2013 Kentucky Derby: How History Suggests This Year Will Shake out

History. We look back on it to learn. 

It's never wise to ignore history. Sure, anomalies happen. A horse who is exceptional has the chance to defy the odds. But it's certainly going against conventional wisdom to pick a horse with poor odds in a poor post position. That's only asking for trouble.

History suggests that if you are in the No. 9 position, or position No. 11 on, you don't have a good chance to win the Kentucky Derby. That's why it's interesting that Orb and Verrazano—who hold the No. 16 and No. 14 post positions respectively—are the favorites in the 2013 Kentucky Derby (per Bovada).

Kentucky Derby Historical Winners by Post Position (Since 1900)

PP	Winners	Most Recent
1	12	Ferdinand - 1986
2	9	Affirmed - 1978
3	8	Real Quiet - 1998
4	11	Super Saver - 2010
5	12	Funny Cide - 2003
6	6	Sea Hero - 1993
7	8	Street Sense - 2007
8	10	Mine That Bird - 2009
9	4	Riva Ridge - 1972
10	10	Giacomo - 2005
11	3	Winning Colors - 1988
12	3	Canonero II - 1971
13	4	Smarty Jones - 2004
14	2	Carry Back - 1961
15	3	Fusaichi Pegasus - 2000
16	4	Animal Kingdom - 2011
17	0	-
18	1	Gato Del Sol - 1982
19	1	I'll Have Another - 2012
20	2	Big Brown - 2008

As you can see from the table, the No. 14 and No. 16 positions have won a combined six times since 1900. On the other hand, horses in the No. 16 (Animal Kingdom) and No. 19 (I'll Have Another) post positions have won the past two Kentucky Derbys.

Does that suggest a change of times? Not necessarily. Both Animal Kingdom and I'll Have Another had the speed to race from the outside. In fact, in the Preakness Stakes, a race designed to test a horse's sprinting ability, Animal Kingdom finished second after his Derby win, while I'll Have Another won the race.

So, do Orb and Verrazano have the sprinting speed to defy the odds at the Derby? 

The simple answer is yes.

Orb has won all of his 2013 races, and his last four races dating back to November 2012. The distances in those races ranged from one mile to 1 1/8 miles.

Verrazano has won all four of his 2013 races. His last three races ranged from one mile to 1 1/8 miles. 

Both Orb and Verrazano are strong, muscular horses, with the speed to leave the competition in their dust, and the strength to win a longer race.

But you must also consider Revolutionary, who drew the No. 3 post position and is ranked third in the odds. 

Not only have there been eight winners in the No. 3 position since 1900, Revolutionary has the speed and strength to win the 2013 Kentucky Derby.

Revolutionary certainly has the pedigree. He gets high-class speed from sire War Pass and endurance from dam Runup the Colors.

He's also ridden by world-class jockey Calvin Borel, who was inducted in the Hall of Fame this year. Borel won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver and won the 2009 Preakness Stakes with Rachel Alexandra.

Beyond that, Todd Pletcher is his trainer. Pletcher won four straight Eclipse awards from 2004-2007, and another in 2010. His horse, Rags to Riches, became the first filly to win the Belmont Stakes in 102 years in 2007. Pletcher won the Kentucky Derby with Super Saver in 2010. He also led all trainers in monies in 2011.

Based on history, Revolutionary has the best chance to win the 2013 Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, don't be surprised if Orb or Verrazano defy the odds, especially Orb.