UFC 160 Preview: Gray Maynard vs. T.J. Grant Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Gray Maynard is only one fight removed from back-to-back title fights with Frankie Edgar, but "The Bully" finds himself right back in championship contention ahead of his UFC 160 bout with T.J. Grant.

Though his most recent fight with Clay Guida was a snoozer, Maynard has remained one of the top 155-pound fighters in the world due to his competitive bouts with Edgar in 2011. Since Edgar is now competing in the featherweight division, Maynard is a fresh contender for current lightweight champion Benson Henderson.

Grant has climbed his way into a fight of this magnitude by winning four straight bouts. In his most recent outing, Grant steamrolled Matt Wiman with elbows and finished his opponent in the first round.

Dana White, UFC president, has announced that a title shot will be on the line in this clash between Maynard and Grant. With that in mind, let's take a look at which fighter is more likely to earn a meeting with Henderson.   

Striking

Stand-up Striking

Gray Maynard earned some respect in the striking department by knocking down Frankie Edgar in back-to-back fights.

However, Maynard's striking is still seriously lacking in accuracy. Over the course of his UFC career, Maynard has only landed 31 percent of his attempted strikes. It's not like this is an area he is showing improvement in either, as Maynard scored on only 23 percent of his strikes thrown at Clay Guida.

Grant, meanwhile, has landed 54 percent of his attempted strikes in UFC bouts. And that's not a number inflated by the fact that Grant has only recently broken into the upper-echelon of the lightweight class. Grant topped his average striking accuracy in his fights with fringe contenders Matt Wiman and Evan Dunham.

Advantage: Grant

Ground Striking

It's not likely Grant is planning to take this fight to the ground. Against his toughest lightweight competition in Wiman and Dunham, Grant has gotten the job done without scoring any takedowns. So, any ground striking from Grant in this fight would likely be done from the bottom, which would not be a good sign for the Canadian.  

Maynard has not finished any UFC opponents with ground-and-pound. He's also not the most active fighter when on top. In all his Octagon appearances, Maynard has only landed more than 50 significant strikes on one occasion, and that came in a five-round fight with Edgar.

That said, Maynard punches often enough to avoid being stood up, and that will be important in this matchup with Grant.

Advantage: Maynard

Power and Durability

After his brutal stoppage of Wiman, short-term memory leads one to want to give Grant a significant edge over Maynard when it comes to knockout power.

Yet, Grant has only scored one more UFC knockout win than Maynard, who had two practically taken away from him by Frankie Edgar's unrivaled determination.

Where Grant does benefit from a slugfest is that he's never been stopped with strikes. Maynard has a solid chin of his own, but he was finished by Edgar, who is hardly known for having one-punch knockout ability.

Advantage: Grant

Overall Striking Advantage: Grant 

Grappling

Takedowns and Takedown Defense

Gray Maynard hasn't had much success with his wrestling over recent appearances, but this matchup with T.J. Grant gives him a good chance to get back to the aspect of his game that took him to the top of the lightweight class. 

Grant has done a poor job of defending takedowns inside the Octagon, allowing opponents to take him to the ground on 63 percent of their attempts. If Evan Dunham, Ricardo Almeida and Ryo Chonan can take Grant down multiple times in one fight, then three-time All-American wrestler Maynard should be able to do so.

As far as the potential for Grant taking Maynard down goes, it would be somewhat shocking. Stopping 86 percent of takedown attempts on him, Maynard has only been taken down by Frankie Edgar over the past five years.

Advantage: Maynard

Control and Escapability

Maynard earned his first UFC title shot by controlling Kenny Florian on the ground for the better part of three rounds. While he hasn't been dominant on the ground recently, Maynard got to the top with his wrestling and will undoubtedly look to use it on Saturday.

Against Dunham, Grant was taken down in the closing moments of each round, giving him little time to show improvement in his escapes. When he fought Ricardo Almeida, Grant was able to use the fence to stand multiple times, but he was unable to create separation and found himself getting dumped back to the canvas every time he escaped.

While Grant may be able to work to his feet against Maynard, he's going to have similar problems gaining enough distance to strike. If he comes in with a wrestling game plan, Maynard will stick to Grant like glue every chance he gets. 

Advantage: Maynard

Submissions and Submission Defense

None of Maynard's 12 UFC bouts have ended in a submission. While he's not likely to threaten with submissions of his own in this matchup, Maynard has survived on the ground with Florian, Jim Miller and many others.

And so he should against Grant.

Grant does have a submission win over a high-level wrestler in Shane Roller. However, Roller is a fighter who was forced to tap in three of his seven career losses. Prior to joining the UFC roster, Grant picked up a dozen submission victories, though almost all of them came against low-level competition.

Advantage: Push

Overall Grappling Advantage: Maynard 

Intangibles

Experience

T.J. Grant may have more fights under his belt than Gray Maynard, but "The Bully" has more Octagon appearances and has fought in much bigger fights.

Although Grant has had some important fights recently, this bout with Maynard will mark his first appearance on a UFC main card. Maynard, on the other hand, has almost always competed on the main card of the UFC events he's competed in and has two lightweight title fights under his belt.

If either fighter is going to crack under the pressure of this fight, it will be Grant.

Advantage: Maynard

Athleticism

Maynard is considered a fairly large lightweight, but he stands two inches shorter than his opponent and will be facing a slight reach disadvantage against Grant, who used to compete in the welterweight class. That reach disparity could be important for Grant in keeping distance from Maynard and his takedowns.

However, Maynard likely won't be at a speed disadvantage like he has been in recent fights. Maynard also negates any strength advantage Grant might have in the clinch by being the much more proven grappler as an All-American wrestler.

Advantage: Push

Conditioning

Maynard's conditioning came into question following his losses to Frankie Edgar. However, those defeats were more a product of Edgar's incredible gas tank than Maynard completely fading away.

Still, Grant could overwhelm Maynard with his pace in the later rounds. Against Evan Dunham, Grant threw a whopping 309 strikes in three rounds. Maynard didn't attempt nearly that many in his five-round contest against Edgar.

Advantage: Grant

Overall Intangibles Advantage: Push 

Prediction

It's almost inevitable that Gray Maynard takes T.J. Grant down whenever he wants. Grant has just shown too many holes in his takedown defense against lesser wrestlers than Maynard.

The real question is whether or not Grant can use his submissions to make Maynard pay for going to the ground. With 13 career submission wins, it's hardly out of the question, but there's not substantial evidence to show that it's likely Grant would force Maynard to tap.

Maynard has never been submitted despite already facing some of the best grapplers the lightweight division has to offer. Grant's submission numbers look great, but none of them have come against an elite opponent like Maynard.

Grant might be able to put Maynard in some scary spots, but "The Bully" is likely to play this one safe and grind out a decision victory with a title shot on the line.

Prediction 

Maynard defeats Grant by decision. 

Statistics via FightMetric.com.