In the Topsy-Turvy NFC South, Expect the Unexpected

If you can count on one sure thing in the NFC South every season, it’s that you never can really count on anything.

Sure, you can do can do all the research on players, X’s and O’s, draft needs, front office moves, and coaching changes, but all that analysis wouldn’t have led anyone of sound mind to predict that the Atlanta Falcons would have finished last season with an 11-5 record and a playoff berth.

That same logic could hold true for the 12-4 finish by the Carolina Panthers, or the fact that Tampa Bay started the year 9-3 before losing its final four games and missing the playoffs.

And since everyone anointed New Orleans as the team to beat in 2008 after reaching the NFC Championship game the year before, it just seems appropriate that the Saints finished 8-8 despite having the league’s most potent offense.

But if you study the history of the NFC South, you’d find that the trend in the division is to come to expect those types of finishes.

Since the NFL re-shaped its divisions for the 2002 season, the team that finished in last place in the division the previous season has gone on to sit atop the division the following season.

There has been but one exception, that being last year with Atlanta, but it was closer than you might think to happening. A John Kasay field goal for Carolina in the final game of the regular season cemented the Panthers' grip on first place, relegating the Falcons to the Wild Card.

Case in point: Carolina (last in 2002, first in 2003), Atlanta (last in 2003, first in 2004), Tampa Bay (last in 2004, first in 2005), New Orleans (last in 2005, first in 2006), and Tampa Bay again (last in 2006, first in 2007).

So is this good news for New Orleans in 2009?

Well, the problem with the Saints isn’t on offense. Drew Brees almost eclipsed the all-time NFL record for passing yards in a season last year, finishing with 5,069 yards and 34 touchdowns.

He’s got the weapons in Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, but the Saints need some kind of lift from their running backs (hello, Reggie Bush) and Pierre Thomas, who ran for just 625 yards last year.

Granted, coach Sean Payton abandoned the running game late in the season, but the Saints need more offensive balance.

The defense, which allowed 24.6 points a game last, brought in a new coordinator in Gregg Williams, who should infuse some toughness. Drafting Malcolm Jenkins should give the Saints some help in the secondary, but Jonathan Vilma must step up and start to make more plays.

You never can count the Saints out late in games with Brees under center, and tradition dictates that this could be their year to return to the playoffs. Let’s see if it holds up.

In Atlanta, the big question with the Falcons will be whether or not Matt Ryan can avoid a sophomore slump.

Ryan surprised everyone last year with his polish and poise, leading the Falcons to 11 wins and throwing completions with a 61 percent accuracy clip. Rookie quarterbacks aren’t supposed to do that in this league.

But it wasn’t just Ryan. The Falcons had the league’s second best rushing attack following the offseason acquisition of Michael Turner, and the defense, led by John Abraham and Keith Brooking, was a little better than average in surrendering 20.3 points a game, 11th best in the league.

Coach Mike Smith decided in the offseason that he needed more speed with his defensive unit, and five of the 11 starters from last year signed elsewhere in free agency, including Brooking, Lawyer Milloy, and Grady Jackson.

The Falcons spent their first four draft picks on defense and expect immediate contributions from defensive tackle Peria Jerry as well as safety William Moore.

The biggest acquisition for the Falcons, however, undoubtedly is tight end Tony Gonzalez. Gonzalez, one of the best to ever play the position, gives Ryan another weapon on offense that should help stretch the field and open up running lanes for Turner.

Atlanta will be an interesting team to watch this season.

Conversely, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are starting over. They have a new coach in Raheem Morris, who went from secondary coach to defensive coordinator to head coach in a span of two weeks.

Former coach Jon Gruden and general manager Bruce Allen are out, as are team stalwarts Derrick Brooks, Cato June, Warrick Dunn, Joey Galloway, and Jovan Hoye.

Longtime defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin also left to join the staff of his son Lane at the University of Tennessee

Morris apparently does have the same affinity for quarterbacks as his predecessor, with four currently on the roster and the team spending its first round pick on Josh Freeman, who Morris built a relationship with while he was the defensive coordinator at Kansas State.

The Bucs brought in Byron Leftwich to compete for the starting quarterback job and hope that the addition of running back Derrick Ward can provide the yang to Earnest Graham’s yin for Tampa to have any chance.

A 12-4 season for the Carolina Panthers last year wasn’t totally a shock. The team was just a few years removed from a Super Bowl appearance and still had some of its vital pieces.

With a productive draft that netted them running back Jonathan Stewart and right tackle Jeff Otah, the Panthers got off to a great start behind their power running game and solid defense.

The bitter taste left in the mouth for the Panthers, however, was a humiliating home playoff loss to the Arizona Cardinals, 33-13, that saw beleaguered quarterback Jake Delhomme throw five interceptions and lose a fumble.

Flash forward to 2009, and the Panthers will be looking to put that behind them. Twenty-one of 22 starters return, and a new quarterback coach for Delhomme (Rip Scherer), as well as a new defensive coordinator (Ron Meeks), should help generate a renewed sense of optimism.

On offense, DeAngelo Williams emerged from the shadow of DeShaun Foster in 2008 to rush for 1,515 yards and 18 touchdowns. Steve Smith caught 78 passes for 1,421 yards and six touchdowns despite missing the first two games of the season.

Meeks, who spent the last seven seasons with Indianapolis, will have a talented nucleus of players to build the defense around.

Jon Beason (138 tackles, three interceptions) and Thomas Davis (113 tackles, 3.5 sacks) were valuable members of a solid linebacker unit.

A disgruntled Julius Peppers has indicated his desire to play elsewhere and has yet to sign his franchise tender, but the team is hopeful he will be in uniform once training camp rolls around in July.

The Panthers, who fell apart on defense during the final seven games last season by giving up 45, 31, 23, 10, 34, 31, and 33 points respectively, certainly would miss Peppers and his 14.5 sacks from a season ago.

Someone’s got to win the division. It looks like a three-way race, but if we’ve learned anything since 2002, watch out for New Orleans.