AFC East Pre Draft Breakdown

Heading into the 2009 NFL Draft this weekend, we take a look at each team in the AFC East and focus on what that team “can lean on” this year, what part of the team “will be exposed” and what intangible each team has that represents their “12th Man."

 

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins were the Cinderella story of the NFL last year with the prince being a tuna named Parcells, and the dance being the playoffs. Going from 1-15 the previous year to 11-5 and winning the division was truly a fairy tale even the most optimistic of fans couldn’t have envisioned.

The only problem was the clock struck midnight as the Dolphins lost to the Baltimore Ravens in the wild card round 27-9.

 

They can lean on: Run Defense

A few things will attribute to the Dolphins being able to rely on their run defense this year whether they add anything to their front seven through the draft or not.

Bill Parcells likes them big, and in 2008 the defensive line for the the Dolphins got big. Defensive ends Phillip Merling (6’4”, 290 lbs) and Kendall Langford (6’6”, 290 lbs) are two huge bookends that Parcells drafted in his first draft with Miami last year.

Both became starters on a defensive line that will continue to keep blockers off linebackers, like recently re—signed Channing Crowder and 2008 Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Joey Porter.

Paul Pasqualoni, the defensive coordinator for the Dolphins will be in his second season with the team. Last year, the players praised Pasqualoni for installing a less complicated system that relied on athletic instinct rather than reading and reacting.

Players were flying to the ball and attacking. This will be an even more aggressive unit in year two of a player—friendly system.

After finishing 10th in the league against the run last year, expect the Dolphins to be even better this year.

 

Will be exposed: Deep passing game

Chad Pennington was a Godsend to the Dolphins last year. After the Brett Favre saga played out in New York, Pennington became the odd man out, and Parcells, along with Miami General Manager Jeff Ireland, signed him immediately to stabilize the quarterback situation.

He did that and more.

A smart and accurate passer, Pennington lead the Dolphins down the field and into the playoffs by not turning the ball over nor making mistakes (until the playoffs). But his lack of arm strength is a concern, and at age 32 that concern isn’t going away.

Teams can roll up defenders in coverage and know they are not going to be tested deep. Safeties playing closer to the line of scrimmage clog the underneath routes that Pennington covets, making it harder for running backs to find any running room.

Look for the trifecta of Parcells, Ireland, and Head Coach Tony Sparano to ease strong—armed Chad Henne onto the field if Pennington’s arm strength becomes too much of a problem.

 

Twelfth Man: Bill Parcells

He has done it before and he did it again.

He fixes teams. He came to Miami to “put a system in place” as he has said a thousand times and it appears the system is in place.

He could have walked away after his first year of a four—year deal and still been paid the entire $12 million for the contract due to a clause that was triggered with the sale of the team.

But he is coming back for a second year as he said there is still “unfinished business." Miami stands to gain even more with his experience, direction, and player evaluations.

 

New England Patriots

We found out just how bad the Patriots would be last year if they didn’t have All-Universe quarterback Tom Brady. The answer was not too bad.

What we did see was either, the unveiling of a super secret weapon they had at QB in Matt Cassell, or a system that is friendly and concrete enough to continue to run at a high level even without an All—Pro quarterback.

The answer could be either, but it is more likely the Patriots will have Brady back for the opener, with New England again shooting for the division title and a deep playoff run.

 

They can rely on: Passing attack

The Patriots will again be the big kid on the block if for nothing more than Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker. The ability to hit deep (Moss) and underneath (Welker) at will makes an already dangerous Brady that much more effective.

An underrated offensive line keeps Brady off his back and allows him enough time to reflect on his childhood in between reads.

Add to this the fact that, with Lawrence Maroney and Fred Taylor in the backfield, you can’t just drop eight men into coverage. It was only with a relentless pass rush from a pool of extremely talented defensive linemen on a New York Giants team that they beat the Patriots at full strength for the first time since 2007.

The passing game will be back. That’s bad news for the rest of the NFL.

 

Will be exposed: Aging linebackers

It’s hard to say anything negative about the Patriots.

They are littered with both veteran and young talent everywhere. But if they do have a small weakness, it is the lack of depth at linebacker.

ILB Tedy Bruschi is 35 and OLB Adalius Thomas is 31. New England has younger linebackers behind them but Bill Belichick likes the older veterans and will likely struggle to replace Junior Seau provided he doesn’t unretire for the third time.

Playing in a 3-4 defense requires that you have plenty of healthy linebackers, and New England will surely address this in the draft by looking to find inside and outside linebackers capable of playing smart and tough—a Belichick prerequisite.

 

Twelfth Man: Bill Belichick

As long as he is around, his teams will have more than a puncher’s chance of beating yours. He is a chess champion’s nightmare and a nemesis to even the best strategists.

He has had only one losing season since taking over the Patriots in 2000, and that was his first season. The man knows how to coach.

His winning percentage at New England is almost 71 percent and his playoff winning percentage is over 82 percent.

He has won NFL Coach of the Year twice and could have easily won it a few more times. In a year in which he was accused of cheating, by video taping signals from opposing teams' sidelines, he responded by winning the next 18 games.

 

New York Jets

The New York Jets took a gamble on an aging gunslinger in Brett Favre and three months into the season it looked as though it may have paid off. The Jets had just handed the Tennessee Titans their first loss of the season and improved to 8-3 on the year heading towards a No. 2 seeding.

However, they would lose four of their next five games and miss the playoffs entirely.

They can rely on: Defensive intensity

Blitz, blitz and blitz some more.

You will see the Jets defenders coming from all angles this year under new head coach Rex Ryan. Safeties and outside linebackers alike are licking their chops in New York at the thought of playing for Ryan.

He will bring an excitement and a new attitude to a defense already stocked with talent.

Prior to last season, in a classic "last ditch effort” to milk as much out of the Brett Favre experiment as possible, former coach Eric Mangini brought in Kris Jenkins to anchor the middle of the defensive line and Calvin Pace to bring pressure off the edge.

Ryan brought Bart Scott from the Ravens to join a defense that already includes one of the young shut-down corners in Darelle Revis.

 

Will be exposed: Scoring points

Even with a defense that is sure to give teams headaches, where are the points going to come from in New York?

The quarterback position is in worse shape than it was last year when the organization thought little enough of Pennington, to let him go, and Kellen Clemons to bring in Brett Favre.

Favre and Pennington are gone, and Clemons is a year older but still doesn’t scare anyone.

At wide receiver, their biggest weapon is Jerricho Crotchery who is a number two, at best. Chanci Stuckey showed some flashes but is still raw after three years in the league.

They need an upgrade at wide receiver and could use a tight end to compliment Dustin Keller. They will surely address both of those situations, along with quarterback in the draft.

Ryan has his hands full with this offense.

 

Twelfth Man:

I believe this line is a secret strength of the Jets. Ryan has got to be at least breathing a slight sigh of relief that he should be able to run the ball between the tackles while eating up yardage and time off the clock—keeping his best unit, the defense, fresher.

The left side of the line is the strongest with Nick Mangold at center, Alan Faneca at left guard and a much—improved D’Brikashaw Ferguson at left tackle. Damien Woody, a converted guard that should start at right tackle, provides experience with a huge frame.

If they stay healthy and consistent, this line should be able to be the role player Ryan needs in his team philosophy.

 

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo started out as one of the hottest teams in the AFC, leading the division for several weeks until things started to break down. This year, I don't know that things will change much in terms of wins and losses, but change is coming. This is a team in flux.

 

They can rely on: Terrell Owens

I honestly can’t believe I said that. As much as I have let T.O. have it over the years for every gratitude seeking gesture, every “me first” moment, and every ignorant insinuation, I have to admit this marriage just makes too much sense.

He has to have success. It’s a collision course that can’t be stopped.

T.O. is not going out like this.

This is someone who actually cares about how you are supposed to play your position.

The problem is, he just has a warped sense of what being a team player is and says some dumb things sometimes. Outside of that, he honestly has done more to perfect his craft than most people give him credit for.

He is an excellent route runner, stays in phenomenal shape, and gets in position to make the catch as good as anyone. Though he has lost a step and drops too many balls, he has a chip on his shoulder the size of Texas right now.

Jerry Jones better get his popcorn ready. A motivated T.O. is a dangerous T.O. In other words, he ain't goin' out like this.

He’s not retiring a Buffalo Bill.

With a one—year contract in his back pocket, you will be getting 150 percent T.O., all year long, trying to show his former boss it was a mistake to cut him, while also warranting one last good contract before he retires.

Will be exposed: Running attack

This is a tough one because there are a few glaring areas that will be exposed. The lack of a pass rush is one but I am going to go with the questions in the backfield. 

 Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first three games of the year. Fred Jackson is a decent back—up and makes plays when he gets a chance, but he has a problem holding onto the ball (three fumbles in limited action last  year).

With the demand for touches that having T.O. will bring, coupled with the loss of All—World LT Jason Peters and the uncertainty of who's the starting running back, the ground game is in a lot of trouble.

Buffalo is likely to be playing from behind in a lot of thier games, giving T.O. his yards through the air, and causing inevidable abandonment of the running game.

Twelfth Man: Victim of circumstance

Buffalo is the only team in this preview that gets a negative intangible. The reason is they are just stuck in a division where every team is making grand strides to get better and/or stay great.

The Jets will be better. The Dolphins will be better. And New England is simply New England. Buffalo unfortunately will find ways to lose ballgames they should win.

They will lose leads, lose confidence, and lose within the division. Buffalo ownership can't win for losing either. They want to expand the market and take a piece of Canada. 

However, they only end up upsetting their fans by taking home field advantage away from their team for a week when they moved a home game to the dome in Toronto. In a dome means no snow. The game was against Miami. The Bills lost the game. Get where I'm going, here?

Buffalo is starting to put pieces together, but they still have too many holes to holes to fill to seriously contend.

That being said, which team will come out better after the draft?