Realistic Expectations for the 2009 San Francisco 49ers Offense

When it comes to assembling a coaching staff in the NFL, a head coach or general manager may have to decide whether a cohesive coaching unit of like minds is more important than proven success, or if a potential clash of personalities is a worthy risk in a team's pursuit of a championship.

If you pose that question to San Francisco 49ers Head Coach Mike Singletary, he'll no doubt tell you his priority is having fellow coaches that think like he does.

As for previous success in the league, that may just have to come later down the line.

Singletary has been vocal in his desire to have coaches that share his philosophy since his hiring of Jimmy Raye as offensive coordinator this past offseason, but he hasn't needed to explain himself.

His decision to part ways with 2008 play-caller Mike Martz, a former Super Bowl champion coordinator that improved the 49er offense from last to 23rd, shows that results aren't always the bottom line for Singletary.

While the 49ers head coach has been a source of optimism since taking the team over in the middle of last season, Raye's arrival in San Francisco isn't quite being met with that same optimism, as his previous stints as an offensive coordinator have been far from spectacular.

An employer of the three digit offensive system created by former San Diego Chargers Head Coach Don Coryell, Raye could provide some stability to the 49er offense that was coached under the same style of offense in 2006 by Norv Turner.

He has pledged to command the tough, physical run-first offense that Singletary felt he couldn't have with Martz calling the plays, with assurances that the '09 49er offense won't be one-dimensional and will throw the football when the pass is available or necessary.

The limited optimism that has followed the Raye hiring is due to his lackluster record in previous OC roles; his previous teams have gone just 67-125, and by trading in Martz for Raye the 49ers are swapping out the 21.2 points per game they averaged last season for just over 18 points per game throughout Raye's career.

Forty-Niner fans eager for a blast from the past that included the innovative and potent offenses of Bill Walsh and his disciples may have to keep their hopes in check this season.

In his defense, Raye presided over one of the greatest seasons any offensive player has ever had, when Los Angeles Rams runningback Eric Dickerson set the single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards in 1984 with Raye running the offense in L.A.

Suffice to say, Raye's strength as a coach appears to lie in the same area the 49ers are strongest talent-wise—the running game--and that appears to be the team's best chance for success this season.

The 49ers in 2009 won't be a run-oriented offense simply because their head coach likes it that way, the team is built to pound the football and control the clock.

The star of the team is Frank Gore, the Pro Bowl back who owns the 49ers single-season rushing record, set in 2006 when Turner was running an offense similar to what Raye brings to San Francisco.

Barring injury, Gore has the talent to mimic the success Dickerson had under Raye, and a return to the performances Gore had in '06 could have this team in contention for the NFC West championship.

The arrival of some promising young backs to spell Gore this season and a former Pro Bowler at tackle, Marvel Smith, will have the 49ers in a better position to control games on the ground.

The question mark at quarterback right now is who will start the season under center for the 49ers, however once that battle is settled other questions will remain.

Will Alex Smith or Shaun Hill be able to achieve consistency?

Will the offensive line be able to protect the quarterback in '09, or will Smith or Hill be under constant duress like last season?

Will the young receiving core be able to follow Issac Bruce's example and make life a little easier on the rest of the offense, or will a meager 60 catches lead the team in receiving again this season?

Clearly, Raye has his work cut out for him, and at 62 years old, this is likely his final shot at being a winning offensive coordinator. The talent he has to work with isn't spectacular, but improved from the group Martz inherited and brought out of the NFL statistics cellar in 2008.

Chances are good that Gore will be able to return to Pro Bowl form this season with the style of football Raye likes to play, and while there is always pressure on the quarterback to perform, Hill or Smith won't have as much as they would have playing for Martz.

Simply being servicable and managing the game while Gore hammers the ball should be enough for the '09 signal-caller, whoever that may be.

Unfortunately for San Francisco, just having a solid rushing attack isn't enough to win a championship in the NFL. And if history serves as a reference, Raye's track record doesn't suggest he'll be an upgrade from the pass-happy Martz.

Then again, despite what both Raye and Singletary say about the new offensive coordinator being in San Francisco for the long haul, Raye could be keeping his seat warm for someone else.

Down the coast in San Diego is a coach that could find himself on the hotseat in 2009.

If the former 49er coordinator Turner stumbles into another 8-8 record or even worse this season, chances are the San Diego brass will send him packing.

Singletary hasn't been shy in his admiration for Turner as a play-caller, and if he becomes available, don't be surprised if Coach Raye finds himself in a different role.