Only A Catastrophic Event Could Stop Woods From Catching Nicklaus

Tiger Woods has only won one out of his last six events.

He is not hitting the ball well and it appears that more rust may have accumulated on his game than first expected.

What’s wrong with Tiger?

Has he lost his game forever?

Is he never going to break Jack Nicklaus' record?

Let’s all just take a deep breath and calm down.

In the six stroke-play events Woods has played since his return, he has had five top-10 finishes and a win. 

Obviously, we don’t often measure Tiger Woods against the rest of the field, but, his performance in just six events since returning from reconstructive ACL surgery is better than most of the PGA Tour could hope to accomplish in a season.

As far as Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major wins, Woods is not even looking at the panic button, let alone being even remotely close to pushing it.

Here are three reasons why it would take a catastrophic event to stop Woods from surpassing Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 major championships in the coming years.

1)Age, Age, Age!

Most stats you will see comparing the pace in which Woods and Nicklaus got to 14 majors are based on the number of majors played and not their age.

Woods won his 14th major at the 2008 US Open at the age of 32.  At 32 years old, Woods was a full three years ahead of Jack in getting to 14 major wins.

Furthermore, Jack didn’t win his 15th major until the age of 38.

This means that from the point Woods won his 14th major, he had six years to win his 15th major and remain ahead of Nicklaus pace.

At this very moment, Woods still has a full five years to win a major and stay ahead of Nicklaus pace in terms of major championship wins and age.

I certainly wouldn’t bet against Woods not winning a single major over the next five years. Would you?

Based on age alone, Woods is drastically ahead of Nicklaus' pace.

2) The Modern Day Golfer Has a Longer Prime

Many believe that one of Jack’s greatest assets during his career was longevity.

That is somewhat true. 

Jack won his first major at the age of 22, and his last major at the 1986 Masters at the age of 46.

However, Jack’s dominance came pretty much to a halt at the age of 40.

Following his win at the 1980 PGA Championship at the age of 40, Jack won just two PGA Tour events and no majors in the five years between his 17th major in 1980 and his 18th major in 1986.

This is one of the main reasons why Jack’s win at the 1986 Masters was so incredible—because of how amazingly improbable it was.

Jack came within a hair of winning the 1982 US Open at Pebble Beach, but, for the most part, Jack’s dominance really came to an end in 1980 at the age of 40.

That is not at all a knock or criticism of Jack; that was just the way it was back then. 

Fitness in golf was almost unheard-of back in the 50s, 60s, 70s and even the 80s. Equipment was also a lot less forgiving in Jack’s day than high-tech equipment used by the modern day tour professional.

The prime of the modern day golfer is lasting significantly longer than in Jack’s day.

Vijay Singh has won 18 tournaments after the age of 40, and won three times last season alone at the age of 46.

Kenny Perry, now 48, has won four times in the past nine months, was a member of last year’s American Ryder Cup Team, and very nearly won the Masters this past April.

Phil Mickelson is 39, has won twice already this season and might very well be playing some of the best golf of his entire career right now.

It would come as a huge surprise if Mickelson doesn’t remain within the top 10 in the world golf rankings for the next three to five years and doesn’t wind up winning at least one or two more major championships.

So, what does this mean?

Well, it means that the combination of fitness and high-tech, forgiving equipment have allowed the modern day tour professional to extend their primes at least three to five years longer than in Jack’s day.

This is not unique to golf—the primes of athlete’s careers in virtually every sport are longer than they were just 20 years ago.

So, this means that if you count the five years Woods is currently ahead of Jack in terms of major wins and age, plus the three to five years longer that Tiger's prime is likely to last, Woods has an eight- to 10-year advantage over Nicklaus right now.

Will Woods eventually slow down? 

Of course he will.

But, predicting when Woods will slow down based solely on when Jack Nicklaus and other golfers of 50s, 60s and 70s began to slow down is a meaningless measurement.

Yes, Jack may have slowed down in his late 30s, but, player’s primes in that day were lasting to about 40, whereas today a player’s prime can last into their mid-40s.  So, is it that far-fetched to believe that Tiger will most likely began slowing down five years later than Nicklaus began slowing down?

If that’s the case, Woods may be looking at a very good possibility of shattering Nicklaus record, and not simply breaking it.

Obviously Woods is coming off of a major knee surgery.

But, according to most experts and statistics on reconstructed ACLs, it is in fact highly unlikely that an athlete will re-injure their ACL after it has been surgically reconstructed.

Could Woods suffer another completely separate injury?

Of course he could.  But so could just about any other athlete playing any other sport on the face of the planet.

If you can predict injuries and when they will occur, you had better head to Vegas right now and start throwing down some bets before your magical future-predicting powers wear off.

3) Level of Dominance

Jack was certainly dominant in his day; there is no question about that.  But—sorry Jack Nicklaus fans—he was just not as dominant as Woods has been.

Through Jack’s first 228 tournaments, he had 38 wins which is a winning percentage of 16.6 percent.

Through Woods’ first 228 tournaments, he has 66 wins and a winning percentage of 29 percent.

At the age of 32, Woods had won 14 majors, compared to the 11 won by Nicklaus at the same age.  Furthermore, Woods is so far ahead of Nicklaus in terms of major wins and age, he would need to go five years and 20 majors without a single win just to fall back even with Jack’s pace.

Again, Jack Nicklaus was certainly dominant; you don’t win 73 PGA Tour events and 18 majors without completely dominating the PGA Tour during your prime.

But, as dominant as Jack was, he was still a long way off from being as dominant as Woods has been up until the exact same point of their careers.

Even if Tiger is not as dominant after his knee surgery, he has a very long way to fall just to pull equal with Jack in terms of winning percentage and major wins through the same point in their careers.

Is it possible that Woods may not break Jack’s record of 18 major wins?

Of course it is.  Anything is possible and stranger things have surely happened in the world of sports.

But, is it likely?

I certainly wouldn’t bet a cent of my hard-earned money on Tiger Woods not breaking Jack Nicklaus record of 18 major wins.