New Orleans Saints 2009 Season Expectations

The bad thing about being an optimist is that if you set the bar too high, you can blind yourself with hope en route to utter disappointment and despair.  The skeptics give you the, “I told you so” speech.

The bad thing about being a skeptic is that you can never see the light at the end of the tunnel, but can still be pleasantly surprised. The optimists call you a bandwagoner.

Ignorant hopeful or cynical realist?

I think I fall under the latter category, but as many Saints fans may attest to, the title can change from week to week.  Though for the first time in a long time, Saints fans have a legitimate reason to have high expectations for the 2009 season. 

The last time Saints fans felt as hopeful about an upcoming season as they do now was after little known Aaron Brooks led the Who Dats to their first ever playoff victory—sans Ricky Williams and Joe Horn—against the defending world champion St. Louis Rams, no less. 

What followed were five years of mediocrity which, coupled with Hurricane Katrina, led to the eventual purging of the staff and roster.  Skepticism was at an all-time high until Saint Drew led the boys in black and gold to an NFC Conference Championship game in 2006. 

So what’s to make of this mess?  If we expect too much, we fail.  If we don’t expect anything, we triumph. 

Here are this hopeful realist’s expectations for the 2009 New Orleans Saints:

The Saints offense will look a little strange when it takes the field this year, as it will be without one of its most recognizable and beloved players, Deuce McAllister.  The writing was on the wall long before last season ended.  Sean Payton’s offense found little room for McAllister, while still ranking tops overall. 

Without question, the offense goes through Drew Brees.  Even with Marques Colston out for five games, or any semblance of a running game, Brees still managed to pass for over 5,000 yards while making guys like Lance Moore a household name.  Expect more of the same from Brees.

The only major signing in the backfield (and really, the whole offense) this off-season was fullback Heath Evans.  That leaves Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Mike Bell (along with a crop of recently signed free agents) as the only options at the running back position. 

Even though the Saints struggled on short yardage downs last season, don’t expect Payton to mess with this group too much.  He knows Brees can move the ball and is hoping a revamped defense will make up for the rare shortcomings of the offense. 

Look for the Saints to run the ball later in games if and when they’re nursing a lead.  Otherwise, the play calling is still pass first, and I can’t blame them – especially considering the entire offensive line, which ranked third last year in sacks allowed, returns intact. 

If Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey can stay healthy, Payton could abandon the running game completely.  The Saints bolster one of the deepest and talented receiving corps in the league, even without Robert Meachem and sophomore hopeful Adrian Arrington. 

As long as the defense can be average, the Saints should remain the most feared offensive attack in the NFL.

For once, I’m excited to talk about what to expect from the much-maligned Saints defense.  Gone are the days of bend but don’t break.  Gone are the days of getting bailed out by the offense.  Led by new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the defense should be something the Saints can brag about.

Expect Williams to get the most out of his players and to put the playmakers into position to do what they do best. 

Williams’ reputation of getting players to realize their full potential bodes well for the likes of Will Smith and Charles Grant, who seemed to disappear last season after becoming the highest paid pair of defensive ends in the league.

Even with possible suspensions still looming for Grant and Smith, don’t look for the Saints to lose too much of a step on the defensive line. 

Bobby McCray became more comfortable as last season progressed and newly acquired Paul Spicer should fill in admirably in a limited role.  “[Spicer] is a guy that can give us the best four games of his career if we need him to.  He’s a tough, smart player,” said Williams.  He would know, having coached Spicer in Jacksonville.

The Saints did a great job of stockpiling defenders up and down the depth chart through free agency and the draft.  Jabari Greer, Darren Sharper, Rod Coleman, Dan Morgan, and Malcolm Jenkins will be joining Spicer as the newest Saints that could make an immediate impact. 

The key departure was Mike McKenzie, but the team has added a lot to what is now a deep secondary, which many critics have blamed for the Saints’ failures over the past two seasons. 

Additions to the defensive line, linebacking corps, and secondary have already made the Saints defense better than it was last year.  With Williams calling the shots opposite Payton, expect the Saints defense to finish in the top 12 or 13 in the league this year.  

Barring the occasional injury, there isn’t a whole lot that can stop the Saints offense.  Even with the lack of a running game, Brees should find no problem throwing points on the board, literally.  Though as we’ve seen in seasons past, Sean Payton sometimes has a tendency to outcoach himself. 

Even though the front office has done a remarkable job of turning the defense around in a short period of time, the defense is still the Achilles Heel of the team.  That perception won’t change until they’ve proved themselves on the field. 

After sitting out of football all of last year for health issues, both Rod Coleman and Dan Morgan could end up not making it past training camp.  If Morgan and Coleman can return to the forms that made them Pro Bowlers in 2004 and 2005, respectively, they could be penciled in as starters.  If not, the Saints lose valuable depth and experience. 

The last element working against the Saints this season is the schedule.  In the Sean Payton era, the Saints are 9-9 in the NFC South and are 12-13 overall after the half-way point. 

This season, six out of the last 10 games are against division opponents.  If the Saints are going to make the playoffs, they’re going to have to finish the season with a winning division record. 

My cynical side tells me that the Saints will screw everything up in typical Saints fashion, just like they do every year. 

My optimistic side tells me that the 2009 off-season was wildly successful up to this point and that I have every reason to believe that this is the best Saints team assembled in a long time.

And quite frankly, it is.  From top to bottom, from coach to player, this team is ready to make a legitimate Super Bowl push...just not this year.

Look for the Saints to finish in the ballpark of 10-6, but miss the playoffs.  If the Saints were playing in a weaker division with a more accommodating schedule (bye week is in week five), they might have a better shot at the post-season.  Couple that with a defense facing an uphill battle for success, and the Saints fall just short once again. 

It breaks my heart to have to pick against my own team.  I would love to pick the Saints as Super Bowl champions every year, but I know I’d only be fooling myself.  And to say they’re just going to flop on their facemasks would give me no incentive to want to see them play. 

That’s the bad thing about being a hopeful realist.