Ted Sevransky's Early Season Baseball Betting Strategies

I’ve gotten off to a ridiculously hot start this baseball season, 27-8 with my first 35 guaranteed selections, up more than 60 units of profit in the first three weeks of the campaign. I’ve gotten off to hot starts in baseball before, but this season opening streak has been truly special, with multiple extended winning streaks in April action.

I don’t have any magic formula to explain my early season baseball success. I’m not doing anything differently than I was last year or in previous seasons. I’m still concentrating on three basic types of wagers. MLB totals have always been my bread and butter, the single easiest aspect of baseball betting to beat long term, in my mind. Those totals are 11-2 to open up the season.

I’ve done well picking short favorites in the last few years, and April 2009 has been no exception. The wiseguy-laden betting marketplace has a tendency to overvalue the short underdogs on the card. These sharp bettors look at the plus price in a game they consider to be a virtual pick ‘em and jump on the underdog. I’ve found good reasons for the favorites to be favored in many of these games, consistently finding value with some of the short favorites on the card. I’m 8-4 supporting favorites of -140 or less, the vast majority of those games in the -110 to -120 range.

The third type of wager that I’ve been able to cash with on a consistent basis in early season baseball is the short underdog. I’ve bet 10 underdogs in April baseball and cashed eight out of those 10 tickets, with prices as high as +160. Most of my underdog bets have come against teams and pitchers that I consider to be overpriced early in the season.

I cashed repeatedly betting against the L.A. Angels as a favorite. I’ve gone against the Phillies' Cole Hamels, the Indians' Fausto Carmona, and the Mets' John Maine as favorites, as they have struggled here in April. And I’ve been able to back some improving teams at short underdog prices, cashing tickets with the Cardinals, Twins, Rangers, Mariners, and Royals.

None of this is rocket science. Perhaps my single greatest strength this year betting April baseball has been my ability to focus on the teams and pitchers that I’ve been able to read well. I’m not trying to beat every game on the board, or to have a good read on every pitcher and every bullpen in the league on a nightly basis.

When I sit down every evening to do my preliminary baseball work, I’m narrowing down my card quickly and easily. I take a quick five- or 10-minute look at every game, then concentrate on the matchups that stand out to me. By eliminating my lesser opinions quickly, it allows me more time and energy to seriously focus on the games that I’m looking to get involved with a wager.

I haven’t made a bet in a Reds, Marlins, Braves, or Nationals game yet this season, and I’ve only made one bet all year in games involving the White Sox, Brewers, and Mets. Having success in baseball does not require a great read on every team or every pitcher. By finding and focusing on the teams and pitchers that are doing what I expect them to do on a nightly basis, I’ve been cashing repeatedly for myself and my clients.

Article courtesy of Ted Sevransky, an award-winning professional baseball betting expert featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting on baseball this season, be sure to visit Touthouse.com for all of Ted’s expert baseball betting picks