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Fantasy Football Top 20 (Pre-NFL Draft)
Michael WhooleyApr 23, 2009
With the NFL Draft just around the corner, we here at the Bruno Boys thought it would be a fun exercise to rank the top 20 fantasy players for 2009 going into the weekend before the Draft shakes things up.
Doing just that is one of the Bruno Boys’ newest additions, Greg Warnock.
When fantasy draft time comes around in August, refer back to this column to give you an idea of how things have changed and why.
*The rankings below are based on a standard scoring league (non PPR).
1. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
More than 1,700 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns a year ago—not bad for a guy who faced many defenses that kept eight men in the box. As long as he’s healthy, he repeats, and possibly exceeds those numbers.
2. RB Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons)
Turner nearly got 1,700 yards himself last year, falling short by just one, but his 17 touchdowns were the real eye-popper. With a solid quarterback in Matt Ryan, who now has a year of NFL experience under his belt, don't worry about defenses keying in on Turner in 2009.
3. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Jones-Drew finally becomes the premier running back for the Jags and should have a heck of a year. Unless the Jaguars bring in another back this weekend, I don’t see him coming off the field much. That means he’ll score you plenty of touchdowns.
4. RB Matt Forte (Chicago Bears)
The Bears will get to open things up a little bit with new QB Jay Cutler under center, but head coach Lovie Smith won’t shy away from the strong running attack that was their offense in 2008.
5. RB Steve Slaton (Houston Texans)
When Slaton got his opportunity with Houston last year he took off with it. He should be able to gobble up the yards and rack up double-digit touchdowns in a full season as a starter.
6. RB Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia Eagles)
Westbrook would be No. 3 on this list if not for his penchant for landing on the injury report. He will still get a lot of the touches in Philly, even if they draft a complementary running back in the first round. Westbrook is a steal at No. 6 if healthy.
7. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)
Conventional wisdom says take a running back in the first round, however, with many teams using multiple threats in the backfield, elite quarterbacks and wide receivers are worth taking early.
Brees had an amazing statistical season in 2008, and should put up huge numbers again with his offense coming back largely intact.
8. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers)
While the guy is no longer a No. 1 overall pick, he is still a first round selection. He played much of last year with injuries, and still produced a combined 1,500 yards rushing and receiving. Tomlinson is also a touchdown monster, punching in 12 last year. While Darren Sproles could steal some touches, LT is still an RB1.
9. RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams)
Jackson has had trouble living up to the potential of his draft selection each year. Yet I still think this is the season he can break out.
The biggest problem the Rams have had is a shaky offensive line. Signing Jason Brown from the Ravens and (hopefully) drafting Jason Smith of Baylor will strengthen that group. As another plus, new head coach Steve Spagnuolo, an import from the Giants, knows the importance of the run.
10. RB Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)
Gore didn’t quite live up to the expectations everyone had for him in Mike Martz’s offense a year ago. Head coach Mike Singletary, though, will rely on his running back to carry the team. As long as he is healthy (he missed two games last year), Gore should produce as a top 10 guy.
11. QB Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
Brady won’t put up 50 touchdowns like he did two years ago, but I do see him reaching at least 30, while throwing for more than 3,500 yards. He is healthy and still has Randy Moss and Wes Welker, along with Joey Galloway.
Brady’s running game is better than it was two years ago, but the passing attack is New England’s bread-and-butter. Matt Cassel put up big numbers last season, so why wouldn’t Brady do the same this time around? Plus, you might be able to steal Brady in the second round if others are worried about his injury.
12. RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans)
While many others will have this guy ranked in the top 10, and even the top five, I can’t agree. He had a great rookie campaign, but the fact that he splits touches with LenDale White keeps him from matching the truly elite fantasy backs.
13. RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)
Johnson’s problem holds true for Williams as well. He could be a top five pick, but the presence of Jonathan Stewart limits his potential.
14. RB Ryan Grant (Green Bay Packers)
Grant took a small step back last year following his breakout 2007 season, mainly because he struggled early in the season. With Aaron Rodgers playing well at quarterback, Grant should be able to bounce back to 1,500 yards rushing.
15. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)
Fitzgerald will be the first receiver taken on draft day and he has every right to be. I can almost guarantee that someone in your league drafts him in the first round because of what he did in the playoffs.
If he slips to round two, give him a strong look. Even if Anquan Boldin is traded and teams double-team Fitzgerald, Fitzgerald is still a no-brainer second-round fantasy choice.
16. WR Andre Johnson (Houston Texans)
This guy is an absolute stud who’ll put up terrific numbers for you if healthy. Steve Slaton’s boost to the running game should really open things up for Johnson in 2009.
17. RB Clinton Portis (Washington Redskins)
Portis is a hard-nosed player who plays through pain. He will rack up yards for you and should get to double-digit touchdowns as well.
The problem is he tends to wear down late in the year, when you need him most. If he can maintain through an entire season, he is a top 10 guy.
18. RB Brandon Jacobs (New York Giants)
Jacobs is a touchdown machine. While he may not get as many yards as some backs, he will provide double-digit scores. With Derrick Ward leaving via free agency, Jacobs will see even more touches this year.
He could go higher, but his injury problems keep him from going in the top 10.
19. QB Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts)
While Manning has lost his top QB rating, he is still a top-three quarterback, slightly ahead of Arizona’s Kurt Warner. Manning is as consistent as they come—you always know what you can expect from him.
20. QB Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals)
Warner sneaks into the top 20 because of his stellar ‘08, including the Cardinals' playoff run. While a Boldin trade could hurt Warner’s value a bit, he’ll still put up numbers with a solid team around him.
If the Cardinals draft a running back and turning back to a running game they abandoned at times last year, that could hurt Warner as well. For now, he rounds out the top 20.
Players Who Just Missed the Cut
Doing just that is one of the Bruno Boys’ newest additions, Greg Warnock.
When fantasy draft time comes around in August, refer back to this column to give you an idea of how things have changed and why.
*The rankings below are based on a standard scoring league (non PPR).
1. RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
More than 1,700 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns a year ago—not bad for a guy who faced many defenses that kept eight men in the box. As long as he’s healthy, he repeats, and possibly exceeds those numbers.
2. RB Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons)
Turner nearly got 1,700 yards himself last year, falling short by just one, but his 17 touchdowns were the real eye-popper. With a solid quarterback in Matt Ryan, who now has a year of NFL experience under his belt, don't worry about defenses keying in on Turner in 2009.
3. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville Jaguars)
Jones-Drew finally becomes the premier running back for the Jags and should have a heck of a year. Unless the Jaguars bring in another back this weekend, I don’t see him coming off the field much. That means he’ll score you plenty of touchdowns.
4. RB Matt Forte (Chicago Bears)
The Bears will get to open things up a little bit with new QB Jay Cutler under center, but head coach Lovie Smith won’t shy away from the strong running attack that was their offense in 2008.
5. RB Steve Slaton (Houston Texans)
When Slaton got his opportunity with Houston last year he took off with it. He should be able to gobble up the yards and rack up double-digit touchdowns in a full season as a starter.
6. RB Brian Westbrook (Philadelphia Eagles)
Westbrook would be No. 3 on this list if not for his penchant for landing on the injury report. He will still get a lot of the touches in Philly, even if they draft a complementary running back in the first round. Westbrook is a steal at No. 6 if healthy.
7. QB Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)
Conventional wisdom says take a running back in the first round, however, with many teams using multiple threats in the backfield, elite quarterbacks and wide receivers are worth taking early.
Brees had an amazing statistical season in 2008, and should put up huge numbers again with his offense coming back largely intact.
8. RB LaDainian Tomlinson (San Diego Chargers)
While the guy is no longer a No. 1 overall pick, he is still a first round selection. He played much of last year with injuries, and still produced a combined 1,500 yards rushing and receiving. Tomlinson is also a touchdown monster, punching in 12 last year. While Darren Sproles could steal some touches, LT is still an RB1.
9. RB Steven Jackson (St. Louis Rams)
Jackson has had trouble living up to the potential of his draft selection each year. Yet I still think this is the season he can break out.
The biggest problem the Rams have had is a shaky offensive line. Signing Jason Brown from the Ravens and (hopefully) drafting Jason Smith of Baylor will strengthen that group. As another plus, new head coach Steve Spagnuolo, an import from the Giants, knows the importance of the run.
10. RB Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)
Gore didn’t quite live up to the expectations everyone had for him in Mike Martz’s offense a year ago. Head coach Mike Singletary, though, will rely on his running back to carry the team. As long as he is healthy (he missed two games last year), Gore should produce as a top 10 guy.
11. QB Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
Brady won’t put up 50 touchdowns like he did two years ago, but I do see him reaching at least 30, while throwing for more than 3,500 yards. He is healthy and still has Randy Moss and Wes Welker, along with Joey Galloway.
Brady’s running game is better than it was two years ago, but the passing attack is New England’s bread-and-butter. Matt Cassel put up big numbers last season, so why wouldn’t Brady do the same this time around? Plus, you might be able to steal Brady in the second round if others are worried about his injury.
12. RB Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans)
While many others will have this guy ranked in the top 10, and even the top five, I can’t agree. He had a great rookie campaign, but the fact that he splits touches with LenDale White keeps him from matching the truly elite fantasy backs.
13. RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)
Johnson’s problem holds true for Williams as well. He could be a top five pick, but the presence of Jonathan Stewart limits his potential.
14. RB Ryan Grant (Green Bay Packers)
Grant took a small step back last year following his breakout 2007 season, mainly because he struggled early in the season. With Aaron Rodgers playing well at quarterback, Grant should be able to bounce back to 1,500 yards rushing.
15. WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)
Fitzgerald will be the first receiver taken on draft day and he has every right to be. I can almost guarantee that someone in your league drafts him in the first round because of what he did in the playoffs.
If he slips to round two, give him a strong look. Even if Anquan Boldin is traded and teams double-team Fitzgerald, Fitzgerald is still a no-brainer second-round fantasy choice.
16. WR Andre Johnson (Houston Texans)
This guy is an absolute stud who’ll put up terrific numbers for you if healthy. Steve Slaton’s boost to the running game should really open things up for Johnson in 2009.
17. RB Clinton Portis (Washington Redskins)
Portis is a hard-nosed player who plays through pain. He will rack up yards for you and should get to double-digit touchdowns as well.
The problem is he tends to wear down late in the year, when you need him most. If he can maintain through an entire season, he is a top 10 guy.
18. RB Brandon Jacobs (New York Giants)
Jacobs is a touchdown machine. While he may not get as many yards as some backs, he will provide double-digit scores. With Derrick Ward leaving via free agency, Jacobs will see even more touches this year.
He could go higher, but his injury problems keep him from going in the top 10.
19. QB Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts)
While Manning has lost his top QB rating, he is still a top-three quarterback, slightly ahead of Arizona’s Kurt Warner. Manning is as consistent as they come—you always know what you can expect from him.
20. QB Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals)
Warner sneaks into the top 20 because of his stellar ‘08, including the Cardinals' playoff run. While a Boldin trade could hurt Warner’s value a bit, he’ll still put up numbers with a solid team around him.
If the Cardinals draft a running back and turning back to a running game they abandoned at times last year, that could hurt Warner as well. For now, he rounds out the top 20.
Players Who Just Missed the Cut
RB Thomas Jones (New York Jets), RB Marshawn Lynch (Buffalo Bills), RB Marion Barber (Dallas Cowboys), QB Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers), WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions), WR Randy Moss (New England Patriots).
For more fantasy football insight and advice, visit Bruno Boys Fantasy Football.
For more fantasy football insight and advice, visit Bruno Boys Fantasy Football.
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