Overkill: The Matthew Stafford Myth

Can you imagine an NFL where Troy Aikman never played for the Cowboys, because they felt super bust, Tony Mandarich, was a far safer pick? What about one where the Cincinnati Bengals are an even more miserable team because they passed on Carson Palmer for Terrence Newman.

These are realistic scenarios that were discussed among the draft and NFL community before the Cowboys and Bengals went on the clock. Today we face a similar situation:

The Detroit Lions will more than likely give Matt Stafford $40 million guaranteed dollars to be the #1 pick of the 2009 NFL draft. It feels like there isn't a media outlet or internet forum alive that hasn't completely blasted the idea of taking Stafford. Any media that calls Michigan its home has been extra sour towards the concept. But the funny thing about all of this is that they are all wrong. Their hearts are in the right place, but they aren't thinking clearly with their heads. These are the most common arguments that are put forward:

Jason Smith and Aaron Curry would be safer picks

Let's be honest, most of us have never seen a Wake Forest or Baylor game in our entire lifetime. These two prospects are in no way "can't-miss". Jason Smith has never played in the 3 stance and could be top heavy with insufficient strength in his lower body. Aaron Curry has got some stiffness in his hips and minor questions about his upside have been raised. But how much does being a safe pick matter? Matt McGuire, a draft analyst for WalterFootball.com, put it best:

"...if you have one player on the draft board and he is the "safest" pick, but not the best pick, then you have some serious explaining to do."

 

Quarterbacks have a very high bust rate!

But what does this have to do with Stafford? We're going to see less and less first round busts as we learn more and more from each case why they busted. Scouting quarterbacks is more refined than it has ever been, Graham Harrel would have been a first round pick in some of the classes that the QBs came from. This also has nothing to do with Stafford as a QB. If you could point out that he played in an offense like Alex Smith, where his worst attributes were hidden, or that he lacked the intangibles like Joey Harrington than I could understand where you were coming from. But these are the exact kind of irrelevant statistics that caused analysts to predict that Aaron Rodgers would fail because the replacement QBs to follow HOFs usually had poor careers. It's not relevant to Aaron Rodgers the individual, it's isolated situations being grouped together.

It's not that I hate Stafford, it's that defense wins championship and Aaron Curry will be the best defensive player

I agree that defense wins championships, but if you look closely it's the best combination of defense and QB that win the championships. In SB XLII, Tom Brady was harassed by the Giants' D-line the entire game, but he was able to overcome 3 bad quarters to put his team in the position to win the game when it mattered most. That's what elite QBs can do. Unfortunately for him, another clutch QB was able to drive 83 yards in 2:04 minutes. This is something that Daunte Culpepper and Drew Stanton could not do. A great defense can get you the #1 seed, but when you're in the playoffs, your team will be faced with a situation where your QB will have to drive 70+ yards in two minutes or less.

Detroit Lions have the worst o-line in the NFL and Stafford will be sacked into oblivion

This is a legitimate worry, but it can easily be solved in one of two ways:

1) Draft a LT with the #20 pick. The LT is the 2nd most important position in the game, and having a guy like William Beatty could move Jeff Backus inside where he belongs and solve two positional problems at once. Gosder Cherilous looks like he could become a very good starter at RT too, so all that leaves you with is the center and right guard position. The center position usually has the least talented linemen playing it. The average amount of sacks given up by a center in all of the NFL last year was around 2. The right guard position isn't that important either and could easily be found in the 3rd round or later. Right guards are usually better run blockers than pass protectors anyway, teams put their most talented interior linemen at left guard.

2) Don't start Stafford his first year and draft linemen for them to develop. This worked out well for Carson Palmer. The Ravens drafted 3/5ths of their o-line a year before Flacco and they did a good job of keeping him upright.

This 2010 draft class looks so much better that Stafford would be a 3rd rounder if he came out in it.

There are only two probable first rounders at the moment in Sam Bradford and Jevan Snead. Sam Bradford will probably be picked apart like Stafford is now. Get used to "I don't like Bradford's release," and even if he is still a consensus top pick, there is no guarantee that Detroit will have the top pick to take him. Jevan Snead needs to step his game up, but he should because it's in his potential. I wouldn't touch Tebow until the 4th or 5th round. He plays in the same offenes that caused all of Alex Smith's problems and all of his mechanics are awkward. Colt McCoy could go undrafted with his weak arm and experience in gimmick offense.

I don't like Stafford's accuracy numbers and didn't show up in big games.

Matt McGuire once again made a good point about Stafford's accuracy percentage:

"I discovered an intriguing trend in Georgia's offensive design: It calls for virtually no short to intermediate routes in the passing game. Think Mike Martz with less shotgun. Stafford's only options downfield are into coverage, and that is the reason for many of his interceptions. Once Stafford gets into a more traditional West Coast offense in the NFL, his completion percentage will go up and he will have easier options to throw the ball."

Stafford was 3-0 in bowl games throughout his career, played top competition every week in the SEC and had arguably his best career game against defending NCAA Champions, LSU, when both teams' records were 6-1. That's the game you should watch if you have any doubts about Stafford. He showcased his decision making, arm strength, accuracy and ability to audible that makes him the #1 overall pick. Can we really fault Stafford for having a bad game against Florida? His bookends aren't a shining example of pass blocking and Florida has one of the biggest phyiscal freaks at DE in Carlos Dunlap. Matthew Stafford is not the only QB this defense has shut down.

Detroit fans and media have the right to question the decision of the team's general manager. They've been the best example of incomptenece for as long as Bobby Layne quit wearing honolulu blue. But when you've gne that same drought without a franchise QB, who could make Detroit the dynasty of the 2010s, why are you nitpicking Stafford's prospective corpse clean?