Good News for Carolina Fans: Atlanta's the Pick To Win the South

Predicting a division can be tricky business. Just ask division-predicting professionals who get paid in July to tell the masses who's going to be where in December—even though they're hardly ever right.

Exhibit A? The 2008 NFC South.

Last summer, the overwhelming favorites to walk through was was considered one of the NFL's weakest divisions were the New Orleans Saints. Professional handicapper Jason Lowrey told gamblers to go with the Saints, followed by the Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons.

Six of nine Sports Illustrated NFL writers also went with the Saints. Athlon picked the Saints. So did Lindy's, Pro Football Weekly, and Sporting News.

You remember the Saints, right? The team that finished dead last in what turned out to be the strongest division in the NFL? Whoops.

So obviously that means it's time to predict the 2009 NFC South. What could possibly go wrong?

Well, that depends on the team. For the Panthers, perhaps your only real pass-rushing threat could refuse to sign your contract offer. If you're the Falcons, defenses could use an offseason of film study to discover that there are some chinks in second-year quarterback Matt Ryan's armor after all.

The Buccaneers might have to worry about adjusting to a new coaching staff.

The Saints could have a talented running back trying to come from risky microfracture surgery while at the same time hoping to shore up one of the NFL's worst defenses with only four draft picks—one of which was used on a punter and one of which is a linebacker already out for the season with a torn Achilles.

Oh, wait. Turns out all of those things have already gone wrong for the four teams in the South. So the real question is, who will be able to minimize the damage the best?

The easiest call to make is that it will be a three-team race between Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans. A tougher call is whether the Panthers can not only make the playoffs for the second year and a row but defend their division title.

The Falcons, Panthers and Saints return the bulk of their teams and coaching staffs, for better or for worse, and all believe they should be better than Tampa Bay, which will go into the season with a new coaching staff desperately trying to overhaul an aging roster—not a good place to be in a division where no team finished under .500 last year.

All that success wasn't because of defense, however. No division in the NFL averaged as many points as the 25.5 teams in the South put up, and most of that offensive talent is back.

That in mind, it seems reasonable to conclude that whichever squad gets its defensive ducks in a row will be at an advantage. That won't be easy, though, since the South's offensive prowess was matched only by its defensive ineptitude.

While the Saints (28.9 ppg, first), Panthers (25.9, seventh), and Falcons (24.4, 10th) were all over the top of the league's offensive charts those numbers were undoubtedly aided by defenses that were all over the bottom.

New Orleans' season was derailed by a unit that ranked 26th in points per game (24.6), and though the Falcons (11th) and Panthers (12th) looked respectable in that category both were much shakier in yards per game. Atlanta allowed 348.2 yards an outing, actually worse than the Saints, and Carolina was 18th at 331.1.

Not surprisingly, the division focused heavily on defense in the draft. The Panthers' first three picks were all on that side of the ball.

The Saints had only four picks but used the first three on defenders (well, four if you count punter Thomas Morstead, but drafting a punter in the fifth round probably wasn't the answer), and nobody helped themselves more than the Falcons, who used their first five and seven of their eight selections in a quest to stop Carolina's potent rushing and New Orleans' explosive passing.

The Saints had the most holes to fill, so it's hard to see how three draft picks - down to two with Stanley Arnoux's injury—can do the job even with new a defensive coordinator and the remarkable Drew Brees under center.

The Panthers, also sporting a new coordinator, picked up a nice pass rusher with their limited draft options (nothing until late in the second round), and if end Everette Brown produces at all coupled with Peppers (assuming Julius can bring himself to bite the bullet and play 16 games for more than a million a game—poor baby), Carolina has improved itself enough to make a repeat trip to the playoffs.

Still, on paper it's hard to see how Atlanta isn't the team to beat. Many thought the Falcons were the South's best by the end of last season, and the've done nothing but add depth to go with a plethora of young talent led by the best young quarterback in the league, Matt Ryan.

Yep, it's settled: Atlanta wins the division. Based on recent history, that's great news—so long as you're not an Atlanta fan.