The Truth about Mock Drafts

It’s no secret to those who know me that I am not the biggest fan of the NFL Draft. Over the weekend, I sat down to watch TV and turned on the draft for a while, and I realized that all that happens is that the “analysts” argue over whether the pick was good or not. I guess this is what sports are ultimately about.

We sports fans get some type of rush arguing that we know what the correct answer is to every play or management decision. There is no way that every single sports fan has not thought that he or she could do better than those who actually made the decision at some point in their life.

This brings me to the always-entertaining mock drafts! Over the years, this type of analysis has gotten a little out of hand. I know there are mock drafts for next year’s draft out there somewhere!

When people argue who is going where, I tend to keep my mouth shut because I’m not going to pretend I know what Al Davis is really thinking. So, instead, I now present The Truth about Mock Drafts!

 

I took it upon myself to analyze 50 amateur mock drafts (first round only) and see for myself how correct all these “experts” really are. The collection of mock drafts ranged from personal blogs to fantasy football sites. Enjoy!

 

 

Total Number of Picks Correct

Let's start with the broadest category. With 50 mock drafts, we saw 1600 selections with just 268 (16.8 percent) of picks correct. The best mock draft had 15 correct, and the worst had two correct. The most popular number of correct picks was four, and the average was 5.36 (10.7 percent).

 

Total Number of Top 10 Picks Correct

The maximum number of top 10 picks correct was eight, while the minimum was one. These mock drafts averaged 2.9 (5.8 percent) picks correct in the top 10.

 

Best Mocks

Not surprisingly, the first pick had the highest success rate, with 49 of 50 picks being correct. The second pick was correct in 39 (78 percent) of the mock drafts. The surprising picks were 14 and 17, which had a success 28 (56 percent) and 24 (48 percent) times, respectively.

 

Worst Picks

Not one mock draft got picks 11 (Aaron Maybin to the Bills), 16 (Larry English to the Chargers), 21 (Alex Mack to the Browns), and a few more near the end of the first round correct.

 

Most Popular Wrong Player

This award goes to Aaron Curry, who was picked to be selected third 32 out 50 times, but we all know that Tyson Jackson was picked at the three spot.

 

Conclusion

In the end, I learned that nobody knows what they are talking about. For people like me who do not like when people think they know what is going on, the NFL Draft is clearly one of the worst times of the year. It is not that I am trying to sway people away from reading mock drafts, because they are entertaining, but just beware that the majority of people will be wrong more than 60 percent of the time.

 

See the full report over at LinkedOnSports.com.