Falcon's Success Depends On Ryan's Arm

Matt Ryan’s importance to the Atlanta Falcons franchise is hard to gauge by just numbers alone. His selection in the 2008 draft represented a new beginning for a club reeling from the Michael Vick fiasco. Bringing in Ryan took a lot of focus off Vick’s incarceration and the dispute the management was having over the former No. 7's remaining contract.

Plus, while the brass was promoting Ryan as the new face of the franchise, they were also able to quietly push malcontents like DeAngelo Hall and Alge Crumpler out the back door.

Now, Ryan had a nice rookie season, but he’s really got his work cut out for him in his sophomore year. In 2008, the Falcons played only five games against teams that ranked in the top 15 of the league in pass defense, but in those five games, Ryan threw seven of his 11 interceptions and was sacked 10 of the 17 times he was sacked last year.

This year, Ryan will play eight games against teams ranked in the top half of the league in pass defense.

What’s really troubling is how the Falcons fared when Ryan was forced to throw the ball. The Falcons were 11-0 when Ryan threw the ball 30 or fewer times, but they lost all five games where he was forced to throw over 30 passes in a game. This season, teams are going to work harder to stop Michael Turner and force Ryan to beat them with his arm.

To make things worse, Turner may not get many chances to bail Ryan out this season. After facing only four of the league's best run defenses in 2008, Turner will face nine of the best this year. In the four games the Falcons played against top-15 run defenses this past campaign, Turner averaged only 75.5 yards per game. He was also held to 3.0 yards per carry and managed only one touchdown in those four games combined.

While he did manage to top 100 yards against one of those teams (his former club, the Chargers, who were ranked 11th in run D), the other three games were against top-five defenses and Turner ran for 70, 58, and 54 yards against those teams.

And one more reason Ryan will be needed to step up this season: The Falcons only faced one team whose defense was ranked among the top 15 in both pass and run defense, but they will face five such teams this season. Atlanta faces all four NFC East teams, all of which are in this category; the fifth is none other than the New England Patriots.

It’s not impossible (although it’s highly unlikely) that the Falcons will have another 11-5 season this year, but a merely winning season is more probable. With Matt Ryan having a year under his belt, offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey will open up the offense in order to take advantage of Ryan’s strengths.

One thing is for sure, whether the Falcons sink or swim this season will be mostly dependent on Ryan’s arm.