UNC vs. South Carolina Football: How Tar Heels Can Upset Gamecocks

The 2013 college football season kicks off in style Thursday night, spearheaded by a marquee game between North Carolina and No. 6 South Carolina (6:00 p.m., ESPN) in Columbia.

The Gamecocks—regarded as legitimate national title contenders—are listed as 12.5-point favorites at the LVH Casino, and it's not hard to see why. They've crushed teams at home since Connor Shaw took over at starting quarterback, including a 21-point win over Clemson in 2011 and 28-point win over Georgia (its only loss of the regular season) in 2012.

That track record is amplified by the presence of Jadeveon Clowney, who earned plaudits for his outstanding play last season and fame for his most outstanding hit. He's been pegged as a once-per-generation talent, capable of carrying USC through the Southeastern Conference, winning the Heisman, getting drafted No. 1 overall, flipping a sled upside down and still getting home in time to haunt your dreams that night. 

With all that working against them, it's easy to understand why the Tar Heels are such heavy underdogs in Week 1. But there's a reason they received votes in both preseason polls, and if they do a few specific things on Thursday, they just might stand an actual chance of winning

Shut Down the Defensive Line

Read that carefully, and twice if you really have to. Shut down the defensive line. The whole defensive line. Not just one defensive lineman.

Clowney gets (and earns) all the press, but USC's defense attacks from all angles. He should always be, and always is, by a wide margin, priority No. 1—but he can't be a defense's sole focus.

Fellow linemen like Kelcy Quarles and Chaz Sutton are not in Clowney's league, but no one in college football is. If they were on any other team, defensive coordinators would have to game-plan around them. Leaving them unattended is a terrible mistake, but if an offense can (somehow) shut the whole unit down, it stands a good chance of success.

South Carolina's worst—and only bad—three-game stretch last year came in October, when back-to-back losses to LSU and Florida were followed by a three-point home win over Tennessee. Here's how the Gamecocks defense fared in that triad, specifically with regard to sacks:

Lorenzo Ward's defense relies on negative plays, on getting into the backfield four times per game and throwing a wrench in the offense's drive. When it went on a dry spell in October, USC's three opponents all exploited it—and the only one who lost came awfully close to pulling an upset in Columbia.

North Carolina must follow a similar template, one where everything starts with protection. That won't just give Bryn Renner time to look downfield and find open targets, it will also keep the offense from drive-crippling negative gains.

First-team All-ACC (and future NFL first-round) tackle James Hurst draws the short straw and has to block Clowney, but he's as up to the task as just about any college lineman. Clowney will always have the advantage, but this is one of the smallest talent gaps he'll enjoy all season.

The problems might actually be bigger elsewhere. UNC has to replace top-10 pick Jonathan Cooper at left guard, which could be a problem against underrated interior rusher Quarles. It also lost two other NFL draft picks from last year's squad, right tackle Brennan Williams and guard/tackle Travis Bond.

Those losses will be hard to account for, but the Tar Heels always field a good offensive line and have enough returning talent to bridge the gap. By season's end, it should once again be one of the best units in the ACC.

The question is whether they can play that way in Week 1.

Get Stops on Third Down

South Carolina's offense was pretty good last season, averaging 31.5 points per game and finishing top-30 in Football Outsiders' F/+ Rankings. The Gamecocks return seven starters on that side of the ball, including two very capable quarterbacks, and should be even better (though just slightly) than they were in 2012.

But one litmus test for their offense last year was third-down efficiency. USC was above-average on the whole, finishing 46th in the nation with a 42.6 percent conversion rate. But the only teams that held it under 22 points—Vanderbilt, LSU and Florida—all stifled it on third down:

In news that should shock no one, the Gamecocks' three lowest-scoring games were also their three worst on third down. Every team scores less when it struggles to move the sticks, but South Carolina's discrepancy was massive.

And UNC needs to exploit it.

The numbers suggest that South Carolina, if it's able to perform even decently on third down, will rack up somewhere 27 and 40 points. Steve Spurrier's team has a history of sloppiness in Week 1, but given the magnitude of this game, UNC can't bank on that. The Tar Heels have to assume that the Gamecocks will be sharp.

North Carolina isn't, in all likelihood, going to score 30-plus points in this game—no matter how good and explosive its offense looks on paper. USC will not let an ACC foe walk into Williams-Brice Stadium and hang a big, crooked number. Just ask Clemson how hard it is to score in this venue.

The Tar Heels' only chance is to keep the game lower-scoring, pick and choose their spots to attack but keep USC off the scoreboard. And their only chance of doing that lies with getting the Gamecock offense off the field. 

Huge Game From Bryn Renner

In basketball, there's a gambling adage about—when in doubt—picking the team with the best player. It doesn't work 100 percent of the time, but if you're struggling to find a favorite, take the one guy you're most confident can carry his team.

The same might be said of quarterbacks, football's greatest and profoundest equalizer. No other sport has a position so vital to success, so the team with the better quarterback should always (theoretically) have a shot at turning heads.

Connor Shaw is great in his own right, but on Thursday night in Columbia, UNC will have the better quarterback—at least when he's on his game.

Renner was up and down last season but finished the year on an impressive three-game stretch. In games vs. Georgia Tech, at Virginia and vs. Maryland, he finished 81-of-110 with 970 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception. 

If he can carry that momentum into Columbia, Renner might be able to move his ACC offense against a stout SEC defense. When he was in that zone, he was efficient not just with his arm but with his mind. He was locked in, didn't force plays that weren't there and almost exclusively made smart decisions.

South Carolina's defense is predicated on fear and, as explained earlier, negative plays. The rabbit formation—where four defensive ends grace the line of scrimmage—is there to intimidate a quarterback, to make him fear for his life and force an errant throw because of that preoccupation.

But the 'Cocks also lost some key defensive pieces from last season, including All-SEC safety D.J. Swearinger and their three best linebackers. Renner, meanwhile, has an NFL-caliber tight end in Eric Ebron and a potential star receiver in Quinshad Davis. The weapons are there for him to exploit a rebuilding group of coverage guys.

Renner is a senior and, in his mind, one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Some NFL draftniks—respected voices like NFL.com's Mike Mayock—have gone on the record and agreed.

If he plays like it on Thursday, anything is possible.

You can follow Brian Leigh on Twitter @BLeighDAT or B/R College Football @BR_CFB.