Kentucky Derby Odds Expected to Climb from Morning Line

Orb may still be the Kentucky Derby favorite at post time Saturday, but it won't be at 7-2 odds, according to a veteran horse handicapper.

Michael Dempsey believes the Kentucky Derby odds will fluctuate Saturday and Verrazano may even leap-frog Orb as the favorite.

Regardless of what happens, the current line will push higher, he says.

"I think both will be around 9-2 to 5-1, but no way is Orb 7-2," said the longtime voice of TurfnSport.com.

He predicts Goldencents and his famous owner Rick Pitino will be the third betting choice at 6-1.

"I think Revolutionary may see some action from his 10-1 morning line odds, likely to be around 8-1 or 9-1."

However one horse that has attracted considerable betting action is not among Dempsey's top betting choices Saturday. Normandy Invasion was 9-1 as of mid-week, but much of the buzz around him stemmed from a close finish in the Wood Memorial, where he was nosed out by Verrazano.

"The Wood was on the slow side, but I really like his trainer Chad Brown," said Dempsey, who has picked three of the past six Derby winners.

"His pedigree on the dam side is more speed oriented, and that is one reason I left him off."

The handicapping theory working against Normandy Invasion is that his lineage and breeding won't allow him the stamina to finish strong in the longer Derby, which is 1 1/4 miles.

Orb Draws Lucky No. 16

If seven is lucky and 13 is unlucky, what is 16? It seems to be a good-luck post position for Kentucky Derby contenders and favorite Orb drew that gate for Saturday's race.

Since 1995, four Derby winners have emerged from the 16 position. It has also become a trend that horses in the far gates (16 through 20) perform well.

Animal Kingdom's 2011 Derby upset made it three of the past five Kentucky Derby races where the winner started from No. 16 or outside.