Updating 2013 World Series Odds Post-MLB Trade Deadline

This year's non-waiver trade deadline is fully in the rearview mirror, and now it's time to look three months into the future at how the market activity, or lack thereof, of each team has impacted its chances of winning the World Series.

Does the acquisition of Jake Peavy propel the Red Sox back to the top? (And does the trade mean we can finally stop seeing the same six pictures of him used over and over again across the Internet?)

Should the Dodgers have done more at the deadline than sign Brian Wilson?

Did the Braves do enough to become the favorites in the National League?

What exactly were the Tigers thinking?

We'll try to answer all of those questions and more.

*Listed odds for All-Star break and Tuesday morning are courtesy of Bovada.lv. Current odds are my interpretation based on recent transactions. Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are courtesy of Fangraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com

New York Yankees

Odds at All-Star Break: 28-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 4-7

Overall Record: 55-51

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 33-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Alfonso Soriano from Cubs

Current Odds: 30-1

I never thought I'd live to see the day when the Yankees didn't spend enough money, but it happened at this year's trade deadline.

Considering how much of the salary Chicago was willing to eat, getting Alfonso Soriano was a great move, but it only addressed one of the many holes causing the ship to take on water.

Vernon Wells hasn't homered since May 15, and has a WAR for the season of minus-0.1 despite being worth a full win in April. Travis Hafner's decline since April has been even more precipitous. And third base is a continual disaster for the Yankees both on and off the field.

Yet, they're only a couple of games behind Baltimore for the second wild card, so there's still a chance.

(If they hadn't gotten out to such a hot start in April, it would've been interesting to watch the rumors fly in about Robinson Cano playing out his contract year for a sub-.500 team with half its payroll on the disabled list. I assume they would've been five times as fast and furious as the Chase Utley rumors, given the difference in age and market.)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Odds at All-Star Break: 20-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 4-7

Overall Record: 54-52

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 28-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Joe Thatcher, Matt Stites and a pick from Padres

Current Odds: 28-1

Since June 1, the Diamondbacks are five games below .500, which might have been more acceptable if the Dodgers weren't 17 games over .500 during the same stretch.

Thanks to that 11-game swing, they're 3.5 games behind L.A. in the West, and even further behind the Reds for the second wild card. The one thing working in their favor is that no one is particularly close behind them in either race, so they would seem to be the most likely benefactor if either Cincinnati or Los Angeles slips.

Even if they get a little help from a fading foe, it's still a long two months to be led by pitchers like Patrick Corbin, Randall Delgado and Wade Miley, who weren't even in the major leagues two calendar years ago.

Unless Brandon McCarthy gets healthy and effective in a hurry, it's getting difficult to see Arizona even making the playoffs, let alone winning it all. It would've been nice if the "Jake Peavy to Arizona" rumors from Tuesday evening actually came to fruition.

Cleveland Indians

Odds at All-Star Break: 25-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 7-4

Overall Record: 58-48

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 28-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Marc Rzepczynski from Cardinals

Current Odds: 25-1

It's a little hard to believe the Indians didn't do anything other than add a struggling left-handed reliever at the trade deadline.

The lowly Houston Astros are the only American League pitching staff with a lower WAR than the Indians. The entire starting rotation of the Tigers ranks in the top 20 among American League starters, but only Justin Masterson fits that description for the Indians. Corey Kluber checks in at No. 26, with neither Scott Kazmir nor Ubaldo Jimenez appearing in the top 30.

Meanwhile in the bullpen, only Cody Allen and Brian Shaw have a WAR of 0.2 or better, which means the Indians only have two of the 77 most valuable relievers in the American League.

Scoring nearly five runs per game is great. But it would go a lot further if opponents weren't doing the same.

Should the Indians manage to make the playoffs, it doesn't seem likely that the pitching staff would help them advance past the play-in game.

Baltimore Orioles

Odds at All-Star Break: 18-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 6-5

Overall Record: 59-48

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 18-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Francisco Rodriguez from Brewers; acquired Bud Norris from Astros

Current Odds: 18-1

If the Orioles want to get back to the playoffs in 2013, they better win at least nine of their next 10 games against the Astros, Mariners, Padres and Giants, because the schedule starts getting pretty daunting in a hurry.

Twenty-nine of their final 39 games come against teams who entered play on Tuesday at least five games over .500—and the six games against the Blue Jays aren't exactly days off, either.

Forced to deal with that murderers' row, the Orioles upgraded their starting rotation by grabbing Bud Norris with about 25 minutes left before the trade deadline. Though Norris was one of the most talked about trade commodities throughout the course of the season, he profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation type of starter. He's good, but he's no savior.

Getting Francisco Rodriguez to strengthen the bullpen was also an admirable move, but it's hardly the type of acquisition that pushes them into the upper echelon of the American League. They might be the fifth-best team, but there's a pretty big gap between "might make the playoffs" and "World Series contender."

Having traded top prospects Nick Delmonico and L.J. Hoes to make the upgrades to the 2013 roster, they better hope they make the playoffs.

Texas Rangers

Odds at All-Star Break: 12-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 4-8

Overall Record: 58-49

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 14-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Matt Garza from Cubs

Current Odds: 17-1

No matter where I put this line, I get the feeling it's going to get the most complaints.

As is, Rangers fans will complain that their odds should be much better because they traded for Matt Garza and will be getting a ton of pitchers back from the disabled list within the month. Meanwhile, Orioles and Indians fans will complain that there's no way the Rangers should be ahead of them here when the Rangers are behind them in the standings.

Everyone, stay calm and let me explain.

First, to the Rangers fans.

Your team lost eight of the first 10 games after the All-Star Break, including getting swept by both Cleveland and Baltimore. You're sliding hopelessly out of the AL West chase, and the jury is still out on whether you'll have Nelson Cruz for the rest of the season. The pitching rotation is great, but there's no way you currently have a better chance at a World Series than the teams ahead of you.

To the other contenders for the second wild-card spot, I submit the stretch of games from Aug. 9 through Sept. 1 as evidence favoring the Rangers. Over those 23 days, the Rangers play seven games against Houston, six against Seattle, three each against the Twins and White Sox, and two games against the Brewers.

The combined winning percentage of those opponents is .407. During the same span on the calendar, Baltimore's opponents have a .533 winning percentage, Cleveland's foes boast a .506 record and the Yankees deal with opponents winning 51.9 percent of their games.

That should be enough for Texas to snag the second wild card, entering into a dreaded one-game playoff against either Boston or Tampa Bay. All things considered, if anything, 17-1 is too generous.

Cincinnati Reds

Odds at All-Star Break: 15-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 6-7

Overall Record: 59-49

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 14-1

Trade Deadline Moves: None

Current Odds: 15-1

I still think they're the overwhelming favorite for the second wild-card spot in the National League, but their current five-game losing streak and upcoming stretch of five games against the Cardinals and Athletics at least induces a little bit of doubt.

At any rate, it's starting to seem unlikely that they will win the NL Central and avoid a one-game playoff against either the Pirates or Cardinals. The slightly less-favorable-than-a-coin-flip odds of winning that potential road game make it very difficult to give the Reds similar odds to a team like the Braves, even if they're close to equal in talent.

They didn't make any deadline trades, and were scarcely even mentioned as a potential trading partner for anyone. But they should be getting Ryan Ludwick back in short order, adding some pop to a lineup that gets pretty grim beyond the first four or five names.

The Field

Primary Teams: Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners

Current Odds: 15-1

This is the ultimate sucker bet, and if bookies aren't offering it, they should be.

When the Cardinals won the World Series in 2011, they finished the month of July with a record of 57-51.

That was something of an anomaly.

World Series champions typically enter the month of August at least a dozen games over .500. Some of them do so in ridiculous fashion, like when the 1998 New York Yankees wrapped up the trade deadline with a 76-27 record.

Let's get back to the 2011 Cardinals, though. When they finished the month of July at 57-51, it was the worst record for an eventual World Series champion since the Cardinals (ironically) finished the month of July four games above .500...in 1964.

Feel free to keep changing the year at the bottom of that link to see if a World Series champion has ever finished July below .500, but 50 years' worth of evidence is more than enough for me to rule out each of these teams still desperately clinging to their chances of a playoff berth.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Odds at All-Star Break: 16-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 8-5

Overall Record: 64-42

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 15-1

Trade Deadline Moves: None

Current Odds: 10-1

The inherent problem with Pittsburgh's line in Vegas is that it could win 40 straight games, and people would still be reminded that it hasn't made the playoffs in more than two decades. Much like the Oakland A's, the Pirates will never be a gambling favorite for the World Series until they actually get close to pulling it off.

That doesn't mean they aren't one of the most talented teams in the league, though.

It's still a bit too early to know how much of an impact Jason Grilli's injury might have on the bullpen and for how long, but to this point in the season, the Pirates have the best ERA in all the land.

Pitching wins pennants. Even for cities that haven't had a pennant in 34 years. It would have been a big plus if they could have added Alex Rios or Hunter Pence in right field, but they'll still compete.

Oakland Athletics

Odds at All-Star Break: 10-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 7-5

Overall Record: 63-44

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 9-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Alberto Callaspo from Angels

Current Odds: 9-1

It's quite staggering how many people either directly or effectively write off the A's as a team that will likely make the playoffs, but one that will do nothing when they get there.

They have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, and the starting rotation is hardly a quintet of pushovers.

Oakland is a serious World Series threat that only gets stronger if the struggling outfielders start reaching base at some semblance of an acceptable rate. The average on-base percentage in the American League is .320, but Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick and Chris Young are a combined .291 on the year.

Considering only 10 percent of all qualified players are below .291 on the season, that needs to change.

Even with that persistent problem, the A's still have one of the best records in the majors and World Series odds to match.

St. Louis Cardinals

Odds at All-Star Break: 7-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 5-7

Overall Record: 62-43

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 7-1

Trade Deadline Moves: None

Current Odds: 8.5-1

The Cardinals were unstoppable for the first two months of the season. At the conclusion of their convincing doubleheader sweep of the Giants on June 1, they were 37-18 and had the best record in all of baseball by 2.5 games.

Since then, they've had as many three-game winning streaks as they have three-game losing streaks and have churned out a 25-25 record—worse than both the Mariners and Marlins.

If any contender needed to make a deadline move just to shake things up a bit, it was the Cardinals. But they didn't do anything. For better or worse, they'll enter the home stretch of the season with Pete Kozma (0.5 WAR) as their everyday shortstop and Jon Jay (0.0 WAR) as their everyday center fielder.

With many teams getting better at the trade deadline and the Cardinals just getting another day older and riding a six-game losing streak, it felt appropriate to drop their percent chance of winning the World Series.

Possibly losing Yadier Molina to the disabled list certainly doesn't help, either.

Detroit Tigers

Odds at All-Star Break: 6.5-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 8-3

Overall Record: 60-45

Odds on Tuesday morning: 6-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Jose Veras from Astros, acquired Jose Iglesias from Red Sox

Current Odds: 8-1

The Tigers desperately needed to add a right-handed relief pitcher they could count on down the stretch, so they went out and got...Jose Veras?

Really?

Veras is 32 years old and hasn't finished a single season in his career with an ERA, FIP or xFIP better than 3.50. The only active relief pitcher with at least 300 career innings pitched and a worse walk rate than Veras is Carlos Marmol.

When "not quite as bad as Carlos Marmol" is your solution to being unable to escape the seventh inning unscathed, you're really flirting with disaster. Considering the plethora of right-handed relievers available, the move makes no sense. Kudos to the Astros for getting a prospect for him.

Nevertheless, the Tigers are still within a stone's throw of being the World Series favorites in my book. They lead all of baseball in runs per game, and have the best four-man rotation for the playoff run.

Tampa Bay Rays

Odds at All-Star Break: 16-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 9-2

Overall Record: 64-43

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 9-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Jesse Crain from White Sox

Current Odds: 7.5-1

Whether or not Jesse Crain is able to be a significant contributor for the rest of the season, the Rays have spent the past month establishing themselves as one of the primary teams to beat in the American League.

When they called up Wil Myers on June 17, they were three games above .500 and David Price's ERA for the season was 5.24. Since then, they're 28-10 and Price is back to pitching like a Cy Young Award winner.

They might not quite be one of the favorites, but the fact that they've jumped from 16-1 to (at least) 9-1 in less than two weeks means a lot of people have been betting on them to win it all.

Boston Red Sox

Odds at All-Star Break: 9-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 6-5

Overall Record: 64-44

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 8-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Jake Peavy from White Sox and Brayan Villarreal from Tigers

Current Odds: 7.5-1

If it felt like the Red Sox were mentioned in every single trade speculation over the past week, it's because they were. Pick any pitcher who was traded or rumored to be on the market, and there's inevitably a tweet or a column or something out there about the Red Sox being interested.

Out of seemingly nowhere on Tuesday, they even got involved in the Michael Young rumors.

For all of the commotion, they might have gotten the best deadline pickup of them all.

Jake Peavy goes to Boston and restores some order to a rotation that has tried anything and everything since we last saw Clay Buchholz on June 8. Felix Doubront has been great over the course of his past 14 starts, but Ryan Dempster, John Lackey and Jon Lester have not been pitching like the top-of-the-rotation arms they have needed to be.

If and when Buchholz makes it back to the mound, the Sox will be in the ever-enviable position of having too many starting pitchers—five of which could have been considered aces at some point in the not-so-distant past.

They're in excellent shape to make the playoffs, but it remains to be seen whether Peavy is enough to push them back ahead of the Rays to win the AL East crown.

Atlanta Braves

Odds at All-Star Break: 8-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 8-4

Overall Record: 62-45

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 7.5-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Acquired Scott Downs from Angels

Current Odds: 7-1

Reaffirming my "lack of credibility" and "East Coast bias" for fans of the NL Central, I'm giving the Braves better odds than any of the three teams destined to finish light years ahead of the Cubs and Brewers in their division.

When the regular season is finished, my guess is that the NL Central winner will probably be receiving better odds than the Braves. The problem is that there's no telling who will win the Central, and there's a pretty drastic difference between the odds of winning the World Series as a division champion and winning it as a wild card.

In the NL East, however, there's no question about who will win. And a team needs to actually make the playoffs before it can compete for the World Series.

Grabbing Downs from the Angels was a move about three months in the making, and one of the few deadline moves that I got right last week. If they didn't add a lefty, Luis Avilan's arm might have fallen off by the end of September.

Getting Brandon Beachy back on July 29 after a year on the DL might as well count as a deadline acquisition, too. He was far from midseason form in his first game, but as long as he's stretched out by October, he'll play a huge role for the Braves.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Odds at All-Star Break: 9-1

Record Since All-Star Break: 10-1

Overall Record: 57-48

Odds on Tuesday Morning: 7-1

Trade Deadline Moves: Signed Brian Wilson to minor-league deal, acquired Drew Butera from Twins

Current Odds: 6.5-1

High praise for a team that was five games below .500 and in dead last in its division just a month ago.

The Dodgers are finally playing as well as everyone was expecting before the season began. And they've done it while only having Matt Kemp in the starting lineup in nine of their last 45 games.

If all of their injury-prone players (most notably Kemp, Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez) are healthy for the playoffs, one has to assume the Dodgers would be the favorites to win the National League pennant.

Save for the Brian Wilson signing, which may amount to nothing, they didn't make any big moves at the trade deadline. But when you're as hot as the Dodgers have been, you don't need to change much.