NBA Mock Draft 2013: How Each Move Will Shake Up the Draft
NBA draft fanatics rejoice—we are now just days away from seeing the event unfold on June 27.
With a class that is marked by a dearth of future franchise players and a bounty of quality prospects, the 2013 draft figures to be as unpredictable as any in recent memory. With plenty of smoke screens out there as well as legitimate buzz, there's bound to be plenty of surprises.
Even the No. 1 pick is far from a decided matter. While Nerlens Noel has been the favorite to go No. 1 since before he joined Kentucky last season, the Cleveland Cavaliers could go with one of about four different options, with each having a drastic effect on the rest of the draft.
Here I'll project each pick and assess it's "shake-up" factor based upon how much impact it has on the rest of the first round. A "1" means that the pick wouldn't surprise anyone and has little effect while a "10" would be completely unexpected, thus shaking up the draft.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: C Alex Len, Maryland
Barring a trade, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, the Cavaliers appear set to open up the night with an interesting move. The rumor has been out for a while that Cleveland is interested in Maryland's Alex Len, and Alex Kennedy of USA Today confirms that the rumor is legitimate.
While this pick wouldn't be completely shocking, since it's been reported, it would still be a major shake-up to the draft. For the majority of the buildup to the event, Noel has been considered the favorite to go No. 1.
Should the Cavs go with the 7-footer from Maryland, it would mean that the Magic would likely go with Noel, rather than Victor Oladipo or Ben McLemore and setting one of them up for a slide.
Shake-Up Rating: 8.5 out of 10
2. Orlando Magic: C Nerlens Noel, Kentucky
Looking at the Magic's roster, their biggest need is probably a scorer. The team simply doesn't have anyone to go to when they need a bucket or things break down offensively.
That means if the Cavs were to go with Noel, they'd likely be looking at Victor Oladipo or Ben McLemore here. However, in this scenario, Noel would still be available, and his upside is too great to deny.
If Noel can pack on some muscle to his 6'11", 206-pound frame, he has the athleticism and shot-blocking ability to be a real anchor at center.
It would be somewhat surprising that he would fall to No. 2 after all of the hype, but this really wouldn't have near the ripple effect of the Len pick.
Shake-Up Rating: 5 out of 10
3. Washington Wizards: SF Otto Porter, Georgetown
Otto Porter is the perfect fit for Washington.
The Georgetown product is as sure a thing as there in the draft thanks to his excellent defense, and the Wizards already had the No. 8 defense in the league, allowing 95.8 points per game.
As long as the Cavs don't surprise people and snag Porter with the top pick, this seems like the most guaranteed pick of the night. Perfect prospect to team fit.
Shake-Up Rating: 1 out of 10
4. Charlotte Bobcats: SF/PF Anthony Bennett, UNLV
The Bobcats are in an interesting position at No. 4.
The best players on the board are probably Oladipo and McLemore at this point, but shooting guard Gerald Henderson was on of the few bright spots on this team last year.
According to Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe, the Bobcats are interested in offering this pick to the Miami Heat for Chris Bosh. That would be the ultimate shake-up to the draft, but it doesn't seem likely since the Heat were pretty successful with Bosh in the lineup this past season.
That means that they may do the next best thing for their front line and take Bennett. He could be the offensive specialist to pair with the defensive minded Bismack Biyombo and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist.
Shake-Up Rating 7 out of 10
5. Phoenix Suns: SG Victor Oladipo, Indiana
If the first four picks go as listed above, the Suns will be placed in the ideal situation—they will have their pick of Oladipo and McLemore.
Oladipo appears to be the safer of the two. He isn't as explosive with the ball in his hands, but his on-ball defense is tops in the class. In that regard, he'll contribute right away.
This would be one of the least shocking picks of the draft. Oladipo could easily go No. 2 if Noel isn't available at that point.
Shake-Up Rating 2 out of 10
6. New Orleans Pelicans: SG Ben McLemore, Kansas
If one of the top two shooting guards is available when the Pelicans go on the clock, they'll have to make a decision about their future with Eric Gordon.
The promising 24-year-old has shown flashes of brilliance in his career but missed 40 games last season and only played in nine games in the 2011-12 season.
McLemore would give them a much more reliable option in the backcourt.
In terms of shake-up, this would be a pretty sizable hit for the Pistons, who could use a 2-guard of McLemore's caliber.
Shake-Up Rating: 5 out of 10
7. Sacramento Kings: PG Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
Michael Carter-Williams probably isn't better than Trey Burke. But the fact that he could still be drafted over him is the perfect example of how unpredictable draft this is.
Burke had the much more productive college career, but Carter-Williams has great length for a point guard at 6'6" and brings a totally different skill set to the table than Isaiah Thomas or Tyreke Evans.
This pick really wouldn't rock the order. There's a good chance Burke and Williams-Carter are taken in back-to-back picks here, so only the Pistons would really be affected.
Shake-Up Rating: 2 out of 10
8. Detroit Pistons: PG Trey Burke, Michigan
If the Pistons are put in this situation, the pick is a no-brainer. The Michigan product was one of college basketball's biggest stars last year and the most offensively gifted point guard in the class.
Brandon Knight was a serviceable option last year, but Burke is the kind of floor general that the Pistons couldn't pass on.
Shake-Up Rating: 1 out of 10
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: SG/PG C.J. McCollum, Lehigh
McCollum is a dynamic scorer who knocked down over 50 percent of his threes in his final season at Lehigh. The Timberwolves are a team with a playmaking point guard in Ricky Rubio, a legit superstar in Kevin Love and a bruising big man in Nikola Pekovic.
A shooter with a sweet touch would round out a promising young core, and that's just what McCollum does for them. He's a bit of a hybrid, though, so it affects the remaining teams that would be looking to make him their point guard of the future.
Shake-Up Rating: 6 out of 10
10. Portland Trail Blazers: SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia
The Trail Blazers won't mind the Timberwolves going with McCollum over Caldwell-Pope at No. 9. It allows them to scoop up the more traditional shooting guard to pair with Damian Lillard in their backcourt.
This is another pick that seems to be the perfect pairing of prospect value and teem need as the Blazers fill a need with a quality player.
Shake-Up Rating: 2 out of 10
11. Philadelphia 76ers: PF Cody Zeller, Indiana
Another nearly guaranteed pick here.
It's difficult to envision Zeller going to any of the team's picking in the top 10 unless a team has done a great job of hiding its interest, yet he's a great value to the 'Sixers. They have a clear-cut need for options in the post.
Shake-Up Rating: 1 of 10
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Toronto): SG Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
The Thunder make a bit of a splash here by taking one of the most controversial prospects in the draft. Muhammad is a volume scorer capable of getting to the rim and making plays. Placed in the wrong stiuation, he could easily be a bust.
However, playing alongside two alpha dogs in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant just might be the right situation for him.
Muhammad has been thought of as a top-five pick in the past, but he's also been considered much later than this spot. Nothing would really be surprising with him.
Shake-Up Rating: 3.5 out of 10
13. Dallas Mavericks: SG/SF Sergey Karasev, Russia
Shake-up alert!
The prediction here is really about the player, but not the team. According to Pro Basketball Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers are interested in trading up for this pick with the intention of taking Karasev.
It's very possible that the Cavaliers do pull the trigger on the trade and shake up the draft once again after taking Len No. 1 overall. If they can also add veteran small forward Shawn Marion in the deal too, then it's obviously one of the biggest stories of the draft.
Shake-Up Rating: 7.5 out of 10
14. Utah Jazz: PG Shane Larkin, Miami
This pick will reveal a lot about the way the Jazz front office wants to build this team.
Larkin isn't the most promising prospect. His college career was great, but his size and skill set make him a low-risk, low-reward pick. He could be a better, younger and cheaper option at the position than Randy Foye or Mo Williams, but he's not a future All-Star.
The alternative would be taking Germany's Dennis Schroeder. Going the international route is always a risk, but he does have a higher ceiling than Larkin.
In this mock, the Jazz go the safe rout and force someone else to take the risk on Schroeder.
Shake-Up Rating: 4.5 out of 10
15. Milwaukee Bucks: SG Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State
The Milwaukee Bucks would surprise absolutely no one if this were their selection.
Bringing on Franklin, who averaged 9.5 rebounds per game as a shooting guard for the Aztecs last season, gives them a replacement for Monta Ellis that is going to hustle night in and night out.
His athleticism makes him a potential two-way player. Like fellow Aztec and former mid-first-rounder Kawhi Leonard, Franklin could be the steal of this draft.
Shake-Up Rating: 2 out of 10
16. Boston Celtics: C Steven Adams, Pittsburgh
The Doc Rivers era is likely done in Boston, as Jackie MacMullan of ESPN reported that the Clippers and C's have agreed to a deal on a trade for the coach.
What better way to start the new era than taking a big man with top-10 potential? Adams' career at Pittsburgh was nothing special, but he still has a lot of room to grow and shows potential. If he goes any earlier than this it will shake things up, but this is a good spot for him.
Shake-Up Rating: 3 out of 10
17. Atlanta Hawks: SF Giannis Adetokunbo, Greece
International prospects are always risky. Between the uncertainty in when they will come to the league to questions over the talent they have faced, there's no telling what a team is getting when they go international.
That being said, the Hawks are in a great position to take the gamble. They have back-to-back picks, and Adetokunbo is considered to be one of the better European prospects in this class.
Another pick that wouldn't create much buzz.
Shake-Up Rating: 2 out of 10
18. Atlanta Hawks (from Houston via Brooklyn): PF Mason Plumlee, Duke
This would be the perfect pick to pair with Adetokunbo. Plumlee is a high-motor rebounder that will bring energy to the Hawks bench as they likely move on without Josh Smith.
Plumlee isn't a home-run pick, but the safety is appealing for the Hawks if they take a risk with the 17th pick.
Shake-Up Rating 1 out of 10
19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles): SG/SF Glen Rice Jr., NBA D-League
Assuming the Cavs trade this pick to the Mavericks, they'll be looking to add someone that could replace Marion at the 3 on the cheap. The most NBA-ready wingman on the board is Glen Rice Jr., whose time on the NBA D-league circuit makes him a prime candidate to contribute early.
Mark Cuban isn't the most patient guy in the world, so that's something he will value.
Shake-Up Factor: 3 out of 10
20. Chicago Bulls: C Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
While the early part of the draft is marked with a lot of scorers on the wing, the latter half of the first round is chalk full of big men that will at least become valuable rotational players. Dieng is the first of those and the perfect fit for Chicago's style of play.
Dieng is a high-energy defender that would offer the kind of depth on the interior that the Bulls missed without Omer Asik on the roster last season.
Shake-Up Factor: 2 out of 10
21. Utah Jazz (from Golden State via Brooklyn): SG Ricardo Ledo, Providence
After taking a sure thing in Shane Larkin, the Jazz make as big a splash as you can this late in the first by taking Ricardo Ledo out of Providence. He wasn't eligible to play for the Friars last season, but he was a highly rated prospect coming out of high school.
Shake-Up Factor: 4 out of 10
22. Brooklyn Nets: C Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga
Yes, Brooklyn already has a great center in Brook Lopez. But this late into the first round, teams aren't expecting to find the next All-Star; it's about finding role players that will make differences.
Olynyk is one of the most offensively gifted big men in the draft and could go much earlier than 22. He would be too good of a value for the Nets to pass up here.
Shake-Up Factor: 2 out of 10
23. Indiana Pacers: PG Dennis Schroeder, Germany
Considering Schroeder is a serious option for the Jazz over 10 picks earlier in the round. The Pacers would love to have the opportunity to get Schroeder here. He wouldn't be able to help right away, but he could become the long-term backup to George Hill at the point.
Shake-Up Factor: 3 out of 10
24. New York Knicks: PF Tony Mitchell, North Texas
After the aging Tyson Chandler, the Knicks don't have anything in the post. Tony Mitchell is another late-first-rounder that has mid-first-round talent. Being on the same team with established veterans like Chandler and Carmelo Anthony could be the right atmosphere to help him reach his potential.
Shake-Up Factor: 2 out of 10
25. Los Angeles Clippers: C Jeff Withey, Kansas
The Clippers have a clear-cut need that should be addressed with this pick—some toughness and depth on the inside. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol absolutely mauled Los Angeles in their opening-round series, exposing the team's one glaring weakness.
Here they get a chance to take a step toward fixing it with another tough post player in the latter part of Round 1.
Shake-Up Factor: 2 out of 10
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis via Houston): SG Allen Crabbe, California
As referenced in the Timberwolves' earlier selection of C.J. McCollum, Minnesota has nearly every piece in place to build a roster that can contend, but perimeter options to complement Rubio's drive and kick game are scarce.
Crabbe averaged over 18 points per game for Cal last season and is a lights-out shooter.
Shake-Up Factor: 2 out of 10
27. Denver Nuggets: SG Tim Hardaway, Jr., Michigan
One of Denver's greatest strengths as a team is the the depth on its roster. Should Andre Iguodala not come back, the Nuggets are going to need multiple pieces to pick up the pace to cover his production. Tim Hardaway Jr. could help in that area.
He doesn't have the highest ceiling, but he's fairly polished for a prospect this late into the draft.
Shake-Up Factor: 2 out of 10
28. San Antonio Spurs: C Lucas Nogueira, Brazil
The Spurs organization has been known to utilize the draft-and-stash philosophy on occasion. Nogueira could be the next success story to come out of that strategy. He's a long, athletic shot-blocker that could fit a need for the eventual post-Tim Duncan era in San Antonio.
Shake-Up Factor: 3 out of 10
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: PF/C Rudy Gobert, France
Another team that would be well off to take the risky path of draft-and-stash with a European big man, the Thunder already have an established roster and an early pick to get a contributor. This allows them to keep roster flexibility and add a player in Gobert that could fill a need down the road.
Shake-Up Factor: 2 out of 10
30. Phoenix Suns (from Miami via L.A. and Cleveland): SF Tony Snell, New Mexico
Picking this far back in the first round, the best strategy is to simply go for the player with the best upside. In this case that's Snell. At 6'7" and 198 pounds, he needs to add some bulk to his frame, but he's a well-rounded player that could eventually develop into a poor man's Kawhi Leonard.
Not bad for the last pick of the first round.
Shake-Up Factor: 2 out of 10
