Four Reasons Dallas Cowboys Fans Should Set Realistic Expectations for 2009

Peel off the “Super Bowl or Bust” bumper sticker and take off your blue-tinted Cowboys star sunglasses. All that talk about Super Bowls and being the most talented team in the NFL is so 2008. 

Instead of feasting on the press clippings of a paper tiger, let’s enjoy a healthy dose of realistic expectations for the Dallas Cowboys' 2009 season. We’re here to set the table.

New Digs

The first thing to consider when discussing the Cowboys in 2009 is the new Texas Stadium. Sure, everything is bigger in Texas, but there’s a reason the locals refer to the new facility as “Jerry World.” If you are anywhere within a 10-mile radius, you will see the 80,000-seat monstrosity the Cowboys will call home next season.

The acoustics are untested, but the place will be packed, so look for Dallas to enjoy a distinct home field advantage next year. Or not.

Owner Jerry Jones opted to keep the trademark hole in the roof, which does force the players to compete in the natural elements. But it also lets the sound of the crowd escape through the hole.  Recent word from the Cowboys suggests the roof will be closed if there is rain or snow in the area.

With 420,000 square feet of entertainment space stretching over 10 acres, plus 200 suites and 1,500 club seats, who’s to say the fans that actually sit in the seats will make enough noise to disrupt the opposing team’s offense?

The Cowboys have won six games at home in each of the last two years. However, Dallas has dropped its final home game four years in a row. The Cowboys will need to protect their home turf at the new digs at Texas Stadium.

Addition By Subtraction? Not When Calculating These Numbers

Locals are touting the expression, "Addition by subtraction," after the Cowboys cut starting wide reciever Terrell Owens this off season.  But no matter how petulant or divisive Owens has proven to be to the Cowboys, you can’t argue with his production. 

In the last three years, Owens missed only one game, had three consecutive 1,000+ yard receiving seasons, and averaged 12.6 touchdowns per season. Owens' Cowboy career stats are 235 catches for 3,587 yards and 38 touchdowns.

Only Hall of Famer Michael Irvin did it better over a three-year span, from 1993-95, catching 278 passes for 4,174 yards and 23 TDs.

With the release of Owens, the primary wide receiving duties now fall to Roy Williams, who the Cowboys acquired in a trade from Detroit. In seven starts last season for the Cowboys, Williams caught only 19 passes for 198 yards and one touchdown.

When pressed about whether he felt any added pressure for being the new go-to guy in Dallas, Williams told The Dallas Morning News, “This isn’t my first rodeo. I’ve been the number one guy before.”

No matter how you manipulate the numbers or how fuzzy the math, the Cowboys are worse in the receiver category compared with last year. In six seasons as a professional, Williams has only stayed healthy for the entire season once. That was in 2006, which is also the only season he surpassed the 1,000-yard receiving mark.

The Cowboys are one injury away from a starting receiving corps of Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton, and Sam Hurd. Even if you add Williams back to this triumvirate, Owens had more receiving yards (1,052) than these four receivers combined (1,026) last season.

If the Cowboys expect to make the postseason in 2009, the receiving corps must stay healthy and improve its individual production.

NFC Beast

If you haven’t already started to temper your enthusiasm for the Cowboys in 2009, you should know only three teams in the NFL finished in the top 10 in both offense and defense last season, and two of those teams play in the NFC East. Division rivals New York and Philadelphia, who were already balanced and effective last year, got bigger and faster this offseason. 

Philly added size by acquiring Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters from Buffalo, and they drafted speed in Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin in the first round of this year’s draft. Adding Maclin to the receiving corps that includes DeSean Jackson gives the Cowboys immediate matchup problems.

In two career games against Dallas, Jackson has eight catches for 156 yards.

With veteran cornerback Anthony Henry traded for back up quarterback Jon Kitna, the young Cowboy corners could find it difficult to cover the Eagles' speed on the perimeter.

The Giants won a Super Bowl two years ago because of their ability to pressure the quarterback with their front four and stop the run with the front seven. Last year the Giants cruised to a 12-4 regular season record despite playing without their best pass rusher, Osi Umenyiora, who was out with an injury. 

This offseason, the Giants acquired Cowboys starting defensive tackle Chris Canty in free agency, as well as defensive tackle Rocky Bernard, who has averaged 4.1 sacks in his seven-year professional career. The Giants are big and proven up front defensively and will be a force to deal with if they stay healthy all season.

Just Win a Playoff Game, Baby

The last time the Dallas Cowboys won a playoff game, the calendar year was 1996. There have been plenty of Cowboy team rosters capable of stopping this decade-plus trend of futility, yet no team could get it done. On paper, the Boys appear to be worse in some key positions, while division rivals are clearly better. 

If the Cowboys can win at home, split with teams in their division, and steal a few games on the road, a wild card playoff berth is certainly realistic. But as for any Super Bowl talk, let’s first win one playoff game this decade.

If you feel a touch nauseous after digesting this information regarding the Cowboys' chances for next season, then head on out to Jerry World for some comfort food.

I hear the corn dogs and fried ice cream are going to be terrific, even if the Cowboys' season won’t be.