My Two Cents: Manny Pacquiao vs. Ricky Hatton

Since this Saturday's "Superfight" between Manny Pacquiao and Ricky Hatton was announced earlier in January, much has been written about the possible outcome of the meeting.

Currently, Manny Pacquiao is the tout's favourite, although Hatton is not as much of an underdog as he'd have us believe. Most, however, are in agreement that the fight will not go the distance.

But bouts such as this create the kind of excitement they do precisely because the outcome is never a given. Here, the possibilities outnumber the probabilities in what is likely to be a fascinating meeting of styles.

As the eloquent Amir Khan recently put it: "It's going to be a 50-50 fight."

Word of this bout had emerged before Hatton trounced Paulie Malignaggi on Nov. 22, 2008, a full two weeks before Pacquiao comprehensively launched Oscar De La Hoya into retirement.

This has given the boxing voyeur ample time to study old footage, digest rumours, discuss and digress upon bounteous blogs, and, in the spirit of that peculiar attribute of the aficionado, calculate the various tactical permutations of "The Fight."

The result of my own months of work?

Manny Pacquiao will beat Ricky Hatton by TKO in Rounds 8-9.

My instincts tell me otherwise: both could go the distance in a bloody, bruising battle (in which, I believe, Pacquiao will still emerge victorious), or Hatton could simply deliver on his word and pressurize the smaller man into submission.

In fact, when I let my imagination ramble the latter is frequently the outcome. Hatton's style does, if nothing else, bestir the imagination.

That said, a thorough scrutiny of Hatton's arsenal unearths more questions than it does answers. The fact is, when I place Pacquiao and Hatton "on paper," Pacquiao emerges the victor 90 percent of the time.

This is because I feel I know what to expect from Pacquiao. He will use his speed and footwork to disrupt Hatton's rhythm, frustrating and gradually dismantling the Englishman in a stoppage due either to exhaustion or cuts.

Of course, the central question hanging over Pacquiao is whether or not he can face a "naturally" larger opponent in Hatton.

And I believe he can precisely because the answers to the questions surrounding Hatton are all the more uncertain.

Are Weight and Size Really the Big Issues?

Although Pacquiao began his career at 106 pounds, his speed and power have remained incremental with his natural rise in weight. More significantly, even if he was never really tested against De La Hoya, he appeared readily comfortable at the welterweight limit.

In April, Roach insisted, "By fight time, Ricky's going to be heavier than Manny, but that doesn't make you stronger. Manny's really developed into this weight and I feel 140 is now the best weight for him."

It is also important to note that while Hatton commands a 2 cm height advantage over Pacquiao, he is outreached by the Filipino in arm length by 5 cm.

Therefore, the so-called size advantage Hatton holds is less to do with his bulk and more to do with his style. If he can draw Pacquiao into his type of fight (attack, grip, attack) he can dominate the match. But I do not see a controlled Pacquiao being lured into a brawl that easily.

Can Hatton Handle a Southpaw?

Hatton's record against southpaws is poor: although he has beaten all four of his southpaw opponents, he has never done so in a convincing way.

The prime example of this is Luis Collazo. Regardless of Hatton's early knockdown, most scored the bout in favour of Collazo.

Indeed, despite his strong-arm tactics, Hatton visibly struggled as the fight unfolded, as the southpaw quickly adjusted to the Briton and upset his rhythm with well placed jabs and hooks.

Under the tutelage of Freddie Roach, Pacquiao will use this to his advantage and will be seeking to set the pace from the opening bell.

To call again on the kid Khan: "I think it's going to be all about who settles down into the fight the quickest."

Has Floyd Mayweather Sr. Enhanced Hatton?

Much has been made of the trainers standing behind Pacquiao and Hatton in this bout.

But while few can successfully argue contra Roach's influence over Pacquiao, to my mind the Mayweather influence has yet to see real fruition in Hatton.

More mobile head movement and greater control aside, the lauded jab used by Hatton against Paulie Malignaggi last year was less than convincing.

Watch this fight carefully and you will note that Hatton leaps forward with his jab and hook, a manoeuvre the unresponsive Malignaggi failed to capitalise upon but which should play right into the sharper hands of Pacquiao (expect a right uppercut to set the tone early on).

There is also the broader question of acquired skills: Has Mayweather really revived the inert boxer in Hatton?

Hatton is certainly a smarter boxer than most give him credit for, and his pressure-fighting style more multifarious, but he has never displayed the breadth of skills Pacquiao possesses even in his most impressive victories.

Ultimately, while I believe the skills Hatton has acquired under Mayweather may suffice before a middling opponent such as Malignaggi, the presence of a prepared and peak Pacquiao will quickly unravel this new-found confidence.

How Can Hatton Defeat Pacquiao?

Pacquiao is not without his flaws.

Hatton will be looking to exploit his defensively high hands by working the body, a tactic he has executed with particular success in the past.

He will also seek to disrupt Pacquiao's oblique footwork and sometimes precarious balance by pushing the fight on the inside.

Nevertheless, I do believe Pacquiao can and will offset Hatton's offensives by applying pressure early on using angles, hand speed and lateral movement.

I think this will cause Hatton to revert to form by the fourth or fifth round, allowing Pacquiao to unload with greater accuracy, particularly around the eyes.

To be sure, Hatton will be Pacquiao's toughest challenge to date, unbeaten as he is at 140 pounds. But as Mohammed Ali once remarked, "Keep punching at a man's head, and it mixes his mind."

On Saturday night, expect Pacquiao to mix Hatton's mind, muddle his game plan and walk away with a new title in a new weight limit.

Please note: I am not Ricky Hatton's “countryman.” I am Irish; he is English/British. The Republic of Ireland is an independent country. Hatton and I are, however, citizens of the European community.