Owens Acquisition Won't End Bills Playoff Drought

January 8, 2000.

That was the day the Tennessee Titans defeated the Buffalo Bills 22-16 in an AFC Wildcard game on one of the most controversial last second plays in NFL history- the Music City Miracle. That was also the last time Buffalo participated in a playoff game.

Bills fans everywhere claim the franchise has been cursed since that fateful winter afternoon. A realist would be able to point out that, whether Frank Wycheck's lateral to Kevin Dyson was slightly forward or not, players not filling their lanes on kickoff coverage is not a curse, it's just a complete lack of fundamentals.

So the Bills are not cursed, they just haven't been very good. In the nine seasons since the MCM, they have compiled a record of 60-84, started seven different quarterbacks and have had four head coaches.

Despite perceived damnation and other negative issues surrounding the franchise, such as a potential move to Toronto, optimism hasn't been this high in Western New York since the Jim Kelly Era. The reason is short and sweet: wide receiver Terrell Owens.

Owens, one of the NFL's biggest playmakers, signed a one-year deal worth $6.5M on January 7 and immediately had Bills fans believing that all bad things must come to an end.

Some analysts agree, saying they will challenge New England for the AFC East crown, while others say the Bills are a playoff lock with or without a division title.

Warning: If you are a Buffalo faithful stop reading now because while optimists are predicting somewhere between 10 and 12 wins, this realist says the Bills score a fourth consecutive 7-9 season. 

Here are three reasons why:

1. Terrell Owens' ability is on the decline. Because Owens has historically been cooperative in year one with his new team and he is essentially playing for a new contract in 2010, I don't think he will destroy the Bills organization the way he did in San Francisco, Philadelphia and Dallas.

However, he is 35 years old, so he is in decline physically, but statistics show his game is also on the slide. After a fantastic 2007 season in which he posted 81 receptions, 1,355 yards and 15 touchdowns, Owens' numbers fell hard in 2008 when he produced just 69-1,052-10 and was among the league leaders in drops.

2. Bills face a brutal schedule. Last year was a great opportunity for the young Bills to end their nine-year playoff drought. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady didn't make it to halftime of Week 1, leaving the AFC East race wide open, and their opponents finished with a combined record of 85-123, yet they still failed to reach the .500 mark.

This season their 16-game journey includes six teams that made the postseason in 2008 and just three teams that finished with a record below .500.

3. Weak in the trenches. Games are won and lost in the trenches, meaning the team that dominates the line of scrimmage will come out on top more often than not.

The Bills were 14th in the NFL in rushing average at 4.2 yards per attempt, and allowed 38 sacks which was the tenth-highest total in the league in 2008. Those numbers could get worse in 2009 after the loss of Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters.

The defense wasn't any better, totaling just 24 sacks (T-third worst in NFL) and allowing 4.3 yards per rushing attempt (11th worst). 

To be fair, lets look at three ways the Bills could be contenders in 2009:

1. Trent Edwards becomes an elite quarterback. Scoff if you will but Edwards looked to be just that through the first six weeks of 2008. Not counting a Week 5 loss in Arizona where he left after the first drive due to a concussion, Edwards was throwing for an average of 238 yards per game, had thrown just two interceptions and was completing a ridiculous 70 percent of his passes.

With that, the Bills were off to a 5-1 start, but Edwards was never the same after the concussion. If he can stay healthy and build a solid rapport with Owens, Edwards has the potential to be a Pro Bowl-quality quarterback.

2. The "Aaron's" create a formidable pass rush. Buffalo spent the 11th overall pick in this year's draft on Penn State sack-master Aaron Maybin, but he won't be the only Aaron in the mix in 2009. Former Pro Bowl defensive end Aaron Schobel will return after missing the final 11 games a season ago.

Schobel is two years removed from a 14 sack campaign and can still be one of the best pass rushers in the NFL when healthy. If the Bills get production from young Aaron and veteran Aaron, they might eliminate that glaring weakness in the trenches.

3. Don't forget about Lynch. Offensive coordinator Turk Schonert could understandably get the urge to pass on every down with receiving threats Owens, Lee Evans, James Hardy and Josh Reed, but if he's smart he'll hold off on implementing the spread offense.

It is critical that running back Marshawn Lynch doesn't get lost in the shuffle the way he did at times last season.

In fact, Lynch never carried the ball more than 23 times in a game and only rushed 20 or more times in four games in 2008. He still found a way to grind out 1,036 yards and eight touchdowns, meaning if Lynch is getting 25-plus carries it will open more passing lanes for a potentially lethal air strike.

The amount of success the Bills have this season will be predicated on how well they protect Edwards and whether or not they can find ways to pressure the opposing quarterback, something they often failed to do last year. 

Owens' presence should drastically improve the offense, but other lingering issues on the roster will ultimately keep Buffalo out of a tenth consecutive postseason.