US Open Golf 2013: Updated Betting Tips for Day 4 Action Following Day 3 Results

Phil Mickelson is nurturing a one-shot lead at the 2013 U.S. Open, the only player on the course at Merion Golf Club with a negative score through three rounds.

It's a story, at least through three rounds, that rings all too familiar for Lefty—a five-time U.S. Open runner-up with zero wins to supplement.

He'll be the favorite heading into Sunday, but because his lead is so thin and his history so bum, that might not necessarily make him the smartest wager.

Let's assess Mickelson's stock and look at some other possible bets.

*All odds courtesy of Bovada*

The Favorite: Phil Mickelson +200

Mickelson is the betting favorite going into Round 4, which is no surprise at all. What's interesting here is the line.

Bovada gives Mickelson 2-1 odds at winning his first U.S. Open. That seems like a smart line for the house—squares love to bet on the favorite, especially when that favorite is a fan...well, favorite—but not particularly fair to the bettor.

Think of it this way: Mickelson's odds imply, technically, that if they played out Round 4 twice, Mickelson would win one time. Doesn't seem crazy in such a small sample. But once you extrapolate that number—i.e., if they played the round 100 times, Mickelson would win 50—it starts to sound a little absurd.

Mickelson has never won the U.S. Open. He's finished in second five times, but betting tickets clearly read: MUST WIN TO PAY. Ricky Bobby's guiding principle doesn't translate in every case, but in the case of golf betting, it's righter than rain.

Don't get suckered by the favorite bet. Especially with Phil only leading by one. You can find better odds elsewhere.

The Best Bet: Jason Day +1200

Day doesn't get a fraction of the respect he deserves. His game isn't sexy and he doesn't appeal to sponsors. But time and time again, when you look up at the leaderboard in Round 4, there's his name, inconspicuous, sitting well within distance to strike.

Still only 25 years old (I thought he looked 35, too), Day is only now rounding into form—both mentally and physically. With three major top 10s now behind him, including second-place finishes at both the Masters and the U.S. Open, Day now knows fully how to handle himself in a round of this magnitude.

He's three shots off the lead after shooting a 68 on Saturday, the second-best score of the round (behind just Rickie Fowler who, at 33-1, is also an OK bet), quietly sneaking into contention as he all-so-frequently does.

Most impressive part of Day's round? Five birdies. On a day where players were thrilled to push even, Day made under par on 28 percent of his holes. If he can cut out a bogey or two Sunday, Day might be in position to finally finish above second.

The Long Shot: Michael Kim +20000

Trust me, I get it.

I get that he's a gangly 19-year-old, I get that he actually looks like a 15-year-old, and I get that a gangly 19-year-old who looks like a 15-year-old shouldn't be able to handle the enormity of this moment.

But just because he shouldn't doesn't mean he can't.

Michael Kim is not a fluke, people. He won the Jack Nicklaus Award as college golf's top golfer this season—he was just a sophomore, by the way—and is head-and-shoulders above the rest of his fellow amateurs at Merion. He isn't as talented as his competition, but he's talented enough to be this close to them, which means he's certainly talented enough to play one more round of their caliber.

We've seen older golfers shy away from smaller moments. Much older golfers. Maybe there's something to Michael Kim's youth? Maybe he owes his success in this tournament, in part, to the blinders of his naivete? Maybe a wiser man would grasp the magnitude of this tournament and choke?

I don't know the answers to those questions and neither do you. All I know is this: Michael Kim is listed at 200-1 despite being five shots off the lead. Meanwhile, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson, Nicolas Colsaerts, Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano and John Senden—all of whom are (a) six shots off the lead, and (b) zero-time major champions—are listed as heavier favorites.

I'll take the young guy in a heartbeat. At the very least he'll be fun!