Memorial Tournament 2013: Which Tiger Woods Will Show Up at the U.S. Open?

In the months leading up to the Memorial Tournament, Tiger Woods was by far the most dominant golfer on the planet. During the four days of Jack Nicklaus’ annual event, however, he looked like one of the worst professionals at Muirfield Village. 

The pressing question now is which Tiger will show up at Merion Golf Club for the 2013 U.S. Open a little less than two weeks from now. 

Will it be the sure-putting, straight-driving, supremely confident Woods who has already won four times this year, or will it be the Tiger who absolutely collapsed in almost every phase of the game this weekend on a golf course on which he had previously won five times?

The answer to that question is critical to whether Tiger can end his five-year major championship drought and renew his chase of Nicklaus’ career major championship record of 18 majors at the difficult and challenging Merion layout.

Before the past four days at Muirfield Village, Tiger was clearly the favorite to win the U.S. Open. Not only had he won four times this year, but he did so in significant events such as the Players Championship, Bay Hill Invitational and Cadillac Championship.

Yet after a stunningly ugly performance at Muirfield, which included a third-round 79—yes a 79—Tiger is anything but an odds-on favorite to win his 15th major on Father’s Day two weeks from now. The 79 on Saturday, which included the worst nine-hole performance ever for Woods, was bookended by a 74 on Friday and a 72 on Sunday, leaving Woods in a tie for 65th among only 73 players that made the cut.

Given that performance, the primary question following Woods out of Dublin, Ohio and on to Ardmore, Pa. is whether or not he can find the fairway with his driver on any consistent basis. At the Memorial, the answer was, by and large, no. At Merion, it had better be yes if Woods is going to contend for his fourth career U.S. Open title.

For much of this year, Tiger has avoided his driver in key situations, choosing accuracy over distance by playing his three-wood, five-wood or even sometimes an iron on challenging courses such as TPC Sawgrass, Doral and Bay Hill.

On the season, Tiger ranks 79th in driving accuracy but only 35th in driving distance, arguably a direct result of his tendency to choose the safer route to find fairways, which is costing him yardage off the tee.

Conventional wisdom, however, contends that Tiger will have to use his driver more than three or four times a round to score well at Merion. Whether or not he can find the fairway on a regular basis with the big club is the key question as to whether "top of the leaderboard" Tiger shows up over the weekend at Merion or that disturbing alter ego of him that performed this week at Muirfield.

The bad Tiger we witnessed at Muirfield this weekend wasn't any better on the greens than he was off the tee. When Woods has won this year, he has been an absolute wizard with the putter. By contrast, Tiger's putting this weekend was just one of the poor parts of his overall short game that made him look far more "amateur" than historic professional.

A smooth-putting Tiger is an absolute must at Merion, especially if Woods continues hitting three- and five-woods off the tee in lieu of tempting driver disaster too many times. Longer approach shots will typically translate into longer birdie efforts, which is okay if the Tiger from Doral and Bay Hill shows up at Merion.

If the Tiger from this weekend, who struggled with speed and reads, shows up, then it’s pretty much a sure bet his major championship drought will continue on to an overseas date to the British Open.

That said, if Woods rediscovers that putting mojo from March and April, it takes the pressure off his tee-to-green game and settles him right back into the comfortable spot of U.S. Open favorite very quickly.

The final factor for Woods heading into the U.S. Open is confidence, and one might think that would be significantly scarred after posting his worst 72-hole performance since 2010 at Muirfield Village this week.

Ahh, but not so fast. Not only is Woods among the most supremely confident athletes of his generation, but he also might end up being better served by a poor performance heading into the U.S. Open rather than the alternative.

Consider this: Four times since the first major of 2012, a span of five events, Woods entered the major fresh off a victory in his previous start. Given that he hasn't won a major since 2008, it goes without saying that those positive performances didn't translate to victory his next time out.

In both 2012 and 2013, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational before falling short at Augusta National both times. Last year, Tiger captured the Memorial but failed to contend at the U.S. Open over the weekend. Likewise, Woods won the AT&T Invitational at Congressional last July but again failed at the British Open.

So maybe, just maybe, a near-career-worst performance at the Memorial this weekend will ease some of the expectations and pressure on Tiger and allow him to walk onto Merion on June 13 with some ease. Considering he hasn't won a major in five years and has contended in only a handful of tournaments during that stretch, any real or imagined karma flip couldn't hurt.

That said, there’s no doubt that the state of Tiger’s game, rather than invisible cosmic forces, is going to determine his ultimate outcome at Merion.

If the pre-Memorial Tiger Woods shows up, it’s a good bet the difference in the majors tally between him and Jack Nicklaus will be trimmed. If this past weekend’s version of him tees it up at Merion, all bets are off.

The ultimate answer to this interesting question is now less than 14 days away.