Predicting the Cincinnati Reds' Starting Rotation for the Playoffs

The Cincinnati Reds are drawing ever closer to playoff baseball—their magic number is 10 in case you were wondering. In the coming weeks, the Reds will be shuffling their rotation in in order to give themselves the best options for a postseason rotation.

The Reds' rotation will have a go at the rest of the division without their ace Johnny Cueto, who has been dealing with a rather long string of injuries, dating back to his most recent start on June 28.

The 27-year-old righty has made some progress in his quest to return to the mound. However, with the minor league season having ended, the Reds have few options as to where Cueto can get regular work as a starter.

For that reason, the most likely scenario involves him working as a reliever. Cueto told Cincinnati Enquirer beat writer, John Fay, "I’ll do whatever they want," in regards to his preference to work in the rotation or out of the bullpen.

In any event, the team still possesses five quality starters—Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake and Tony Cingrani—all of whom have proven capable of taking on the responsibility of pitching in a playoff atmosphere. Each of the pitchers listed above has their own history and track record against their proposed opponents, which could lead to a multitude of scenarios for the Reds' starting rotation.

Cingrani is the most unlikely candidate for a rotation spot. With all the off days built into playoff baseball, the need for a fifth starter is minimal, so we're left to ponder on the order in which the Reds will turn to Latos, Leake, Arroyo and Bailey.

In this article, we'll look at how the Reds could configure their postseason rotation against each of their four possible playoff opponents, those being the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals.*

To set up the matchups with these teams, we'll use the current MLB standings. This means that the Reds would slot into the second wild card spot against the Pirates. Following this one-game playoff, the Reds would take on the Braves in the NLDS, and then either the Cardinals, or the Dodgers in the NLCS.

Let's begin with the one-game, winner-take-all matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

*Looking at a World Series rotation at this point in the game would be senseless as it is unclear as to who the Reds would play if they got to that point. The most likely scenario, given all of the off days scheduled between the NLCS and World Series, is that the Reds reset their rotation entirely. Another article, for another day.

Wild Card Round

The Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are stuck in the middle of a heated fight for the NL Central division title.

The Reds and Pirates meet up in this hypothetical matchup between the NL Central's hard-luck losers from the regular season. The Reds will need to send the starter who gives them the best chance to win one game, on the road, against this year's incarnation of the Pirates.

To begin, we'll look at each of the Reds' five pitchers and how they've fared in their careers at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

Splits at PNC Park	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	H/9	HR/9
Mat Latos	5	5	3-0	31.2	2.27	1.04	10.8	2.6	4.22	6.8	1.1
Homer Bailey	6	6	5-0	45.0	1.40	0.76	6.2	2.4	2.58	4.4	0.0
Bronson Arroyo	24	17	7-7	112.0	4.10	1.40	5.2	3.1	1.71	9.6	0.9
Mike Leake	8	8	1-3	49.0	2.94	1.31	5.1	3.5	1.47	8.3	0.7

Based on the numbers, Bailey needs to start this game. The 27-year-old owns a sparkling stat line against the Pirates. In 45 career innings at PNC Park, Bailey has allowed just 22 hits, and seven earned runs while striking out 31.

Playing in Pittsburgh lends itself to Bailey's game considering his nature as a fly-ball pitcher—.87 GB/FB ratio. The right-hander has improved in every season of his big league career, the same can be said for his ability to pitch in Great American Ball Park, but he's a markedly better pitcher in bigger ballparks—as are most pitchers.

Bailey has the Pirates number. In fact, just last season, Homer tossed his first career no-no on September 28th at PNC Park.

By starting Homer, the Reds will also allow him sufficient rest to come back and pitch again in the middle part of the NLDS, which we'll discuss on the next slide.

Final Prediction for One-Game Wild Card Round

Homer Bailey starts in Pittsburgh

National League Division Series vs. Atlanta Braves

By starting Homer Bailey in the hypothetical Wild Card matchup, the Reds are handcuffed a little here into starting Mat Latos in Game 1 of the NLDS matchup against the Atlanta Braves. Latos is the best available starter anyway so with this part of the matchup set in stone, we'll look at the way the rest of the rotation will round out.

With Latos in as the Game 1 starter, we turn our attention to Leake, Arroyo and Bailey. Here's how the three have fared against the Braves over the course of their careers, as well as in the 2013 season.

Vs. Braves	G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	H/9	HR/9
Mike Leake 2013	1	1	0-1	7.0	5.14	1.29	7.0	1.3	6.00	10.3	2.6
Career	4	4	2-1	27.0	2.33	1.07	6.7	2.00	3.33	7.7	1.0
Bronson Arroyo 2013	2	2	1-1	12.0	3.75	1.17	7.5	2.3	3.33	8.3	1.5
Career	18	17	7-4	96.1	5.14	1.60	6.1	3.6	1.71	10.8	2.1
Homer Bailey 2013	2	2	0-1	11.0	6.55	1.82	11.5	4.1	2.80	12.3	0.8
Career	5	5	2-1	29.2	3.94	1.38	7.9	3.3	2.36	9.1	0.6

Mike Leake has the best stat line against the Braves over the course of his career, but his lone start against the Braves this season is hardly confidence-inspiring.

Leake has had a good season against teams above .500. Over 15 starts against plus-.500 competition, Leake owns a 5-4 record with a 4.35 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and ratios of 5.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 2.75 K/BB and 9.0 H/9.

With that being said, the Reds will likely opt to start Leake in Game 3.

This move allows the Reds to do several things. First, it allows the team to switch up the looks the Braves will get between Games 1 and 2. Mat Latos and Bronson Arroyo are two very different types of pitchers.

Latos is a hard thrower who pitches downhill and very much over the top. Arroyo on the other hand, is well known for showing batters different arm angles and different variations of his off-speed pitches, especially on breaking balls.

The move also allows the Reds to bring back Bailey on five days rest, where he's at his absolute best. In 2013, Bailey has made nine of his 29 starts on five days of rest. In those nine starts, the 27-year-old boasts a strong stat line, featuring a 2.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and ratios of 9.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.42 K/BB and 5.9 H/9.

Should the two teams need a Game 4 to decide the series, Bailey gives the Reds arguably their best opportunity to win the game given his track record for success in the late months of the MLB season—2.76 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.35 K/BB in September and October.

Final Predictions for NLDS

1. Mat Latos
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Mike Leake
4. *Homer Bailey
5. *Mat Latos

*Games 4-5 are played only if necessary.

National League Championship Series vs. Cardinals/Dodgers

The matchup here will be determined by the prior series, which in this instance would be played between the Cardinals and Dodgers. I'm not going to make any predictions as to who will win this matchup—although I think the Cardinals are the better team.

In any event though, that doesn't really matter much because the Reds' starting rotation will largely be determined by the outcome of the prior series versus the Braves.

Games 4 and 5 of the NLDS come on October 7 and October 9 respectively, with NLCS play picking up on October 11. Should the Reds manage to sweep the Braves—or whoever their opponent may be—in the NLDS, the team would have four days to rest their starters and reset the rotation for the NLCS.

If this proves to be the case, here's the rotation they'll run with against both the Dodgers, or Cardinals.

1. Homer Bailey
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Mat Latos
4. Mike Leake
5. *Homer Bailey
6. *Bronson Arroyo
7. *Mat Latos

*Games 5-7 are played only if necessary.

The Reds, in an attempt to keep everyone on a similar rest schedule, would opt for a rotation similar to the one outlined in the NLDS section. The only difference here being Bailey as the Game 1 starter, given his availability for the role.

A more likely scenario however has the Reds finishing the NLDS in four or five games. Here's how each of those scenarios would effect the team's starting rotation, beginning with the NLDS having ended on October 7, in four games.

1. Mat Latos
2. Mike Leake
3. Homer Bailey
4. Bronson Arroyo
5. *Mat Latos
6. *Mike Leake
7. *Homer Bailey

*Games 5-7 are played only if necessary. 

The second scenario, as mentioned above, would take place if the Reds NLDS series went to five games and ended on October 9.

1. Bronson Arroyo
2. Homer Bailey
3. Mike Leake
4. Mat Latos
5. *Bronson Arroyo
6. *Homer Bailey
7. *Mat Latos

 *Games 5-7 are played only if necessary.

The rotations drawn out above give the Reds their best chance of winning. All three proposed rotations give the Reds one start from each pitcher, with Games 5, 6 and 7 occupied by the duo of Latos and Bailey, with Leake or Arroyo stepping in for a critical start in either Game 5 or 6.

The NLCS is a long way away, hell, the playoffs haven't even begun.

However, if the Reds hope to defeat the likes of St. Louis or Los Angeles, or any postseason team for that matter, they'll need to maximize the number of starts they receive from both Latos and Bailey. These two starters have proven capable of turning in clutch performances in key games prior to and during the 2013 season.

Leake and Arroyo have also proven to be worthy of rotation spots in the postseason, yet reliability is a huge factor in selecting a postseason rotation, and the two have a tendency to get bombed on if they're not working with their absolute best stuff.

September will help make a lot of these decisions for the Reds. But if the season ended tonight, this is how the Reds would set themselves up in October.

All stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and are current through play on September 11, 2013.

Playoff schedule courtesy of MLB.com.

Based on his recent injury history, and a CBSSports.com article by Mike Axisa, it appears that Cueto will not rejoin the Reds in a starting capacity and was therefore not considered for a rotation spot in this article. If that were to change, pencil him in as either the starter in the Wild Card Round, or the Game 1 or Game 2 starter in the NLDS.

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