2013 NBA Mock Draft: Projecting Biggest Busts in First Round
The 2013 NBA draft is chock-full of potential busts in what is one of the weaker crops of prospects in recent years. Whether it be red flags in terms of lack of development, medical history or failure to live up to expectations in college, plenty of risk is associated with several prospective pros in particular.
In ESPN expert Chad Ford's ranking of Top 100 prospects, only three in the first 30 played four years of collegiate hoops.
That makes the evaluating process even trickier, as many players don't have a lot of experience under their belt and therefore not as much tape to look over as NBA franchises would likely desire.
Here is a mock of the entire first round of June 27's draft in Brooklyn's Barclays Center, and the focus of the analysis will be on players with the most bust potential.
Note: Free agency information obtained via ESPN.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nerlens Noel, C/PF, Kentucky
Rehired head coach Mike Brown will build the foundation of this team around defense—and should do so with Noel, even though the Wildcat product is coming off of a torn ACL.
Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio dispelled the notion that Alex Len will be the choice, stating that there is no front-runner, which leaves Noel still in play:
The Cavaliers have four picks in the first 34, but this is clearly the most important one. Noel will disrupt guards crashing the paint and big men on the lower block, utilizing his unique athleticism and incredible defensive instincts to make an immediate impact despite a slim frame.
2. Orlando Magic: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
Even though Arron Afflalo is a surefire starter, McLemore is the best overall prospect available at this stage in terms of physical gifts and future upside. The Magic were the worst team in the Association and desperately need to accumulate core players.
If outsiders are worried about how the small ball will work in Orlando, check out the three-guard lineup the San Antonio Spurs deploy with Tony Parker, Danny Green and Manu Ginobili.
Should Jameer Nelson, Afflalo and McLemore be on the court at once with Nikola Vucevic on the inside, it would create extremely difficult matchups for opponents.
3. Washington Wizards: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Similar to the small-ball style in the previous pick, the Wizards go with Oladipo to throw into the mix with Bradley Beal and John Wall.
The reason this can work is because Oladipo has a relentless motor and can guard just about any perimeter player thrown in front of him regardless of size. That's something the Wizards need, and Oladipo also crashes the boards effectively for his height. He pulled down 6.3 per contest as a junior.
4. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV
This is a bit of a scary proposition for Bennett, who may have the most upside of any player in this class. The Bobcats have been straight up awful on both ends of the court recently, but Bennett provides a huge lift.
Bennett is 6'8" and 240 pounds with freakish athleticism and the ability to put the ball on the floor. He'll be a difficult assignment for any opposing defense and provides much needed scoring for Charlotte.
5. Phoenix Suns: Otto Porter Jr., SF, Georgetown
New GM Ryan McDonough will be thrilled to have Porter sink to No. 5 because the Suns will be getting one of the least risky players in this draft. Porter can impact the game without the ball in his hands, has a high basketball IQ and defends brilliantly.
Phoenix is in need of scoring help and Porter can provide that with his versatile offensive game. Finding a pure spot-up shooter can wait even until Round 2.
6. New Orleans Pelicans: Alex Len, C, Maryland
As hinted at before, there is speculation that Len could go No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Cavaliers, which would be slightly ridiculous.
Other than a wonderful showing against Nerlens Noel in which he put up 23 points 12 rebounds and four blocks to open the season, there wasn't much more from Len in terms of consistent production.
What gives him an advantage is his soft touch—that allows him to pull up from anywhere, even on the perimeter, to shoot well. The finesse he has is also one of his drawbacks, though, because it's unclear whether Len is tough enough to succeed in the paint in the NBA.
Len showed that he could take over a game against Kentucky, but never did so with quite as much force for the remainder of his sophomore season.
Inconsistent effort can plague even the best-looking players. Since Len didn't dominate his competition more thoroughly at Maryland, he should be considered a relatively risky proposition.
7. Sacramento Kings: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
At approximately 6'6" with tremendous length, Carter-Williams creates matchup problems and is a hard-nosed defender, capable of getting his hands into passing lanes and disrupting the rhythm of half-court sets.
The former Orange star is a phenomenal facilitator, and if he develops a more consistent jumper, there's no telling how high his ceiling could go as a pro.
8. Detroit Pistons: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
This is a fall that actually works out well for the Pistons. With Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe forming a solid frontcourt for the future, Burke is a logical pick here.
As ESPN's Ford reports, the Pistons believe Brandon Knight can be more effective as a 2-guard, despite his smaller size. Thus, Burke would give Detroit two capable ball-handlers also known to create their own offense and drain shots from distance.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
It's all about shooters for Minnesota due to its status as the worst team from beyond the arc this past season, shooting a putrid 30.5 percent. McCollum is among the most dead-eye snipers of the 2013 draft entries.
Before a foot injury sidelined him for most of his final collegiate season, the Lehigh star was putting up just under 24 points per game on 49.5 percent shooting—including 51.5 percent from deep. It's a crowded backcourt already, but the Wolves shouldn't pass up a scorer like McCollum here.
10. Portland Trail Blazers: Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA
Muhammad simply did not live up to expectations for the Bruins, which caused his draft stock to fall a little bit.
The fact that Muhammad is still projected in the top 10 is a testament to his talent, and he could undergo a similar transition that Harrison Barnes did in shining for the Golden State Warriors after not quite living up to the hype at North Carolina.
There's no questioning Muhammad's supreme effort, but it is difficult to overlook the lack of versatility in his offensive game.
ESPN's Fran Fraschilla has his reservations about Muhammad's shortcomings:
What stands out is that he's almost exclusively going to his left in an effort to score, and he needs more moves to be a truly dominant force. Lack of great athleticism may also render his offense ineffective at the next level—and make him somewhat of a defensive liability.
11. Philadelphia 76ers: Cody Zeller, C/PF, Indiana
The Andrew Bynum experiment was an unmitigated failure, so the Sixers should grab another offensively skilled seven-footer in Zeller to absorb that disappointment.
Concerns linger over Zeller's lack of consistency in being tenacious enough on the inside. However, he has plenty of room to fill out his rather slender body, and with the way he can spread the floor, he should be able to play pick-and-roll very effectively with PG Jrue Holiday.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
One year of college experience and rather minimal production has Adams' status as a future pro very much in question.
Adams is completely unpolished from an offensive standpoint and doesn't look to possess the touch to improve substantially since he shot under 50 percent from the free-throw line for the Panthers. He might be saved by going to Oklahoma City, though, since he's a high-motor, physical player.
Mentors such as Kendrick Perkins should continue helping him on defense, but it seems like he could be buried rather easily on the bench and not see the court very frequently.
Other than sporting shocking size and mobility at 7'0" and 255 pounds at age 19, there aren't many elements to Adams' game that project him as a future stud. Thankfully, GM Sam Presti may have faith and take a swing in the fortunate position he's in.
13. Dallas Mavericks: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Owner Mark Cuban has publicly admitted that the team wants to trade the No. 13 overall pick to acquire multiple future assets. That may not be the case if Caldwell-Pope falls here, though.
In addition to being a phenomenal shooter, Caldwell-Pope would help out the Mavs defensively, which is necessary for Rick Carlisle's squad. Dallas finished 27th in points per game allowed in 2012-13, so Caldwell-Pope makes sense with an aging Vince Carter and O.J. Mayo hitting free agency.
14. Utah Jazz: Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga
Speaking of the open market, both of Utah's premier big men in Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are testing the waters. A point guard can be picked up at No. 21, and Olynyk provides offensive skill in the frontcourt that Derrick Favors doesn't have.
15. Milwaukee Bucks: Jamaal Franklin, SF/SG, San Diego State
The Bucks may not hold on to both free agents in Monta Ellis (unrestricted, opted out of final year of contract) and Brandon Jennings (restricted). However, they could use a defensive athletic presence on the perimeter, which is what Franklin would provide.
Although Franklin lacks a consistent outside shot, he can get to the rim and rebound very well. He could instantly plug in as a starter at the 2 in the event that Ellis chooses another NBA destination.
16. Boston Celtics: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
According to Fox Sports' latest mock, sources indicate that Schroeder has been promised a spot in the first round from the Celtics. What this means for Rajon Rondo is unclear, but the raw and intriguing Schroeder will have a wonderful mentor to learn from as his game develops.
17. Atlanta Hawks: Sergey Karasev, SF, Russia
The first of back-to-back picks for GM Danny Ferry nets the Hawks somewhat of a project player in Karasev, but he has all the skills to eventually be a phenomenal pro.
Karasev could go as high as No. 9 overall to the Timberwolves, according to Ford, so Atlanta would be getting one of the premier young talents at a relative bargain. With high intelligence, great shooting ability and passing prowess, there isn't much not to like about the rising Russian.
18. Atlanta Hawks: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
Al Horford and Plumlee could figure out who would play power forward or center, but the ex-Blue Devil would give the Hawks another necessary presence on the inside that they have lacked.
The ability to go small with Josh Smith at the 4 could be gone since he's a free agent. Plumlee adds insurance there, and if Smith does stay, the Hawks would improve significantly on the glass, where they ranked 23rd in the Association with under 41 rebounds per game.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers: Tony Snell, SF/SG, New Mexico
This is sort of a needs-based pick, but general manager Chris Grant can afford to do that. Snell is 6'7" and could convert to small forward with his seven-foot wingspan. It will be up to Mike Brown to develop him, but he also provides another scorer for the Cavs.
With Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters attracting so much attention, it should lead to a lot of opportunities for Snell to hit shots coming off screens and putting it up quickly once Irving or Waiters get inside.
20. Chicago Bulls: Rudy Gobert, C, France
Gobert is 7'2" with a 7'9" wingspan. Talk about a dream for defensive genius head coach Tom Thibodeau, who could stifle any team with the combination of Gobert and Joakim Noah down the road.
Derrick Rose's return will instantly boost the offense, and the Bulls proved this past year that they could thrive relatively well even without a go-to scorer. Thus, Chicago bolsters its front line with one of the most exciting prospects.
21. Utah Jazz: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami (FL)
Patience pays off for the Jazz, who miss out on some of the top-flight options at the position but manage to still snag the uber-athletic Larkin.
Mo Williams may not stay in Utah since he's a free agent. The very least Larkin can supply immediately is a spark and increased tempo on the offensive end. He should be fun to watch in the open court and give big men like Favors and Enes Kanter easy buckets in the paint.
22. Brooklyn Nets: Tony Mitchell, PF, North Texas
Head coach P.J. Carlesimo morphed the Nets into one of the league's best defensive squads, but the star-studded team didn't produce as well on the other end of the floor.
That's precisely how Mitchell can help at the 4 position. He is a stretch player and should vie for time along with Mirza Teletovic to play that role. Mitchell had a letdown from his spectacular freshman year, but with Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace around him, he should fit in well.
23. Indiana Pacers: Reggie Bullock, SF/SG, North Carolina
Bullock fits what the Pacers need and has wonderful size for someone who projects well to play the 2-guard position.
Wonderful shooting combined with slashing ability makes Bullock a premier offensive threat—something the Pacers glaringly lacked on the perimeter outside of Paul George, who isn't quite a go-to scoring option at this point.
24. New York Knicks: Glen Rice Jr., SF/SG, Georgia Tech
In leading the Rio Grande Vipers to the NBA Developmental League championship, Rice scored 25 points in the finals and has consequently risen up draft boards faster than arguably anyone, per Ford.
Streaky sixth man J.R. Smith is an unrestricted free agent, so bringing in another sharpshooter makes a lot of sense for New York. Rice can stroke it with the best of them in his class and replaces the scoring punch Smith brought to the table.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State
Chris Paul is an unrestricted free agent and Eric Bledsoe should be a hot name on the trade market, so it's unclear if he'll be around either. As insurance, the Clippers should bring in Canaan, who can create off the dribble and score as well as create for others.
The criticism may be that Canaan isn't a pure point guard, but that's essentially what the league is turning into. A lot of gifted point guards are scoring in bunches, and Canaan has the potential to be one.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
Nikola Pekovic is going to be in high demand as a restricted free agent, and the Timberwolves need a better presence in the paint on defense other than Greg Stiemsma.
Enter Withey, the former Jayhawk who is the best in that regard this side of Nerlens Noel. Withey is smart and is rarely out of position to contest a shot or rotate to the perfect spot. Minnesota needs more defense to be in the thick of the playoff hunt in the West.
27. Denver Nuggets: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
The Nuggets are extremely deep, and though Hardaway might not fall this far, it would be a welcome development for Denver.
Hardaway is so quick, can be lethal when shooting from the outside and would fit in perfectly to the rotation and take Corey Brewer's spot, assuming he leaves for another team. Evan Fournier figures to be the future, but a small lineup featuring either of the two playing the 3 would be intriguing.
28. San Antonio Spurs: Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
Perhaps the Spurs can upgrade a bit from Tiago Splitter, who is a solid player but not necessarily with the upside of someone like Dieng.
It seems that Dieng doesn't have much more developing to do on defense, yet he does have plenty of room to grow on the other end. Gregg Popovich is as good at developing players as anyone and could turn Dieng into a force for years to come.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Allen Crabbe, SG, California
There aren't many needs at any position for OKC, so adding another dangerous shooter isn't the worst move here.
In addition to being a solid defender, Crabbe is a big-time scorer and is slightly thicker and only an inch shorter than current sixth man Kevin Martin. Crabbe isn't going to supplant him, but he could be the heir apparent for that role down the road while also racking up solid minutes before then.
30. Phoenix Suns: Lucas Nogueira, C, Brazil
The shot-blocking presence that Noguiera could provide for Phoenix—if not immediately—is worth taking this late first-round flier. Plus, Noguiera is a seven-footer who's only 220 pounds and figures to get stronger. It's scary to think how intimidating he could be inside with more muscle.
