Leo Santa Cruz vs. Alexander Munoz: Preview and Predictions

On the May 4 Floyd Mayweather-Robert Guerrero undercard, Golden Boy Promotions will be showcasing one of the hottest young stars in the sport: undefeated 24-year-old Leo Santa Cruz. The former IBF bantamweight champion will be making his debut at junior featherweight against well-traveled veteran Alexander Munoz.

Santa Cruz had a terrific 2012. In June he captured the vacant IBF bantamweight title when he beat Vusi Malinga by unanimous decision. In September, he subjected former champion Eric Morel to a punishing body attack, forcing Morel to quit on his stool after Round 5.

In November, Santa Cruz recorded a thrilling Round 9 TKO against gritty but overmatched Victor Zalena on the Abner Mares-Anselmo Moreno undercard. For the year he went 5-0. 

Munoz, 34, is a former world champion at 115 pounds. He has to know he's being brought in as something of a sacrificial lamb here, but he has fought dozens of rounds at the world class level, and a win over a young phenom like Santa Cruz would reignite his career.  

Tale of the Tape

Leo Santa Cruz                         Alexander Munoz Height:             5'7"                                           5'5.5" Weight:            122                                           122 Reach:              69"                                           68.5" Age:                 24                                            34 Record:            23-0, 13 KOs                            36-4, 28 KOs Rounds:           123                                          245 Stance:            Orthodox                                  Orthodox Residence:       Rosemead, California           San Felix, Veneuela

Although the reach is fairly close between these two, Santa Cruz's height advantage is indicative of his larger frame. He started his career at bantamweight and won a world title there, but it's been obvious from the start that he would grow out of the weight class fairly quickly.

Munoz, on the other hand, had the best years of his career fighting at super flyweight. 

Munoz has fought almost exactly twice as many professional rounds as Santa Cruz. Santa Cruz was still fighting eight-rounders as recently as November of 2011, while Munoz has been competing at the world championship level for years.

But while 34 is still relatively young for a normal person, most prize fighters have long since seen their best days by that point. Against a larger and much younger athlete like Santa Cruz, Munoz will likely need more than a little bit of guile.  

Key Storylines

The immediate storyline going into this fight is that a young fighter on the rise is taking on a tough veteran who should push him without seriously threatening to derail him.

The extended storyline is building Santa Cruz into an exciting future opponent for Golden Boy star Abner Mares, who fights Daniel Ponce De Leon on the same card. This will be the second time in six months that Santa Cruz and Mares have appeared on the same card. 

In Ponce De Leon, Mares has a tougher opponent than Santa Cruz. Still, it's a fight he should win. But since the majority of the top fighters at 122 and 126 are signed with rival Top Rank, he faces a shortage of legitimate opponents going forward. 

Santa Cruz expressed an interest in fighting Mares last November as soon as he finished off Victor Zalena. He has been talking it up ever since.

From Munoz's point of view, the storyline is about a former world champion getting a shot to reclaim his relevancy on the biggest fight card of the year to date. If he can play the spoiler role and knock off Santa Cruz, he should be looking at another world title shot. 

Strengths

Leo Santa Cruz

Santa Cruz attacks the body like a classic Mexican ring warrior. He throws a very quick, crisp jab up top and uses it as a beautiful setup for his punishing left hook to the rib cage.

Santa Cruz is a volume puncher, and I have been very impressed by the way he mixes up the angles of his punches. A typical Santa Cruz barrage will include attacks to the body and head and straight punches followed by violent, looping hooks and jolting uppercuts.

Even solid defensive fighters have trouble avoiding the third, fourth or fifth punches in a Santa Cruz combination.

Santa Cruz is at the point in his career when a young fighter is absolutely overflowing with confidence. He held a world title, he's fought on major cards and the best still appears to be in front of him. 

That kind of youthful self-belief can be very tough to turn back.

Alexander Munoz

Munoz is nicknamed "El Explosivo." With 28 of his professional wins coming by way of knockout, it's no mystery how he got the handle. Even back in his amateur days, he was a dangerous banger, knocking out 129 opponents, an astonishing total.

A young fighter looking to learn how to punch with more power could do worse than studying film of Munoz. The Venezuelan is a master when it comes to dropping his weight down and sitting on his punches. This requires a strong ability to remain calm in the midst of chaos, a quality he will need against the relentlessly attacking Santa Cruz.

With almost twice as many professional rounds as Santa Cruz, experience is a definite plus for Munoz. Still, Santa Cruz has beaten a number of very experienced opponents at this point.

Weaknesses

Leo Santa Cruz

Santa Cruz's major weaknesses have mostly been covered up by his strengths so far. But even in the fights that he has won with ease, he has not been difficult to hit.

Like many aggressive body punchers, Santa Cruz at times gets sloppy about dropping his hands and bending forward. He comes forward in a predictable manner and uses minimal head movement. He fights a lot like a smaller version of Antonio Margarito, a comparison he has acknowledged with pride.

Santa Cruz has had great success so far with his aggressive, come-forward approach, and he looks like he has the physical tools and the heart to keep winning with that style.

But there is always a risk for him against a patient veteran like Munoz who knows how to sit down on his punches and make them matter.

Alexander Munoz

Munoz is the naturally smaller man in this fight, and that could make for a long night against a beast like Santa Cruz, even if he were still in his prime. And Munoz hasn't looked like a fighter in his prime in years.

Munoz last held the world title in 2008. In May of that year he dropped an extremely exciting split decision to Cristian Mijares.

Since that fight, he has often looked less than spectacular against unspectacular opposition.

In 2010, he dropped a unanimous decision to Koki Kameda. Kameda is definitely a quality fighter, but Munoz looked far less sharp in that fight than he had looked two years prior against Mijares.

In between the Mijares and Kameda fights he allowed 2-6-1 Breilor Teran to go a full 10 rounds with him, and he managed just a majority decision against 10-13-2 Leopoldo Arrocha.

It's hard not to view him as a fighter in decline.    

Leo Santa Cruz Will Win If...

Leo Santa Cruz should be able to win this fight simply by doing what he is good at: coming forward and attacking the body. He has a very good jab and is very hard to defend against when he uses it to set up the left hook to the body.

He's fighting a guy with a great record of knocking people out, so he needs to avoid simply wading forward, looking to unload. If he fires that crisp jab ahead of his body attack, he should keep Munoz too off-balance to set his feet. 

Santa Cruz should focus on keeping his hands up and his posture correct. He's a take-one-to-give-one kind of fighter, but he can minimize Munoz's opportunities to hurt him if he varies the angles of his punches and keeps them coming without a lot of space in between to counter. 

As the younger, stronger athlete, Santa Cruz should look to establish a fast pace. He should jump on Munoz early in the first round and set a tempo that the older fighter will struggle to keep up with. 

Alexander Munoz Will Win If...

Alexander Munoz comes into this fight with the classic "puncher's chance."  To land that big punch, he's going to need to stay patient, looking for the right opening.

He may have to tread a very fine line, giving up rounds while protecting himself enough to stay in the fight. An experienced veteran like Munoz should be able to read Santa Cruz and find at least a few openings.

Naturally, Munoz's chances will be improved if Santa Cruz takes him too lightly. The cocky young fighter getting knocked off by an aging warrior is a storyline as old as the sport.

I'm not really expecting that to happen, though. Santa Cruz strikes me as the sort of fighter who loves boxing and would rather be in the gym than anywhere else. So I think he'll be prepared.

More likely, Munoz will need to batten down the hatches and wait for a chance to unload the big punch.  

Prediction

This fight has the potential to be entertaining. Alexander Munoz has always been an action fighter with a big punch, and now this former world champion is being handed a golden opportunity to thrust himself back into the spotlight. I believe he will want to make the most of it.  

But he was a big puncher at 115 pounds. It might be tough for him to carry that power up to 122 at the age of 34. 

Ultimately, I only see this fight going one way. Santa Cruz is going to be relentless from the first round onward. Munoz will try to match him, but he just won't have the physical tools to keep up.

Santa Cruz will beat away on Munoz's body, taking away his ability to move. Once he has pounded all the energy out of Munoz's legs, he'll finish him off. 

At this point in his career, Santa Cruz has been in the ring with fighters every bit as talented and experienced as Munoz is. So far, he has chewed them all up and spat them out. 

He knows very well what kind of opportunities are waiting for him if he can keep doing the same. 

Santa Cruz by Round 7 TKO.