San Diego Chargers' First Four Games will Indicate Where They're Headed

Whether the AFC West will be taken seriously probably depends on what happens in the first four weeks of the season.

Don't look toward San Diego leading the way. They've won the division title the past three seasons, but the way the early part of the schedule sets up, they have a big mountain to climb.

And most Chargers fans will look toward the past couple of seasons, where they started rough but still made the playoffs. This Chargers team cannot have that happen again, because they're one of the only few teams in the league that must get to the Super Bowl after so many years of promise.

Could they win the division again with an 8-8 record like they did last year? The three other AFC West teams are hoping that their offenses will benefit from an upgrade, so don't count on that.

Last season, the four teams combined to have a scoring ratio of minus-260. Horrible doesn't begin to describe that number. The next division up in the conference—AFC South—was at minus-13.

Also, the AFC West was the only division in the conference to have only one team with a positive scoring ratio. That turned out to be the Chargers, with a plus-98.

San Diego could probably win the division again with an 8-8 record, but they shouldn't think that way, because there's a good chance two of the three teams in the division could ride a hot start to a 10-win season or better. Four-game collapses don't happen every season.

Only so many times can a team suffer heartbreaking losses and rally around it to great performances in the end. This team needs to strike first.

They'll have their chance to do that against great teams. Three of their first four games are against winning teams, with the lone other being the rival Oakland Raiders (5-11).

Among the AFC West teams, San Diego has the toughest four-game schedule to start the season at .609; Kansas City is next at .585. Denver and Oakland have a chance to get hot early, facing a four-game schedule where their opponents combined are sub-.500.

If the AFC West teams not named San Diego can find an offense, one or two of them could storm out to a 4-0 or 3-1 start. The chances that it's San Diego is slim. Look at the past two seasons.

• 2008: Their first four opponents had a previous-season win percentage of .312. They finished only 2-2.
• 2007: Their first four opponents had a previous-season win percentage of .656. They went 2-2 as well.

They can't a 2-2 start happen a third time, even if their four-team start is the toughest among the AFC West teams.

Two of the four teams San Diego will face were in the top three in points allowed last season: Pittsburgh (first) and Baltimore (third).

The last time San Diego had to face Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the same season was 2003; the Chargers lost both games and eventually didn't make the playoffs.

The first four games of the 2009 season will dictate whether the AFC West has become stronger or weaker. Kansas City, Denver and maybe even Oakland will probably lead that charge, and it will be up to San Diego to match them, or else it will be no playoffs and definitely no Super Bowl.