Kentucky Derby Odds: Favorites Who Will Trap Bettors

The 2013 Kentucky Derby doesn't feature a dominant horse. None of the Triple Crown hopefuls have proven enough early in their career to warrant being an overwhelming favorite. Instead, it's an extremely competitive field.

In terms of identifying the top finishers, which is a difficult task to begin with, it makes things even more complicated. There will be a couple of hyped horses who fall short of expectations, destroying a lot of picks in the process.

Let's take a look at the complete field of horses and their updated odds just hours before post time at Churchill Downs. It's followed by an examination of three of the top names on the board to illustrate why they are risky selections.

Horses and Odds

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	Black Onyx	Joe Bravo	Kelly Breen	SCR
2	Oxbow	Gary Stevens	D. Wayne Lukas	22-1
3	Revolutionary	Calvin Borel	Todd Pletcher	5-1
4	Golden Soul	Robby Albarado	Dallas Stewart	29-1
5	Normandy Invasion	Javier Castellano	Chad Brown	8-1
6	Mylute	Rosie Napravnik	Tom Amoss	13-1
7	Giant Finish	Jose Espinoza	Anthony Dutrow	36-1
8	Goldencents	Kevin Krigger	Doug O'Neill	7-1
9	Overanalyze	Rafael Bejarano	Todd Pletcher	14-1
10	Palace Malice	Mike Smith	Todd Pletcher	23-1
11	Lines of Battle	Ryan Moore	Aidan O'Brien	32-1
12	Itsmyluckyday	Elvis Trujillo	Eddie Plesa Jr.	9-1
13	Falling Sky	Luis Saez	John Terranova II	37-1
14	Verrazano	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	9-1
15	Charming Kitten	Edgar Prado	Todd Pletcher	29-1
16	Orb	Joel Rosario	Claude McGaughey III	7-1
17	Will Take Charge	Jon Court	D. Wayne Lukas	31-1
18	Frac Daddy	Victor Lebron	Kenny McPeek	22-1
19	Java's War	Julien Leparoux	Kenny McPeek	24-1
20	Vyjack	Garrett Gomez	Rudy Rodriguez	32-1

Odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET, May 4 (via KentuckyDerby.com)

Risky Picks

Orb

Orb is being viewed as a value pick. He was the morning-line favorite before early betting began, but he has fallen back into the pack. While that would normally present a good opportunity, there are reasons to worry about his chances.

Most importantly, while he won the Florida Derby the last time out, it was in less-than-impressive fashion, as he wasn't pushed nearly as much as he will be Saturday.

The other issue is some early struggles. In his first three career races, he finished no better than third and provided relatively mundane efforts. So it's hard to predict exactly what version of Orb will show up at Churchill Downs, which makes him a risk.

Itsmyluckyday

Itsmyluckyday has garnered a lot of attention leading into the Derby. Part of it is probably because he has a cool name, and that always gets people talking. The other part is due to some strong performances throughout his career.

The biggest concern is that he's never won a bigger race than the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. The top contenders in the field have had success at the Grade 2 and Grade 1 levels. His second in the Florida Derby came when Orb wasn't even at his best, as noted above.

Itsmyluckyday's other issue is inconsistency. For every strong performance, such as the Holy Bull Stakes, he's had a clunker. Finishing out of the money in the Dania Beach Stakes is an example. That makes it hard to rely on him on Derby day.

Mylute

Mylute is an interesting case. After some promising starts early in his career, including a pair of victories in 2012, his 2013 results have left a lot to be desired. And with form being a key factor, that doesn't bode well for his chances.

More specifically, he finished seventh in the Risen Star Stakes in his second-to-last start before the Derby. That's the type of race a top Derby contender should win. Instead, he failed to make any type of impact.

He did show better in the Louisiana Derby, finishing second, but he still couldn't match Revolutionary. All told, he hasn't fully reached the potential he illustrated in earlier starts, and it's a tough task for him to run his best race on such a massive stage.