State of Origin 2013 Game 2: Breaking Down New South Wales' Chances for a Sweep

For the first time since 2008, the New South Wales Blues captured the first game of the State of Origin series from the Queensland Maroons with a tremendous 14-6 performance on Wednesday.

The opening-game win puts the Blues in excellent position to win the series for the first time in eight years. Their last series victory came in 2005 with a 2-1 series win over the Maroons.

New South Wales needs just one win in the next two matches, but that won’t be an easy task. In the previous seven years, the Blues captured just six total wins, allowing Queensland to extend the longest winning streak of the 34-year series.

With the series considered to be the fiercest rivalry in Australian sports, it was no surprise that things came to blows in Game 1.

Just before the half, New South Wales captain Paul Gallen—on the heels of taking a 14-0 lead no less—landed a one-two combination on the chin of Maroons prop Nate Myles after a short shoving match. Gallen got things rolling after catching Myles with an arm on a tackle attempt, and it would be the Blues captain who would finish the tussle.

Gallen wasn’t sent off for the altercation, but his short boxing foray sparked the Maroons enough to tally six points in their column in the second half. The comeback bid came up short, but New South Wales easily could have seen the game slip away had it not mounted a strong effort in the first 40 minutes.

It was an impressive effort from the Blues, which now have three weeks to settle in for a Game 2 showdown—a match Queensland will no doubt be better prepared for.

Where: Suncorp Stadium; Milton, Queensland, Australia

When: Wednesday, June 26, at 6 a.m. ET

Series: 1-0 New South Wales

 

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Blues jump out to such a big lead early in the second tilt. They played nearly perfect rugby for the entire first frame, and as the Maroons showed in the second 40 minutes, it takes a complete effort to shut out the seven-time defending champs.

Still, New South Wales’ dominating effort in the first 40 can’t be overlooked. It’s easy to designate the first-half performance as a fluke considering the Blues’ recent struggles in the series, but it was a full team effort and exactly what the Blues need in the second game.

Game 2 Outlook

The Blues employed a safe, conservative style in Game 1 that limited mistakes and wore down the Maroons in every phase. That game plan worked in the first half, but it broke down in the second 40. Errors gave Queensland the opening it needed to create a surge and put some points on the board.

To combat NSW's strategy in the second game, the Maroons have to remain tough and focus on capitalizing on mistakes. New South Wales won’t have a reason to change things up in the second contest, and the Maroons should expect more of the same conservative approach.

But there’s something to be said for aggressiveness and taking chances.

The Maroons were punched in the mouth (both literally and figuratively) in the first half and didn’t seem prepared for the Blues' physicality. It was perhaps an eye-opening 40 minutes, however, and Queensland finished the match with a much stronger effort. If Queensland shows up prepared for more of the same in Game 2, expect a much tighter affair with a lot more energy from both sides.

The Blues have earned a big opportunity to turn the tables on Queensland in the rivalry series, but overconfidence can lead to errors. New South Wales can’t afford to enter the contest feeling like it has already won.

Prediction: Queensland evens the series at 1-1 with a 17-16 victory in Game 2.