AFC East: Patriots Team To Beat

Don’t be surprised if the American Football Conference East is the AFC’s most competitive division in 2009.

Last year, the AFC East was the only division in the conference in which all four teams won at least seven games. And just four games separated the champion Dolphins from the last place Bills.

The AFC East this year loses a legendary quarterback (Brett Favre), but welcomes back another in Tom Brady.

The Patriots’ future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick once again faces the challenge of keeping his team in the Super Bowl hunt after losing key personnel from his coaching staff (Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels) and front office (Chiefs GM Scott Pioli).

The Jets welcome new coach Rex Ryan (son of coaching great Buddy Ryan), who seems to determined to remake his defense in the image of the brass-knuckled Baltimore Ravens, for whom he served as defensive coordinator.

And the Bills hope to spice up their offense with the addition of wide receiver Terrell Owens. But T.O. brings plenty of baggage to Buffalo, along with an entourage and camera crew for his new VH-1 reality show.

Get your popcorn ready. The AFC East figures to be quite entertaining.

Here’s a closer look at each team in the predicted order of finish.

New England Patriots

Considering that the Pats won 11 games in 2008 without their franchise quarterback, including their final four, a healthy Brady makes Coach Belichick’s crew the team to beat. The Pats wouldn’t have traded Matt Cassel to the Chiefs if they had any concern about Brady’s knee.  

Brady will have an abundance of weapons, including All-Pro wideouts Randy Moss and Wes Welker, running backs Kevin Faulk, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris and tight end Ben Watson. The offensive line is solid, and rookie WR Brandon Tate could be a sleeper.

But the Pats could be vulnerable on defense because of aging linebackers and a suspect secondary.

Linebacker Tyrone McKenzie, a 2009 third-round pick, is out for the season with a torn ligament in his right knee). The Pats hope rookie LB Antonio Appleby will contribute immediately.

Veterans Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden are new to the secondary. But even if they don’t make Patriots fans forget about Asante Samuel, the Brady-run offense should make up for the defense’s shortcomings.

New York Jets

Quarterback Mark Sanchez is the key player in the Jets’ extreme makeover. How quickly he picks up the offense and displays the accuracy and leadership skills shown at USC will determine how high the Jets fly.

Remember, the Jets looked like the class of the AFC at 8-3 last season after consecutive wins at New England and Tennessee. But Father Time sacked Favre, who was outplayed in late-season games by the 49ers’ Shaun Hill and the Seahawks’ Seneca Wallace.

The Jets’ 1-4 finish turned Eric Mangini, their coaching “Man-genius,” into Man-overboard and led to the hiring of Ryan. Ryan recruited three former Ravens defenders, including brash linebacker Bart Scott, and he hopes to sure up a pass defense that ranked dead last in the AFC in 2008 offering 206 yards/game.

Although the Jets are thin at wide receiver, they’ll be fine at running back if they can reach agreements with Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. A ball-control offense led by a precocious QB and an improved pass rush should be enough to keep the Jets in contention.

Miami Dolphins

Teams kept waiting for the Dolphins to fall to earth last year. But savvy QB Chad Pennington stayed healthy all season, and the Fins didn’t get hooked until they had raised a banner that read AFC East Champions.

Opportunistic, quick and athletic, the defense led by linebackers Joey Porter (17.5 sacks) and Channing Crowder (113 tackles) and cornerback Yeremiah Bell swarms to the ball and forces turnovers. And former All-Pro Jason Taylor might return to Miami to bolster the pass rush.

Top tuna Bill Parcells and head coach Tony Sparano have built a team that protects the football (fewest turnovers in the AFC in ’08) and keeps opponents off balance. After a devastating 38-13 win at New England in Week 3, Miami’s Wildcat offense became the NFL’s flavor of the year.

But the Fins won’t sneak up on foes this time. Baltimore twice de-clawed the Wildcat in ’08, and those game films had to be studied closely around the league. For Miami to excel, rookie Pat White will have to give the Wildcat a pass/run wrinkle, and 6-5 WR Patrick Turner will need to succeed where other lanky USC wideouts (Dwayne Jarrett, Mike Williams) have failed.

Buffalo Bills

Because of last season’s 4-0 start and 1-4 finish, Coach Dick Jauron enters 2009 on the hot seat.

He needs marked improvement from QB Trent Edwards, a trouble-free season from RB Marshawn Lynch and a replacement for departed All-Pro left tackle Jason Peters.

So why did the Bills use five of their eight draft picks for defense? Well, the Bills ranked 22nd in the NFL in pass defense (190 yards/game)—another major cause for concern.

In a move prompted by Buffalo’s distressed economy, the Bills will again play a late-season home game in Toronto’s domed Rogers Centre. The switch backfired last year when the Dolphins avoided frigid, swirling winds and beat the Bills indoors. The Jets could benefit on Dec. 3 this season.

The Bills will be more newsworthy with the addition of T.O. But as we saw in Dallas, headlines alone don’t signal success. Owens can antagonize coaches and alienate teammates, and if enough balls aren’t thrown his way, T.O. could have the same locker-room effect as an outbreak of TB.

AFC East—Predicted order of finish 

Patriots         12-4

Jets              10-6

Dolphins          9-7

Bills               6-10