What Is Reasonable For Lions Fans To Expect Out Of Kevin Smith?

Detroit Lions running back Kevin Smith was one of few, or rather the only, bright spot in what was an unforgettable season for all the wrong reasons.

As a rookie, Smith rushed for 976 yards on 238 carries (a 4.1 average) and eight touchdowns.

Those certainly aren't Pro Bowl numbers, but it's very good production, especially if the Lions can find a second running back that can split time with him.

But how much should we expect Smith to improve?

Looking at the numbers some recent running backs have put up in their rookie and second seasons says Smith should improve, but he most likely won't jump to elite-level status among running backs.

I judged comparable stats with guys who had more than 170 carries as a rookie, but fewer than 300; since I doubt Smith will ever go too far over the 300 carry per-year mark. I also threw out guys whose per-carry average as a rookie was more than five, since that seems a little lofty for Smith as well.

Eliminating those guys gave us a group of 12 for the comparison: Marshawn Lynch, Dominic Rhodes, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Laurence Maroney, Joseph Addai, Willis McGahee, Michael Bennett, Cadillac Williams, Warrick Dunn, Kevin Jones, and Julius Jones.

Rhodes was eliminated, since he was injured most of his second season, causing his production to fall off dramatically, leaving our group at 11.

Biggest improvement: Bennett went from 682 yards and a 4.0 per-carry average as a rookie to 1,296 yards and a 5.1 per-carry average as a second-year player. He also scored three more touchdowns than in his rookie season.

Biggest dropoff: It's a familiar name to Lions fans, especially those who recently received a re-purposed Kevin Smith jersey. Kevin Jones showed great promise as a rookie, rushing for 1,133 yards and a 4.7 per-carry average. In his second season, although he did have about 50 fewer carries due to injury, his production fell to 664 yards and a 3.6 per-carry average.

As a group, the backs had 129 more carries their second year, rushed for 297 more yards, 1.2 more yards per carry and 1 fewer touchdown.

Based on the averages, Smith should put up virtually the same numbers next season barring injuries.