No, not at all. In fact, I  peg the Lions for three wins this season.

Predictions are easy to make and even as I write "three wins," it could be less or it could be more, but not much either way. But, if you'd like a good reason to believe my prediction for this season, ask my brother: I called last year's 0-16 debacle.

The question has been asked before, which is more difficult - going 16-0 or 0-16? In back-to-back seasons NFL fans were treated to both. I say going 0-16 is tougher, so I'll firmly say the Lions will not lose every game this year.

Let's first examine the three-win prediction.

The Lions have a tough schedule ahead. They get the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, runner-up Arizona Cardinals and playoff qualifiers Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings. Among the aforementioned, the first three are the toughest opponents.

Beyond the Vikings, the Lions still must complete with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. With quarterback upgrades in the Windy City and Frozen Tundra, that spells four losses for Detroit.

The Lions will also play all teams from the NFC West and the AFC North, as well as the New Orleans Saints and the Washington Redskins.

The three wins I see for Detroit occur in weeks two (at home against Minnesota), eight (at home against St. Louis) and 13 (at Cincinnati). The combined 2008 record of the opponents is 16-31-1. That doesn't sound like a stretch, but I did leave out the 4-12 Seattle Seahawks and the 4-12 Cleveland Browns.

Dan Orlovsky made his first start as a Lion when he took the field in Minnesota last year in week five. The Vikes came away with a 12-10 win. When the Lions hosted the Vikes in week 13, Culpepper was making his fifth start for Detroit and the Lions lost a 20-16 decision.

When the Lions host Minnesota in week two, Culpepper will be the starter, likely lining up against Tavaris Jackson.  The Lions will be coming off a loss after visiting New Orleans in week one. With a reliable Culpepper in the backfield, the Lions will edge the run-happy Vikings by nullifying their ground attack with the help of Larry Foote. The Lions will edge the Vikes for their first regular-season home win since Dec. 23, 2007.

In week eight, the Lions will host 2008's 2-14 St. Louis Rams. Right now, the Rams are a mess. They have four quarterbacks on the roster and the depth chart is headlined by Marc Bulger. They don't have a number one receiver and their top running back, Steven Jackson, is injury prone.

By week eight, they could have already down-graded at QB to Kyle Boller or even Brock Berlin. Brian Leonard or Antonio Pittman could be the starting running back and your guess is as good as mine when it comes to starting receivers.

The only team to allow more points than the Lions last season was the Rams and St. Louis was 28th in yards allowed. Just like the Lions won't win many games in 2009, neither will the Rams, but this one will end in Detroit's favor, especially at home.

Detroit's final win of the season will come against 2008's 4-11-1 Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are the Lions in the AFC, but with more recent success. However, it's difficult to dispute they're on the slide.

They still rely on the oft injured Carson Palmer behind center. In fact, they are so invested in Palmer, his backup is J.T. O'Sullivan - an ex-Lion. Behind Palmer is Cedric Benson, who likes his problems off the field. Benson hasn't been the same since Super Bowl XLI when he injured his knee. If those aren't enough problems, Chris Henry and Chad Ochocinco are still on the roster.

The Bengals didn't do enough in the offseason to bolster their defense to challenge Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith. Culpepper is good enough to get CJ the ball and that will set up the run attack. Detroit's defense should be solid enough by week 13 to stop Palmer and Benson.

My realistic expectation is that Detroit finishes the regular season 3-13.

If, however, things work out in the best possible manner for the Lions, they will finish the regular season 6-10. Included among those wins are the aforementioned Bengals, Rams and Vikings. If they won six games, though, they would also win in Minnesota and Seattle and when they host Cleveland.

Because I've already covered Minnesota, there's no reason to re-hash that scenario, so we'll focus on Seattle.

When the 2009-10 season kicks off, Seattle will be four years removed from its Super Bowl season. In the years following the Super Bowl, Seattle went 9-7, 10-6 and 4-12. They finished the 2005 season 13-3.

There's no doubt they've been on a slide as they've watched Matt Hasselbeck get older and suffer injuries. Hasselbeck only played seven games last year and has only played in 35 of 48 games over the last three years. Even with the addition of T.J. Houshmanzadeh, I expect the offense to struggle due in large part to a weak running game. 

The running game is in question without Shaun Alexander as Julius Jones looks to fill shoes Alexander left vacant two seasons ago. Jones played in 15 games for the 'Hawks last season and amassed 698 yards with two touchdowns. He also lost two fumbles.

Counting this game as a win initially would have been easier if the Lions had them at home, but Qwest is a difficult place to play. Predicting a Lions road win is tough considering their last win away from Ford Field came Oct. 28, 2007 in Chicago.

The Lions sixth win, although not in order, would come against the Cleveland Browns. Before the 2008-09 season got underway, Cleveland was the media darling, playoff bound after their 2007-08 success. It was believed the talent quad featuring Braylon Edwards, Jamal Lewis, Kellen Winslow and quarterback Derek Anderson would lead the team far into the playoffs.

It didn't take long, though, to see the dysfunctional Browns were destined for a whole lot of nothing. They started 0-3 and finished 4-12.

The downfall was led by Anderson who played in 10 games, threw nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. In the previous season, Anderson played in all 16 games, threw 29 TDs and 19 Int. The question now is who will be at the helm for the '09 Browns, Anderson or Brady Quinn?

With Winslow gone, the QB position in flux, a disgruntled Edwards and an aging Lewis, it would be easy to say this is a win for Detroit, but I do expect the Browns to be tested early by the AFC North, so they will be a formidable foe. But in the best case scenario, the Lions will get the win.

A worst case scenario would see the Lions losing all 16 games again, but as I said before going 0-16 is the most difficult task, even for the worst team. Therefore, I say the realistic worst-case scenario for Detroit has them winning one game. That win would come at home against St. Louis.

There is no doubt Detroit is a team in transition. I wouldn't say they are rebuilding because that's a running joke since 1957. The team has some new players, with a new coaching staff. Don't forget, the Miami Dolphins finished 2008 1-15, but then recovered to go 11-5, tops in the AFC East.

They even hosted a playoff game. The NFL, despite its efforts to distance itself from gambling, is a crap-shoot.