Kentucky Derby 2013 Odds: Smartest Plays to Back on Race Day

A lot goes into picking the winner for the Kentucky Derby. It depends on a horse's recent performance, trainer, jockey, post position and pedigree, just to name a few.

Orb and Verrazano are the favorites for the 2013 Kentucky Derby, according to Bovada, but there some challengers who figure to put both horses to the test.

Here's a look the history of post positions at the Kentucky Derby, followed by my favorite horses at the historic race this year.

Kentucky Derby Historical Winners by Post Position (Since 1900)

PP	Winners	Most Recent
1	12	Ferdinand - 1986
2	9	Affirmed - 1978
3	8	Real Quiet - 1998
4	11	Super Saver - 2010
5	12	Funny Cide - 2003
6	6	Sea Hero - 1993
7	8	Street Sense - 2007
8	10	Mine That Bird - 2009
9	4	Riva Ridge - 1972
10	10	Giacomo - 2005
11	3	Winning Colors - 1988
12	3	Canonero II - 1971
13	4	Smarty Jones - 2004
14	2	Carry Back - 1961
15	3	Fusaichi Pegasus - 2000
16	4	Animal Kingdom - 2011
17	0	-
18	1	Gato Del Sol - 1982
19	1	I'll Have Another - 2012
20	2	Big Brown - 2008

4. Normandy Invasion (10/1)

Normandy Invasion only has one victory in five career starts, but a second-place finish at the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 6 has some thinking the horse will pull off an upset.

Normandy Invasion is also slotted in the No. 5 post position. There have been 12 winners in that slot since 1900, tied for the most among all positions.

Jockey Javier Castellano won the 2004 Breeders' Cup Classic aboard Ghostzapper and the 2006 Preakness Stakes with Bernardini.

Trainer Chad Brown won his first Breeders' Cup race in 2008—one year after he went out on his own—and won another Breeders' Cup race in 2012 with Zagora.

Normandy Invasion's sire, Tapit, is the sire of several prominent names, including 2011 champion Hansen, 2008 champion Stardom Bound and Grade 1 winner Careless Jewel, who captured the 2009 Alabama at 1 1/4 miles. Normandy Invasion does have the pedigree to do damage this year at the Kentucky Derby.

3. Verrazano (9/2)

Verrazano has a lot going for him. He's won all four of his starts this year, including a victory at the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 6.

Verrazano is also surrounded by two historic figures in trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez.

Pletcher won the 2007 Kentucky Oaks and Belmont Stakes with Rags to Riches. He also won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. On top of that, he led all trainers in monies in 2011. He's won five Eclipse awards as top trainer.

Velasquez won the 2011 Kentucky Derby aboard Animal Kingdom. He also won the 2004 Kentucky Oaks with Ashado and he's won the Belmont Stakes twice. He's a two-time Eclipse Award winner (Outstanding Jockey) and he was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2011.

Verrazano's sire, More Than Ready, was known for his speed, but not endurance. But Verrazano's dam, Enchanted Rock, comes from European champion Giant's Causeway, who has sired several very talented horses. The link to Giant's Causeway gives Verrazano a shot at withstanding at 1 1/4 miles.

On the other hand, Verrazano owns the No. 14 post position, which has produced only two winners at the Kentucky Derby since 1900. 

2. Revolutionary (7/1)

Revolutionary has won three straight races, including both in 2013.

Revolutionary also has Todd Pletcher as his trainer, as well as Calvin Borel as his jockey. Borel—who was inducted into the Hall of Fame this year—has won three career Kentucky Derbys, as well as the 2009 Kentucky Oaks and Preakness Stakes aboard Rachel Alexandra.

On top of that, the horse's pedigree projects well at the Derby, possessing the excellent speed of sire War Pass and the endurance of dam Runup the Colors.

Last but not least, Revolutionary will be racing in the No. 3 slot, which has produced eight winners at the Derby since 1900.

1. Orb (17/4)

Orb may be slotted in the No. 16 post position this year (which has produced four winners since 1900), but the horse still has plenty to be hopeful for.

For one, the colt has racked up four straight victories, dating back to November 2012.

Secondly, trainer Claude "Shug" McGaughey has won the Eclipse Award for Top Trainer and trained several Eclipse champions, including the undefeated Personal Ensign. 

Third, the young Joel Rosario is gaining steam. After finishing fourth at the 2010 Kentucky Derby in his first appearance at the historic race, he set a Keeneland spring-meeting record with 38 victories in 2013.

Orb comes from sire Malibu Moon, who has sired several successful horses. Orb's dam, Lady Liberty, has been successful at 1 1/2 miles. Lady Liberty also comes from sire Unbridled, the 1990 Kentucky Derby star.