Mayweather vs Guerrero Odds: Sucker Bets from Main Event and Undercard

When Floyd Mayweather and Robert Guerrero go head to head from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night, Mayweather will be heavily favored to come out on top. There certainly isn't much value in betting on "Money" to prevail, but that doesn't mean that you should go with Guerrero for the sake of doing so.

There are plenty of enticing bets on the table for Saturday night's card and that is by design. While there are no guarantees in boxing, the results seem fairly obvious ahead of time. Hitting a big bet on an underdog could certainly mean a sizable payout, but the risks are too great and far outweigh the potential reward.

Here are three sucker bets from Mayweather vs. Guerrero and its undercard that may look great on paper, but should be avoided at all costs.

*Betting odds courtesy of Bovada and 5 Dimes

Robert Guerrero over Floyd Mayweather (+475)

Mayweather is a heavy favorite to defeat Guerrero on Saturday at -750, but that means Guerrero is a big underdog as well. At +475 bettors stand to make a good chunk of change if Guerrero pulls off the upset, however, the odds of that happening aren't great. For as confident as Guerrero has seemed during the lead up to the fight, he simply doesn't have the tools necessary to take down Mayweather. Not surprisingly, Mayweather feels the same way.

Not only does Mayweather have a 43-0 record working in his favor, but he should have the physical and mental edge over Guerrero as well. Guerrero has had a great career in his own right with a record of 31-1-1, although his resume pales in comparison with Mayweather's in terms of quality of opponent. Aside from a victory over 28-2 Andre Berto in his most recent fight and a triumph over an old Joel Casamayor in 2010, Guerrero lacks wins over big-name fighters.

Mayweather, on the other hand, enters the fight coming off a win over 37-4 Miguel Cotto who really tested his limits. Mayweather is a better fighter for having been a part of that bout and he should be able to handle whatever Guerrero throws his way. Mayweather may lose a fight at some point, but it would be a huge shock if Guerrero were to blemish his perfect record.

Mayweather vs. Guerrero Under 11.5 Rounds (+190)

The over/under in terms of rounds for Mayweather vs. Guerrero goes hand in hand with the expected winner. Mayweather has more punching power than he is given credit for as evidenced by his 26 career knockout victories, but he generally likes to take fights the distance and win on the scorecards. Mayweather's quickness and agility allows him to resist punishment for the most part, so he is better off the longer the fight lasts.

With that in mind, it makes sense that the over/under for rounds is 11.5. Few are expecting a knockout, but if it does occur at +190 it would lead to a pretty nice payout. At the same time, that hardly seems like a big enough line to warrant a bet. Guerrero would be wise to go for the knockout early against Mayweather since "Money" should have the stamina advantage, but Mayweather has obviously never been knocked out before, so it will probably be a futile effort.

Mayweather tends to dictate the pace of his fights, and with Guerrero figuring to be the aggressor, Mayweather will try to slow things down and win a methodical fight on the scorecards. He could potentially catch Guerrero napping at some point, but Mayweather won't take any unnecessary chance. Betting on the under could be justified with a bigger line, but +190 simply isn't worth the risk.

Daniel Ponce de Leon over Abner Mares (+330)

The biggest fight on the Mayweather vs. Guerrero undercard is unquestionably the WBC Featherweight Championship match between titleholder Daniel Ponce de Leon and challenger Abner Mares. With a record of 44-4 it may be hard to believe that Ponce de Leon is a significant underdog, but Mares is a rising star in the sport and has yet to be beaten at 24-0-1. Ponce de Leon obviously has plans to spoil Mares' party, but Mares is the younger, hungrier and more talented fighter.

One concern regarding Mares is the fact that he is moving up from super bantamweight to featherweight, but such a move generally isn't too taxing for younger fighters. Also, Ponce de Leon is extremely experienced and has pretty much seen it all in the boxing ring, so Mares must be cognizant of his positioning at all times. As long as Mares doesn't let his guard down, he should be able to come out on top.

There is no doubt that Ponce de Leon is an intriguing bet at +330 due to his track record of success. The important thing to consider, though, is who the better fighter is now rather than at any time in the past. Mares is a rising star and this fight is meant to be his coming-out party. He can't afford to take a champion like Ponce de Leon lightly, but betting against Mares isn't an advisable move.

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