Kentucky Derby Winner: Why Orb Will End Triple Crown Drought

It has been 35 years since there has been a Triple Crown winner. Orb will put an end to that drought this year.

Since Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 1978, hundreds of horses have tried to replicate the feat. There have even been 12 horses able to win the first two legs before falling in the final race.

For the following reasons, however, Orb has the ability to win the next two races after finishing first at the Kentucky Derby. 

Experience

The first thing you look at in regards to racing is the horse's record. It is important that the contender not only has shown an ability to win races, but can do it consistently.

Heading into the Derby, Verrazano was one of the favorites due to his undefeated record. Unfortunately, he only competed in four races and had a terrible showing at the Kentucky Derby.

Conversely, Orb was only mediocre as a two-year-old horse before turning the corner over the past year. He has now won five races in a row and seems to be getting better as he goes along.

More importantly, he is stronger on longer courses thanks to his ability to come on strong late in races. This will especially come in handy on the 1.5-mile course at Belmont.

In addition, it is not just the horse that has a strong amount of experience. Trainer Shug McGaughey is in the Hall of Fame thanks to his impressive resume of victories over a long career in the sport. He has his horse prepared to do very well in the coming weeks.

Lack of Competition

This year's Kentucky Derby was wide open due to a lack of one big-time contender. Orb was the favorite with final odds of 5.4-1, which is a much higher payout than other favorites to win the race in the past.

Smarty Jones and Big Brown—two horses that won two-thirds of the Triple Crown—each came into Churchill Downs with a payout of less than 5-1.

Plus, some of the other top contenders at this year's Kentucky Derby completely failed to live up to expectations. Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents all finished 14th or worse. The only highly-rated horse that did well was Revolutionary, who was helped a lot by the experience of Calvin Borel. 

With many of these talented horses skipping the Preakness, Orb should have an easy time at Pimlico.

The challenge will be a little tougher at Belmont, but there are still not many challengers out there that will make things difficult for the thoroughbred. It seems Orb is lucky to be taking part in a down year.

Ability to Overcome Adversity

It is easy to win a race or two when everything goes according to plan. Orb showed that he can win without luck.

The first issue with the Kentucky Derby was the rain. Wet conditions usually favor underdogs, as the horses with more pure speed are neutralized by the mud. Although Orb had never competed in these conditions before, it did extremely well at overcoming the wet course. 

However, a bigger problem was the post. The No. 16 spot was by far the furthest the horse had started in his career, and it usually leads to problems for contenders trying to get into good position early.

Unsurprisingly, jockey Joel Rosario was unable to get near the front of the pack from the start and sat near last place for the first part of the race. The good news is that Orb had plenty left in the tank for the final stretch.

As we eventually saw, Rosario made a great wide move toward the end of the race to catch the leaders and pull away from the pack.

This was the worst possible situation for Orb, and it came through with a significant win. When things go right, he should completely dominate the rest of the field.