Another Wide Open Year In The NFC North

In all likelihood the NFC North is going to be another closely contested division in 2009. 

Three out of the four teams can be called division contenders, and I doubt any of them are going to run away with things by posting a 13-3 record.

In one corner of the triangle you have 2008 division champion Minnesota. In another the Green Bay Packers stand. The final preseason contender is the Chicago Bears.

As for the Lions, well, no team has ever gone 0-16 before, so the precedent of going from 0-16 in one season to division champion in the next doesn't exist yet.

That precedent probably won't exist after the 2009 season either, so I'll rule them out of the division champ race.

The Vikings are the favorite because they possess the division's best player in Adrian Peterson in addition to the division's best defense.

While quarterback is currently an issue in Minnesota—with Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson battling it out for No. 1 on the depth chart—there have been an awful lot of rumors about a certain No. 4 returning to the NFC North.

Brett Favre didn't look very good down the final stretch of the 2008 season, but he is certainly a better option than either Jackson or Rosenfels, even if he is past his prime. His addition would make Minnesota the 2009 favorite even more than it already is.

Green Bay is far more talented that its 6-10 record in 2008 indicated. Aaron Rodgers proved himself to be an excellent NFL quarterback, and he's probably the best in the division - even with the addition of Jay Cutler to the Bears and even if Favre goes to Minnesota.

For the Packers it's about staying healthy and playing better defense.

Green Bay has switched to a 3-4 defensive scheme. I'm unsure of the reason, but usually teams switch to put more pressure on the quarterback, because the 3-4 allows for some more creative blitz plays.

The Packers wound up with two first-round picks in this year's NFL Draft and used them on defensive tackle B.J. Raji and linebacker Clay Matthews. Apparently Green Bay sees them fitting into its new defensive scheme. But could their inexperience be exploited?

Detroit is still a lost cause to me.

Sure, the Dophins and Falcons made huge turnarounds in 2008 from awful 2007 seasons to make the playoffs, but a turnaround like that just doesn't seem likely for the traditionally awful Lions.

Top draft pick Matthew Stafford could put on a Matt Ryan-like performance in Detroit, or he could be on the bench for the first half of the season or even the whole season.

Calvin Johnson is a tremendous talent at wide receiver and drafting tight end Brandon Pettigrew should help Detroit's passing game. But are those two enough to provide a consistently dangerous offense? 

Ernie Sims is a tackling machine at linebacker for Detroit. The Lions have also added linebacker Julian Peterson, who has been a disruptive defensive force for a while now in the NFL. But who will provide pressure from the defensive line and cover receivers in the secondary?

The team did win seven games in 2007, but I don't think you can honestly say the Lions will be competing for the NFC North title.

The Lions just have too many major holes to be considered a division champion contender.

They are better than last year.

They won't lose every game again.

They will have some kind of impact on the race by probably beating at least one division foe one time. But they won't be challenging for first.

That brings me to the Chicago Bears and their chances in the NFC North in 2009.

The Bears are probably the third best team in the division on paper. Green Bay has far more talent on the roster than Chicago, and Minnesota's defense plus Adrian Peterson is far better than any combination the Bears could put together.

Last year the Bears finished second, and had a chance in the final few games of the season to win the division.

The team has virtually the same roster, the key difference being a large upgrade at the quarterback position with the addition of Cutler.

Now, it's easy to say the Bears were competitive with a weaker quarterback in 2008 and that the strengthening of the NFL's most important position would immediately improve Chicago's win total.

But that's too simple an analysis. Football is too complex a game.

Chicago will be competitive again. The Bears blew quite a few late-game leads in 2008 and were right there in most every game, something I don't think will vanish in 2009.

They lost to Carolina in the closing moments.

They blew a fourth-quarter lead against Tampa Bay to lose in overtime.

And they blew a game they never should have had a lead in against Atlanta, when the Bears miraculously scored a go-ahead touchdown with 11 seconds remaining only to have the Falcons miraculously kick a field goal with no time left to secure a win.

The past two years the Bears have found ways to be around .500.

In 2007, the team was coming off a Super Bowl appearance and was generally disappointing on its way to a 7-9 record.

In 2008, not much was expected from the Bears and they managed to finish 9-7.

While the addition of Cutler and the development of running back Matt Forte are very important parts of the 2009 Chicago Bears, it's going to come down to how the defense plays to determine how successful the team will be.

Last season, the Bears were 30th in the league is defending the pass. The team can't have another season where it is that poor defending the pass. If it does, the Bears won't be division champs.

The defense was great against the run, allowing the fifth fewest rushing yards in the league. Chicago will need another effort like that to be in the division race for the whole season again in 2009.

If Chicago can shore up its passing defense, and stay healthy in the secondary, it will really have a shot at winning the North.

If it can't, the team will likely land just below .500 and miss the playoffs, regardless of how many yards Cutler throws for and how many yards Forte accounts for.