Kevin Smith's 2009 Lions Predictions: Good, but Wrong

It seems that unrealistic season predictions have become a tradition in Detroit.

In 2007 and 2008, quarterback Jon Kitna predicted 10 wins for the Detroit Lions. In 2009, Kitna is in Dallas, and running back Kevin Smith has predicted, or rather guaranteed, playoffs for the Lions on his blog.

Of course, Kitna's predictions fell flat as the Lions failed to win 10 games in 2007 and 2008 combined.

Smith has done no better. As a rookie, he predicted 20 touchdowns for himself (he ended the season with eight) and a playoff win for the Lions in 2008, so there is little reason to believe his prediction this year.

There is also little reason for Lions fans not to channel Jim Mora in their response to said prediction.

Don't mistake me, Smith's predictions are necessary for the team. On the player level, a team's season goal cannot be "rebuilding," or "just winning a game." Playoffs are something tangible to shoot for, a concrete goal.

An unrealistic, almost laughable goal for a team that hasn't won a single game since 2007, but a goal, nonetheless.

What, then, is a realistic goal for the 2009 Lions?

Coming off an unprecedented 0-16 season, and with major changes in management, coaching, and roster, a prediction is tough to make with so many unknowns.

Taking into account some wiggle room for surprise and disappointment, the Lions can likely hope to squeak five wins out of the coming season.

Why the Lions Could Surprise

The Lions are certainly improved this season, in every area aside from ownership, but improving on rock bottom is hardly a major achievement.

The historically bad defense, responsible for spotting opponents several 21-point leads early on, will sport at least six new starters in 2009.

When head coach Jim Schwartz took the Lions' reigns, one of his first orders of business was to re-work the cornerback situation, signing Eric King and Philip Buchanon, trading Kitna for Anthony Henry, and cutting almost the entirety of the maligned corps in the process.

Defensive end Cliff Avril cracked the starting lineup late in 2008, and should make a significant difference in Lions' pass rush in 2009. He did not see significant playing time until the latter half of the season, but still led all rookies in sacks despite playing on one of the worst pass-rushing teams in the league.

On the offensive end, the majority of the buzz surrounds first-round picks Matthew Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew.

Stafford will likely struggle to find time on the field, either because Daunte Culpepper plays well or because the coaching staff is determined to keep him from suffering an early concussion while playing behind a below-average offensive line.

Pettigrew on the other hand, should make immediate impact. He is a complete tight end, and previous starting tight end Michael Gaines carried so little value to the Lions, he was released before Pettigrew so much as took the practice field.

Lost in the shuffle of the big draft names are some of the underrated signings of the offseason.

The wide receiver corps is completely overhauled behind budding superstar Calvin Johnson, with Bryant Johnson, Ronald Curry, and Derrick Williams likely filling out positions two through four.

Maurice Morris and Terrelle Smith  have come in to provide depth to a strongly developing backfield.

Through some excellent free agency moves, the linebacker corps has a completely new look as well, with Super Bowl champ Larry Foote likely minding the middle, and Pro Bowler Julian Peterson on the strong side.

If the free agent class overachieves, the Lions could surprise some people.

Most of the players signed this offseason are young guys who have shown flashes of greatness, but no consistency. If they can take their new, expanded roles in Detroit and run with them, the Lions might approach an 8-8 record.

Why the Lions Could Disappoint

It seems almost ironic now to suggest that the Lions could disappoint fans. They can't notch a negative number of wins, and until the league expands the regular season to 18 games, the Lions have set the gold standard for futility.

Still, the Lions have made some changes, and every fan is looking for a significant improvement for this season.

Standing in the way of that kind of season is offensive and defensive line play. With all the improvements made to both sides of the Lions' defense, the lines remain question marks and have been a major reason for the Lions' problems over the past two seasons.

They may continue to be in 2009.

A weak defensive middle (lazy when Shaun Rogers played in 2007, undersized after he was traded to the Browns) getting no push allowed running backs to get to the second level on almost every play. A weak rush off the edge meant quarterbacks could pick the secondary apart.

Fourth-round draft pick Sammie Lee Hill has size and strength, but needs a great deal of polish before he is ready to contribute consistently. That means Grady Jackson and Chuck Darby will fill the middle, with some combination of Cliff Avril, Jared DeVries and DeWayne White on the ends.

On offense, the Lions have allowed 106 sacks over the past two seasons, second in that span only to the San Francisco 49ers (110). Aside from a few late free agent signings and seventh-round draft pick Lydon Murtha, the offensive line has seen no changes.

Pettigrew will serve as a good release valve when the pressure gets too high, and will help in blocking, as well. Culpepper with training camp under his belt will be better equipped to handle that pressure than anyone the Lions trotted out under center last season.

But there is still going to be pressure, and lots of it. Every defensive coordinator in the NFL knows that Lions quarterbacks are vulnerable to lots of sacks. Any success the Lions see this season will be dashed if opponents continue to dominate them in the trenches, even with all the improvements in other areas.

There is some truth in what Smith says on his blog. The Lions really were not as bad last year as 0-16 suggests. But playoffs are at least a year away, and Smith is not rushing for 20 touchdowns anytime soon.

The 2009 season will be one of minor improvements, with an overall goal of instilling a winning attitude long missing from Detroit. No amount of football genius can transform an 0-16 team to a playoff team in a few short months.

The Lions are on the right track to return to respectability, but the road is too long to be travelled in a single season.