Reevaluating the San Francisco Giants' Odds of Winning the NL West

The San Francisco Giants currently stand with a record of 33-30, two games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants have largely been treading water over the last several weeks and the best news is that no other NL West team has jumped out to a big lead.

The Giants' biggest problems have occurred on the road where they have won only 12 of 31 games.

Currently in the middle of a nine-game road trip, the Giants will play 15 of their next 22 games away from the friendly confines of AT&T Park. If the Giants hope to stay close to the lead in the division, they must play better on the road.

Let's take a closer look at each team in the division and assess its chances of winning the NL West.

All stats are courtesy of mlb.com.

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have the lowest payroll of any team in the NL West. They began the season at just over $68 million. The Padres are a very young team, and their talent level is below the other teams in the division.

Manager Bud Black has the Padres playing competitive baseball, and they stand 31-34, five games behind the Diamondbacks. 

San Diego has received good production from Everth Cabrera, Jedd Gyorko, Yonder Alonso and Chris Denorfia. The starting pitching is led by Jason Marquis, Andrew Cashner and Eric Stults. All have ERA's below 3.60.

The problem in San Diego is that many of the players the Padres had been counting on have not come through. Chase Headley, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard have all been subpar.

In addition, budding star catcher Yasmani Grandal was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for PEDs in the offseason.

Probability of San Diego winning the NL West: 1%. 

Salary data courtesy of baseballprospectus.com.

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies are the surprise team in the NL West with a record of 35-30, in second place in the NL West.

Offensively, the Rockies can play with any team in the league. The key has been the healthy return of Troy Tulowitzki, following the 2012 season when he played only 47 games.

Tulowitzki has teamed with Carlos Gonzalez to combine for 32 home runs and 102 RBI. Michael Cuddyer, Dexter Fowler and Wilin Rosario have each hit 10 home runs and the trio have combined for 94 RBI.

The Rockies have received better pitching than expected. Jorge De La Rosa leads the staff with seven victories and a 3.38 ERA, which is outstanding when you consider he pitches half of his games in Colorado.

Closer Rafael Betancourt is on the 15-day DL, but will likely be out for a month, due to a groin injury. Young flame-thrower Rex Brothers has stepped into the closer role and has done a good job.

The Rockies' offense is very explosive, but ultimately, they do not have enough quality pitching to stay in the race over the long haul.  

Probability of Colorado winning the NL West: 5%

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have, by far, the highest payroll in the National League, at over $216 million. Thus far, that has not been money well spent. The Dodgers are 28-36, seven-and-a-half games behind Arizona.

Currently last in the NL West, you had better not count the Dodgers out just yet. Yasiel Puig has given this team a renewed vigor, and after only nine games, he has captured the hearts of Dodger fans.

The Dodgers have suffered several injuries that have caused star players to miss time. Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford all have spent time on the DL.

In addition, the Dodgers' pitchers have also struggled to stay healthy. At one time or another, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Zack Greinke have had DL stints.

Expect the Dodgers to make a run for the division title. They are close to returning their injured offensive players and with the renewed excitement in Los Angeles because of Puig, they have momentum not seen in LA for several years.

GM Ned Colletti has an open checkbook, so we can also expect him to be making some moves before the trade deadline. One deal could involve outfielder Andre Ethier in a deal for a starting pitcher or third baseman.

The emergence of Puig has taken Los Angeles by storm. He is currently hitting .471, with four home runs and 10 RBI, in only 34 at-bats. The Dodgers can ride this momentum and get right back in the race.

One of the most interesting decisions is who will close out games for the Dodgers. Brandon League has struggled and has lost his job, for now. Kenley Jansen will take over. If Jansen does well, that will further strengthen the Dodgers' chances.

Dodger Manager Don Mattingly is on the hot seat. If LA falters, it will likely cost Mattingly his job. 

Probability that Los Angeles will win the NL West: 15%.

All stats are courtesy of mlb.com.

Salary data courtesy of baseballprospectus.com. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks made a major move in the offseason when they traded mercurial outfielder Justin Upton to the Atlanta Braves for Martin Prado. Upton had worn out his welcome in Arizona, and the move was a case of addition by subtraction.

The Diamondbacks have moved forward, their team chemistry is good, and the talent is very solid. Paul Goldschmidt leads the offense with a batting average of .315, with 15 home runs and 59 RBI. Goldschmidt has an OBP of .395 and an outstanding OPS of .975.

Goldschmidt is playing at an MVP level. The Diamondbacks have also received strong contributions from Gerardo Parra, Didi Gregorius, Eric Chavez, Cody Ross, Jason Kubel, AJ Pollock and Prado.

The Diamondbacks have also received a surprisingly strong performance from Patrick Corbin, who is 9-0 on the year. Heath Bell has also stepped into the closer role very effectively after J.J. Putz was injured.

The Diamondbacks have a good young team, but in the end, their pitching will make the difference. Arizona will need stronger performances from Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley and Trevor Cahill in order to stay atop the division.

Probability that Arizona will win the NL West: 39%.

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants are the reigning World Series champions and have won two titles in the past three years. The Giants are in the hunt for the NL West crown again in 2013, but they must play better than they have.

Three major problems have caused the Giants to be inconsistent. The most glaring issue has been the starting pitching. The Giants began the year thinking their rotation of Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong was one of the best in the league.

But the starters have all struggled at some time or another this season. If the Giants are to make a run for the division title, it is imperative for their starting rotation to start performing much better.

It appears as though the pitchers are worn down from the excess strain placed on them with last year's postseason run.

Injuries have also plagued the Giants. Key players such as Pablo Sandoval, Angel Pagan, Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Affeldt have all spent time on the DL. Currently, Sandoval, Pagan and Vogelsong are out.

Second baseman Marco Scutaro was hit on the little finger in the Giants' first game against the Pirates on Tuesday. Fortunately, the finger was not broken, but Scutaro is likely to miss a few games.

With these injuries, it will be up to role players Joaquin Arias, Tony Abreu, Andres Torres and Chad Gaudin to step up and deliver. The Giants cannot afford more injuries to an already depleted roster.

Hunter Pence has played well and not missed a game. The Giants are also asking a lot of Buster Posey. He is catching virtually every day and must still lead the offense. Currently, Posey is hitting .297, with eight home runs and 35 RBi. 

The Giants have an excellent manager in Bruce Bochy, and he will need to work his magic to keep San Francisco in the hunt as they battle injuries.  

Probability of San Francisco winning the NL West: 40%.