Hornets Happenings | Past Performances Do Not Guarantee Future Results

Many think that after that complete blowout in Game 1, that the Hornets are dead and buried. I must admit that I was extremely disappointed. My disappointment was not so much in the results as it was the effort displayed by New Orleans.

In many of their losses this season, a lack of effort coupled with poor performance by the bench have been the key factors.  If the Hornets do not put out the effort in the remainder of the series, it is going to be short one indeed.

As they say in the securities business, past performance is not an indicator of future results.  However, it is interesting to look back at the series between these two teams to see what the key factors were.

Game 1 Nov 27 at Denver. N.O 105, Den 101

Situation:Second game of a three game west coast road trip for the Hornets. Tyson Chandler did not play. Hornets had balanced scoring with five players in double figures, lead by Chris Paul with 22 and Peja Stojakovic with 17.   For the Nuggets, J.R. Smith led all scorers with 32 points in 32 minutes followed by Carmelo Anthony with 24.

The differences in this game were:

1) Free throws - the Hornets slashed to the basket, drew fouls and shot an amazing 27-29 from the charity stripe against a solid 18-22 for the Nuggets

2) Three-point shooting - the Hornets shot 12-23 from behind the arc while the Nuggets were 7-17. Stojakovic was 4-7 while Rasual Butler was 4-5

Game 2 Jan 3 at Denver. Den 105, N.O 100

Situation:Second game of a four game road trip for the Hornets. Tyson Chandler did not play due to a one game suspension. 

Paul led all scorers with 30, followed by David West with 21. Stojakovic added 19 and Hilton Armstrong added 17 points subbing for the suspended Chandler.  There was very little scoring for the Hornets outside these four.

The Nuggets had balanced scoring with six players in double figures. Anthony led the Nuggets with 22 points on 10-17 shooting. The Nuggets led 77-51 midway through the third quarter before New Orleans rallied, outscoring the Nuggets 20-6 to end the third, and cut the lead to 3 early in the fourth quarter.

This game was also won at the free throw line.  The Hornets were 19-24 while the Nuggets were 27-38

Game 3 Jan 28 at N.O.  N.O. 94, Den 81

Situation:Neither  West nor  Chandler played due to injury. Anthony was out with a fractured hand

The Hornets' bench combined to outscored Denver's reserves 42-13. Peja Stojakovic scored a season high  26 points. Eleven players scored for the Hornets.

Kenyon Martin scored 22 points, and  Smith had 20 for Denver. The Nuggets shot  7-20 from the field in the final quarter as a close game turned into a near blowout.

The difference in this game was effort (how about that!) Hornets got back on defense. At the time, Denver was averaging 18 fast-break points. The Hornets held the Nuggets to four points on the break.

The Hornets blocked Denver center Chris Andersen twice inside in the fourth quarter, with Sean Marks slapping away a short floater and Hilton Armstrong stuffing a dunk attempt.

Game 4 Jan 28 at N.O.  Den 101, N.O 88

Situation: This was the last game of a five game home stand for the Hornets. Chandler was out on the injured list as was Stojakovic for the Hornets.  For the Nuggets, Nene sat out with a suspension The Hornets were on a three game winning streak, the Nuggets on a three game losing streak.

Anthony scored 29 points  and Chauncey Billups scored 26 points, hitting four of his five 3-pointers in the second half to help the Nuggets pull away after the game was tied with a little over seven minutes to go in the third quarter.

The differences were:

1) Nuggets scored 18 points on 19 Hornet turnovers

2) The Hornets did not get back in transition 

3) Between the +3 in in offensive rebounds and the -7 in turnovers, the Nuggets won the battle of the field goal shooting 35-81 versus the Hornets 29-69

4) In a preview of playoff game 1, Hornets let  Billups shoot wide open threes. He hit five for seven.

Conclusion

Home court does not seem to be an advantage for either team in this series. Center Tyson Chandler did not play in any of the four games between the two teams this year, so center play is not a predominant factor.

The  elements that the Hornets lacked in playoff game one are the same elements that they lacked in the two losses against the Nuggets this season.  The Nuggets will win if:

1) They have balanced scoring
2) Beat the Hornets in the transition game
3) Win the turnover battle
4) The bench significantly outplays the Hornets bench

The Hornets can still win this series. However, so do so the Hornets must:

1) Get back on defense and slow down the transition game
2) Have Stojakovic and or Butler get hot early to spread the Nuggets defense
3) Have a respectable game from the bench
4) Keep the turnovers to a minimum
5) Get a hand in the faces of the Nuggets outside shooters.

One notable thing is that the Nuggets are hot, the Hornets are not. It can always turn around.  The Hornets do not necessarily have to win game 2, but a better effort is essential.

Past performances are not indicative of future results. I am not prepared to invest my money betting on the Hornets right now.