Eight Is Enough : Is 2009 the Year the Texans Make The Playoffs?

Eight seasons is quite a while.  It’s more than double the average length of a NFL career, and coincidentally, it’s the amount of time the Texans will be in the NFL. 

Come this September fans will flock to Reliant Stadium for another season, the eighth for the Texans.  Yet in all their years, the Texans claim to fame has been a mediocre record. 

For these past two seasons, each season ended same — a win at home, and a .500 record; so the seeds of prosperity have been planted to see this franchise finally reach the first goal of any organization: the playoffs.

Nevertheless, the jump from mediocre to a playoff team is quite a leap.  Yet for the fan base, they’re disinterested in hearing how hard a jump from 8 to 10+ wins may be.

They don’t want bickering, they want results.

So going into their eight season, in a state that makes no apologies for its love of football, and in a city whose neighbor to the north garners unprecedented national attention for its activities off the football field, will the 2009 season be the one where the Texans finally ascend to a status of prominence, and participate in a playoff game?

And the answer is yes.

Anything short of the playoffs should be an utter disappointment for head coach Gary Kubiak and his staff. For a team that is likely to be the “sleeper” pick of many NFL pundits this upcoming season, the personnel assembled should do a good job of living up to some of the hype and expectations. 

Following the franchise from the end of the 2008 season, through free agency, the draft and now to their training program, the team’s key cogs remain, and it should bode well for their playoff chances 2009.

The High-Powered Offense

Matt Schaub will beginning his third year as the starting quarterback, and showed improvement over the course of last season.  With over 3000 yards passing and 15 touchdowns in 11 starts, Schaub has continued to make strides as both a leader and proficient passer.

To aid Schaub, all starters on offense from last year will return.

Duane Brown—the second-year pro who started all 16 games last year at left tackle—surpassed expectations in year one, and with an off-season of further preparation is likely to make greater strides to protect the blindside of Schaub.

Eric Winston—the Pro-Bowl caliber right tackle—anchors the other end of the line, while center Chris Myers, along with guards Chester Pitts and Mike Brisiel fill in the rest of a starting offensive line who started all 16 games in 2008.  Their health, coupled with their play was the foundation of the third ranked offense, and a 1,200 yard rusher.  

With the Texans finishing with the third-ranked offense in terms of total yards (382.1 yards per game), the possibility is apparent that the offense can improve, or at they very least, maintain what they did last year.   

Steve Slaton is back (led all rookies in rushing), all the receivers are back, and as long the Pro-Bowler Andre Johnson will be on the field the team will be fine. 

Andre’s presence forces defensive coordinators to shift coverage his direction, thus allowing number two wide receiver Kevin Walter (899 yards and eight touchdowns ’08) and Pro-Bowl TE Owen Daniels (862 yards and two touchdowns) one-on-one coverage they generally take advantage of.

The one apparent problem with the Texans offense—lack of a quality backup for Slaton—has seemed to be addressed with additions through free agency (Arian Foster and Jeremiah Johnson). And with Chris Brown coming back from IR, the Texans have at least three options at the backup running back spot.

Elsewhere, in the draft they added a skilled blocking tight end for short-yardage situations (Anthony Hill) and a versatile prospect that can lineup anywhere from H-Back to being the Quarterback in the “Wildcat” formation (James Casey). Thus, what was a proficient offense, has added depth, and versatility.

However, what hurt the team from ascending to becoming a “winner” and a 9-7 or 10-6 record was their defense.

The Up-and-Coming Defense

Ranked 27^th in the league in terms of points allowed per game at 24.6, the defense faltered on more than one occasion to provide pivotal third down stops. 

The defense has the pieces, Pro-Bowl DE Mario Williams accumulated nearly half of the team’s sacks, Pro-Bowl LB DeMeco Ryans is one of the top tacklers in the league and CB Dunta Robinson is the emotional leader of the team, while being one of the hardest hitters in the league despite his 5-10, 184 lb. stature.

However, while there were some problems in terms of personnel around the aforementioned players, with some additions via the draft and free agency—along with a new defensive coaching staff—it seems the defense is ready to make a jump from “futile” to “mediocre”. 

Anthony Weaver, the DE starting opposite Mario Williams for the past three seasons, had only one sack during his tenure with the Texans, and failed to get to the quarterback the last two seasons.

He was released this offseason.

To fill the void, the Texans went out and signed Antonio Smith from the NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. With Smith’s arrival, not only is he reunited with his former coach Frank Bush (new Texans defensive coordinator), but his presence upgrades the left defensive end position.  He’s a better pass rusher than Weaver (nine sacks the past two seasons) and as equally effective defending the run.

The Texans second round selection, DE Connor Barwin, allows for an athletic, but technically raw pass rusher who could develop to see plenty of playing time in passing situations this season. If anything, Barwin’s arrival could push Tim Bulman (four sacks in 2008) for playing time on passing downs.

The defensive tackle position (former first-round picks, Amobi Okoye and Travis Johnson) isn’t one filled with big and bulky run-stopping tackles. Yet despite the sentiments of some fans—the position could be much worse.  

As for Okoye, it will be telling if he reverts back to being a productive pass rusher as seen in his rookie year (5.5 sacks in '07) or if he is nearly non-existent as a rusher as seen in '08, the season where he battled injuries and had only one sack.

For Johnson, he’s a solid defender against the run, but that’s about it.  It seems unlikely he’ll develop into a Pro-Bowl DT, nor develop into much of a pass-rushing threat (one sack the last three seasons), but as long as he stays vigilante against the run, then he can continue to contribute. 

If DelJuan Robinson can push Okoye and Johnson for playing time, it will undoubtedly increase the productivity of a critical position.

DeMeco Ryans—the Texans most consistent tackler—anchors the linebacking corps. The Pro-Bowler and  Zac Diles (who  was the team’s leading tackler last season until being placed on IR), have become a formidable duo.

And with the first round selection of USC linebacker Brian Cushing, it solidified the other OLB position with an athletic pass rusher, and hard-nosed tackler.  

As for the secondary, there are plenty of quick and agile corners, but some have poor ball-recognition skills (Jacque Reeves), while others are far from consistent to be considered solid contributors (Fred Bennett). 

Meanwhile, as Eugene Wilson has asserted himself to be the starting Free Safety, the safety position remains a bit of a mystery. And with Dunta Robinson likely to miss no time despite his gripes with management, the secondary played much better when Dunta is in the lineup, as evident by the progress the secondary made in the second half of 2008.

Nevertheless, while the offense seems to have become more versatile, and as the defense looks to have added a couple of pieces, looking at the team’s situation in May, things bode well that they can finally get over the hump, and make the playoffs. 

Yet while looking at it during the optimistic perspective with two months to go until training camp, there are still plenty of flaws.

This Team Ain't Perfect

While Matt Schaub could likely play like a Pro-Bowl QB in ’09, there is the same chance he would miss a considerable chunk of the season.  Starting only 11 games a season during his two years in Houston, Schaub’s injury history is real cause for concern. 

Having sent Sage Rosenfels to Minnesota, the backup quarterback is now Dan Orlovsky. At this time, Orlovsky is more known for running out the back of the end zone, then his production as a quarterback.

So if Schaub goes down—as his own history would dictate—the offense is likely to  struggle.

The team signed some backup running backs, but Chris Brown has a history of back problems, Ryan Moats didn’t excel as the backup when given the opportunity last season, and as for the undrafted free agents (Foster and Johnson) it’s hard to gauge whether either will do any better than Moats.

As for the defense, if Mario succumbs to any injury, the pass rush takes a big hit, so the defense subsequently will as well. Having accumulated 12 of the team’s 25 sacks, he’s the only consistent presence off the edge, and actually makes the players around him better.

In the secondary, Jacque Reeves made some plays, but at the same time succumbed to foolish ones that allowed him to fail to locate the ball in mid-air and make a play on it. If those problems continue, then big plays will continue be a problem with this group of defenders.

Furthermore, if players expected to perform well (Smith, Okoye and Cushing) don’t play as expected, the same problems apparent by the defense in 2008 will likely continue. 

Not to mention the Texans could just as well falter within the division.  Never having much success against either the Tennessee Titans or Indianapolis Colts, despite each team’s apparent drop off in terms of talent this off-season, the franchise from Houston has yet to demonstrate they can consistently defeat either of the aforementioned teams.

Winning at least one game against the Colts and Titans will be required if the playoffs are to be seen.

In the end, this season, the eighth for the Texans, should be the one that finally sees them playing meaningful football in January.

The Texans already had the makings of a playoff team, and with the additions made via free agency plus the draft, the front office addressed problems on the depth chart.

So assuming Schaub can stay healthy then there should be no reason why this season is the one Texans fans can’t finally embrace a winning football franchise that makes a run in the playoffs.