Oakland Athletics May Lack Karma in 2009

Making the playoffs is always a dicey proposition. Try telling that to well-financed teams like the Yankees, Mets, or the Red Sox. It's doubly hard for a low budget team like Billy Beane's A's, who seldom have the money to hire free agents, and who have their best players taken away from them in free agency.

Nevertheless, they are playoff contenders in many years. But 2009 doesn't look to be one of them.

Once again, the A's have above average pitching. Apart from relatively-seasoned Dallas Braden, the rotation isn't so great, but the bullpen more than makes up for it.

The question mark this year, as in most years in the recent past (basically since Rickey Henderson left in the late 1990s), has been hitting. The A's have decent hitters in Travis Buck, Jack Cust, and, yes, Kurt Suzuki, whose defensive miscues are all the more painful, because they detract so much from what little offensive effort the A's are putting up (of which he is the largest part).

Repair efforts elsewhere haven't worked. Last year, Eric Chavez, a former star, was a serviceable, if injury "hobbled," player. This year, only the latter applies. Everyone knew that Jason Giambi was past his prime, but his performance in 2008 approximated those of the late 1990s, during his ASCENT. Not so, Giambi's 2009 showing (so far, at least).

Mark Ellis was re-signed to $11 million over two years, which basically pays only for his superb defensive performance, and which would be a bargain if his offense was "league average" (for a middle infielder, whose defensive importance holds him to a lower offensive standard). But Ellis' bat this year makes his contract look "full price."

Worse, Beane hasn't had quite as hot a hand as a trader as usual. Late in 2007, he traded Marco Scutaro to the Blue Jays, (where he is having a banner year in 2009) for prospects. Toronto's J.P. Ricciardi is a "Moneyball" disciple of Beane's, which is to say that he might be the one person Beane can't out trade. (Ben Graham, a master investor, couldn't out trade his star pupil, the better-known Warren Buffett.)

Beane also traded Nick Swisher to the White Sox for three more prospects, including Ryan Sweeney and Gio Gonzalez, which looks like a mistake in hindsight. The last deal—Greg Smith, Huston Street, and Matt Murton to the Rockies for Matt Holliday—could be the "trade from hell" for both sides: Holliday has turned cold in a pitcher's park, and we're waiting to see if Smith also "bombs" in his new location, a hitter's park, as Huston Street is already doing.

So, how did Beane "do it" in a year like 2002, when the priority was to "replace Giambi?" For about a million dollars, he hired Scott Hatteberg, an injured, "retreaded" catcher, who replaced about one-third of Giambi's "excess production" (over the league average player). Other deals (for John Mabry and Ray Durham, among others) replaced about one third, with the remaining third coming from banner years by existing players, Chavez and then-shortstop Miguel Tejada. Unfortunately, Chavez and Giambi are not "replacing" their old selves this year, and the one person who is coming close to the A's 2002 production levels, Scutaro, is playing for someone else.