Miami Dolphins 2009 Season Outlook: A Big Step Back

Chad Pennington may be pointing forward, but the Miami Dolphins will almost surely be taking a step back this season.

In 2008, the Fins were the darlings of the NFL. Everyone knows their story by now: They went from 1-15 in 2007 to a startling 11-5 mark, winning the AFC East and earning a playoff berth in 2008.

Can the Dolphins continue that trend in 2009, improving to 12 or more wins and getting a second straight trip to the NFL postseason? Not likely. An eight-win season is all that should be expected from the Dolphins this year.

Realistically, Miami got incredibly lucky in 2008. Their schedule was 10th weakest in the league based on teams' 2007 records. They played just six games against teams who had a .500 record or more in 2007, and they played four games against 2007 playoff teams (New England twice, San Diego and Seattle).

The Dolphins' schedule also favored them because they got to face the AFC and NFC West, by far the two weakest divisions in football. The NFC West had an abysmal .344 winning percentage in 2008, and the AFC West wasn't too far behind, tallying .360 in the same category.

Even with those pitiful marks, Miami still nearly lost to St. Louis (16-12 final score), San Francisco (14-9), Oakland (17-15), Seattle (21-19) and Kansas City (38-31). There were way more close calls than there should have been for a division-winner like the Dolphins were.

And let's face it, the win against New England in Week 3 can be attributed to Matt Cassel starting just his second career game in the NFL and no one having seen the Wildcat formation yet.

By Week 12 when the teams met again, Cassell was playing well, the Patriots had adjusted to the Wildcat and New England torched Miami for 48 points. The Dolphins' Week 17 win against the Jets was also given to them thanks to the Brett Favre's decaying arm.

Now take a look to 2009. Their strength of schedule? Yikes.

Miami was not treated kindly by the schedule makers, and they have, yes, the toughest schedule in the league based on 2008 records.

In order to exceed my expectations for this team, well, they'll have to hang tough against every playoff team in the AFC last year except Baltimore and then go to the NFC and tussle with the No. 2 and No. 5 seeds from the 2008 playoffs.

Did I say "yikes" already?

The AFC East may be the toughest division in football, and with Tom Brady back, the Patriots should re-emerge as a playoff team.

The Jets, with Brett Favre off their backs and a potential (though completely unproven) franchise quarterback in Mark Sanchez, will compete for the division as well.

And with Terrell Owens heading to the cold of Buffalo, anything could come out of western New York.

The schedule is by far the biggest thing to make Miami fall short next season, but if there's anything that can help them stay on top, it's the mind of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano.

The Wildcat formation was new and exciting last season, but by the end of the year, teams had adjusted and were shutting the formation down. In the one playoff game the Dolphins saw, Baltimore completely shut the Wildcat down, allowing just 7 yards on two plays attempted from the formation.

But innovation is the name of the game, and Parcells and Sparano will surely be adding new wrinkles to everyone's favorite high school formation. If he and the Dolphins can mess with teams' heads again, they might be on track to exceed my expectations.

But I'm not betting on it. There will be no playoffs for Miami in 2009.