The Percy Harvin Effect

Brett Solesky@@MidwayBearsBlogCorrespondent IApril 23, 2009

Word, as most draft fans know, is beginning to circulate that Florida wide receiver Percy Harvin tested positive for marijuana use at the NFL combine back in February.

Harvin, by most accounts, is considered perhaps the most explosive offensive weapon in the draft and arguably a Top-15 pick in this weekend’s draft.

So already speculation has been building as to the possibility of Harvin sliding all the way to the Bears at the 49th slot of the second round. I can answer this question emphatically and in a way that hopefully will put all of the speculation to rest. Harvin will likely not fall out of the first round of the NFL draft because too many teams see to high a value in him as a prospect and a player.

Charlie Casserly reported tonight on NFL network’s path to the draft show that three teams he already spoke with said if Harvin begins to slide into their area he is their guy at that draft slot. Surely they will have to answer to Harvin’s positive test, but the risk/reward factor for them will be to great to pass up. Harvin is an extremely valuable and multi-dimensional talent that will make a group of fan’s very happy when he does begin to fall in the draft.

For me personally, I think Harvin is overrated and think he’ll be one of the 50 percent failure rates that happen every year in the NFL draft. I see Harvin and I see Peter Warrick from Florida State. The speed and the ability in the open field is uncanny and it’s why I look at him with a huge skeptical eye. For me, the character concerns even compound the fact that I wouldn’t draft him all that high.

Now the next question generated by the speculation surrounding Harvin might be, does he fall far enough to the point where the Bears can trade up to get him later in the first round?

As I discussed in this previous blog post about the Bears’ trade options in moving up, that idea is also nearly impossible. Most of the ammo the Bears had to trade up with they gave up in the trade for Cutler.

Now with that first part of this blog out of the way, there is reason to believe that Harvin’s positive drug test can positively effect the Bears’ chance of landing a good player in the draft at 49th overall.

A few scenarios I’d like to touch on real quick are pretty easy to follow and likely make the most sense regarding our Chicago Bears:

A) Percy Harvin Could Slide in the Draft to a Team That Likely Would Have Taken a Hakeem Nicks, Brian Robiskie, or Kenny Britt.

What I am saying here is that the Bears have been targeting three solid receivers who project well not only for the Bears’ draft needs, but could have realistically slid to the 49th spot in the NFL draft prior to the Harvin news.

Now that the Harvin news has come out, there is a team in the first round that will pass on  Harvin for another player who has Harvin’s overall value in round one. They will grab the next best player that fits into their needs that is on their big board. This will cause Harvin to begin his slide in the NFL draft to a team that may be likely to take one of Nicks, Robiskie, or Britt in the first round.

B) TB) That team will draft Harvin instead of one of those three Since Nicks, Britt and Robiskie will begin to slide in the draft as a consequence to Harvin’s sliding it means one of those three will be closer to where the Bears are drafting at 49th overalll in the second round. A team that would otherwise be taking Nicks, Britt, or Robiskie late in the first round will now pass on them. Taking Harvin late in the first round and causing...

C) The Increase in the Likelihood That Britt, Robiskie, or Nicks Does Fall to the Bears at 49.

There was already by most accounts a chance that one of the "big three" will fall to the Chicago Bears. The three that have been scouted over, discussed, profiled, worked out by the Bears coaching staff and scouting personnel over and over again. These three perfectly fit the type of receiver the Bears are looking for in the first place. They fit that role that is open opposite Devin Hester who more closely resembles Harvin’s game-changing explosiveness in the open field.

The likelihood has now increased, by how much? I can’t precisely say, and no one really knows. But the good news for right now is that helped the Bears out at least indirectly. Hopefully on Saturday it will be come a direct positive effect in which the Bears benefit by landing one of the big three receivers that we have been discussing since the end of the NFL scouting combine nearly two months ago.

Posted in Chicago Bears Draft, NFL Network Coverage Tagged: 2009 NFL, 2009 NFL Draft, Andre Smith, Brian Robiskie, Chicago Bears Draft, Chicago Sports, collegefootball, football, Hakeem Nicks, Jerry Angelo, Kenny Britt, NFL Draft, NFL Scouting Combine, Sports, wide receivers

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