Fleur-De-Lis Fever | Five Questions Surrounding the New Orleans Saints

The NFL is full of optimism right now.  All of the records and rankings have been wiped clean.  Because of parity, many teams have a chance to compete for a Super Bowl title (right, Arizona?). 

The players, coaches, management, and fans of 31 NFL teams are ready to put 2008 behind them and get started on 2009.  I think the Pittsburgh Steelers' community, though, isn't in a rush to start the season.

The luck a champion receives during its championship run usually reverses itself the following season.  Just ask the 2009 New York Giants and the 2006 Steelers.

Here in the land of the fleur-de-lis and the black and gold nation, optimism is near record-high levels. 

In 2008, the Saints used their top-ranked offense to win eight games and come within just a small handful of points from winning several more games.  New Orleans lost six games by an average margin of just three points. 

To fix some of the defensive problems, New Orleans brought in well-respected defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Williams was so coveted by head coach Sean Payton that he put up $250,000 of his own salary to lure Williams here.

I have read and listened to many faithful Saints fans over the past few months express their excitement over the upcoming season.  Phrases like, "Super Bowl" and "best offense ever" and "top 10 defense" have been thrown around like Mardi Gras beads at Endymion to describe the possibilities of this year's Saints.

Despite two consecutive years without a playoff berth, many fans are penciling the Saints to receive the 32nd pick in the draft next year.

To borrow from Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friends."

I would describe myself as cautiously optimistic.  I am cautious because I've seen this movie before.  Let me just tell you that previews and hype surrounding it are much better than the movie itself.

1991 - Saints start 7-0.  Finish 11-5.  Saints lose their grip on their first ever bye week with a four game losing streak late in the season.  Lose wild card playoff game to Atlanta Falcons.

1993 - Saints start 5-0.  Finish 8-8.  No playoffs.

1997 - New Orleans hires Da Coach, Mike Ditka.  Three years and 15 wins later, time to start over again.

1997 (yes, again) - Heath Shuler.  Two touchdowns.  14 interceptions.

2001 - Saints finish 3rd in division with a 7-9 record one year after winning their first playoff game.

2002 - Saints start 9-4, including a sweep of eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay, but lose three straight to teams with losing records.  At 9-7, the Saints finish half a game behind Atlanta for the last playoff spot.

2007 - After making it further than any Saints team had gone before just a year earlier, Saints fail to build on success and fall to 7-9.

There are others, such as the 1987 strike-shortened season that saw the Saints win the last nine games of the regular season and finish a franchise best 12-3 only to get annihilated in their first ever playoff game. 

However, I was only four years old in 1987, so my optimism could only be shattered if someone told me that Santa wasn't real.  It wasn't until I was about eight that I got sucked into the vortex of sports hysteria.

The Saints have crushed my football-loving soul every year since about 1991,except for 2000 and 2006, by not winning a playoff game.  So, let's just say I'm not going to allow myself to get caught up in the tidal wave of optimism just yet. 

There are still some questions this Saints team needs to answer. 

1) Is Gregg Williams the Savior?

This is the best move, by far, the Saints have made this offseason.  The pass defense has been quite inept lately.  It's time for a change.

As a special teams coach and later as a linebackers coach for the Houston Oilers, Gregg Williams learned under the wing of defensive guru Buddy Ryan.  Ryan created the Bears' famous '46' defense and is largely credited with Chicago's Super Bowl victory.

Williams was a defensive coordinator at three places before arriving in New Orleans.  While in Tennessee (1997-2000), his defense was ranked number one in the NFL in 1999 and helped lead the charge to a Super Bowl match-up against the St. Louis Rams. 

After three years of turmoil as head coach of the Buffalo Bills, Williams landed a job as a defensive coordinator with the Washington Redskins.  There, he experienced many highs and lows. 

His defense was ranked in the top ten in 2004 and 2005 before dipping near the bottom of the league rankings in 2006. 

In 2007, star safety Sean Taylor, whom he called, "the best player [he'd] ever coached," was attacked and killed in the middle of the season.

He spent 2008 as Jacksonville's defensive coordinator. 2008 was a rough season for Williams.  His defense finished 21st in points allowed and 24th in passing yards allowed.

Now that he is in New Orleans, can he repeat the magic he brought to Tennessee and during his first two seasons in Washington?  Are the Saints talented enough to handle his attacking-style defense, or will their deficiencies be exposed again?

2) Can Will Smith and Charles Grant return to being their menacing selves?

If you have been following the Saints for just a few seasons, you would think that Smith and Grant are just untalented hacks eating at the Saints salary cap.

Well, they are eating at the salary cap, but they aren't untalentd.

Smith averaged over eight sacks per game in his first four seasons.  Then, he dipped to just three sacks last year.  To Smith's credit, he did play much of 2008 with a sports hernia and recorded 61 tackles, a high number for a defensive end.

After combining for 20.5 sacks in 2003 and 2004, Grant has not been much of a factor as pass rusher since.  He has just 13.5 sacks over the past four seasons.

3) Where is the production going to come from at outside linebacker?

Both Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita have been the starters at outside linebacker for the Saints for three seasons.  While each of them are considered serviceable, neither is a game changer.  Last season, they combined for just two sacks (both by Shanle) and two forced fumbles (one apiece).

A year ago, the Saints signed Dan Morgan.  He sat out 2008 because of complications from numerous concussions but has committed himself this season. 

The one-time pro-bowler has been productive when on the field but has never lasted a whole season.  The Saints will take whatever they can get from the seven-year veteran.

Jo-Lonn Dunbar, an undrafted rookie a season ago, is considered to be the top backup at the position and his potential is largely unknown.

4) Can the rebuilt secondary actually become the strength of the defense?

As you can see, I have a lot of questions about the defense.

The Saints secondary has been dreadful for two years.  In 2007, Jason David was the laughingstock of the NFL.  David is still around (at least for now), but there appears to be much better parts around him.

Out: A hobbled Mike McKenzie; In: Jabari Greer and Malcolm Jenkins.

Out: Josh Bullocks and Kevin Kaesviharn; In: Darren Sharper and Pierson Prioleau.

On paper, this is a much improved unit.  On paper, though, the Saints should have made the playoffs last year.

5) Is Sean Payton truly committed to running the ball?

For a brief stretch in November and December last year, Sean Payton had a moment of insanity: He actually ran the ball more than 40 percent of the time in four games.

Overall, the Saints ran the ball just 38 percent of the time.

Payton expressed interest in running backs Chris "Beanie" Wells and Knowshon Moreno in this past April's draft.  He even admitted to being tempted to trading back into the first round to pick up Wells.

With a quarterback like Drew Brees, I don't think the Saints should all of a sudden become power running team like the Steelers or Titans, but they need to establish the running game in order to keep the fierce pass rushers in the NFC South guessing as to which play the Saints are going to call. 

Also, it is unfair to all of a sudden expect your team to run out the clock at the end of the game when they've been passing for the first three quarters.

Bonus Question - Can last season's injured rookies make a significant impact this year?

Tracy Porter, DeMario Pressley, and Adrian Arrington were all rookies last year and only Porter saw the field. 

Porter, a second round pick who immediately started at cornerback, played in only five games before injuring his wrist.  He is expected to compete for a starting job this year along with Jabari Greer, Malcolm Jenkins, and Randall Gay.

Pressley, a defensive tackle, and Arrington, a wide receiver, are expected to make contributions as backups this year.  Pressley should see significant time as a part of the Saints tackle rotation, while Arrington could conceivably push Devery Henderson for the third receiver spot.

Despite the questions I have about the 2009 Saints, I still think they have a run at the division title in them. It seems that the favorites in the NFC South never win, and that spells bad news for Carolina and Atlanta.

I actually expect the Saints to make the playoffs. To make predictions beyond that, though, makes me feel uneasy.