NBA Playoff Preview: Witness

Witness! For the first time since 1964 the city of Cleveland are champions. In 2002-2003 the Cavaliers went 17-65, but that is probably their second best season ever. Due to the team's futility that year, they received the first pick in the draft, which led to the selection of Lebron James, which in turn has led to this moment five years later. The city has endured so many heartbreaks with the Indians and the Browns, and the Cavs have had only brief flirtations with contention. However, we predict that, in 2008-09 "Cleveland Rocks."

After correctly predicting every game of the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four and Championship of the NCAA tournament and presenting its NHL Playoff Preview, the WhatIfSports.com computer now focuses on professional basketball. Similar to those two stories, we have simulated the NBA Playoffs 10,000 times in order to determine the exact likelihood of each of the 16 teams making it to any level. As one could expect, one of the conferences is chalk, while the other is totally up for grabs.

Thorough results of the simulations can be found at BracketPreview.com. A recap of some of the more interesting points is below, but we encourage you to check out the Bracket Preview page to see it all.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a very good team. They went 39-2 at home, losing to only the Lakers and the 76ers (when all the starters rested on the final day of the season). Since 2003 the Cavs have gotten better and better, but the offseason acquisition of Mo Williams was the missing piece. The Cavs have tried many different players in the role of sidekick to the King, with little success. Larry Hughes was supposed to fill that void, but he never really fit and was dealt for Ben Wallace, a role player who fits perfectly on this team. This offseason, the Cavs overcame their roster frustration when they obtained Mo Williams in a three way trade that cost them Damon Jones, who was seldom used anyway, and Joe Smith, who would later rejoin the team after being waived by the Thunder. Williams was the perfect sharpshooting scorer to pair with James, who commands the attention of the entire defense. Both he and Lebron represented the Cavs in the all star game.

The Cavs path to the finals was not all that difficult after word spread that Kevin Garnett would likely miss the entire playoffs. Because of this news, Garnett was not included in this simulation. The Cavs have a 77.6% chance of getting to the Eastern Conference Finals, a number which likely would not be so high had we simulated with KG starting and playing normal minutes for Boston. The Cavs are expected to get to the Finals by beating Orlando who has a 52.4% chance of reaching the conference finals.

The East is really not very exciting as we don't expect any upsets except for Orlando over Boston, which shouldn't be considered an upset given the Garnett situation. Boston and Atlanta may pose a threat, having a 35.3% and 13.6% chance, respectively, of upsetting those top two teams. Boston has just a 3.3% chance of repeating as champions without their heart and soul in the lineup. The top three teams in the East all have a better than 70% chance—Boston is the lowest at 72.6%—to advance to the conference semifinals. Only Atlanta struggled with the Heat and have a 61.2% chance to knock off Dwayne Wade and company. Detroit, who has been to the Eastern Conference Finals six straight seasons, have just a 3.6% chance of making it seven.

As for the West, it is a little more complicated to explain. The Lakers are predicted by many to at least get to the Finals, but the computer sees things differently. The Portland Trailblazers are an unlikely 21.7% chance favorite to get to the Finals out of the West, edging the Lakers who have an 18.6% chance. Portland is expected to face Dallas in the western conference finals after taking out the Lakers in round two. Portland enters the playoffs out west as the only team not to have made it there in the previous season, but they have a young, talented core of players led by Brandon Roy, who is quickly emerging as a superstar. They are also deep and versatile with Lamarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, Nicolas Batum, and of course 2007 first overall pick Greg Oden. While they may not get a lot of national attention, the Blazers are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league and generate a lot of second chances from offensive rebounds. They're also an above average defensive team.

The Lakers have just a 57.9% chance of surviving eighth-seeded Utah. The defending West champs win it all only 9% of the time and get back to the conference finals 18.6%. They are hurt by having to play Utah and Portland, two very efficient offensive teams, much of the time in the early rounds. Denver is expected to lose in the first round for the sixth straight season, which does not bode well for Carmelo Anthony. The second-seeded Nuggets have arguably their best team in years and have a 40.1% chance of knocking off the Hornets. Melo was the third pick in that loaded 2003 draft that saw Lebron land in Cleveland. So with King James capturing his first title, Dwayne Wade already with a ring, and even Darko Milicic (the second overall pick) picking up one with the Pistons, Anthony is on the outside looking in yet again.

Another west upset is expected with the Spurs, who were without Ginobili during these simulations. The Spurs have only a 34.7% chance of getting by the Mavs, who have the sixth highest percentage to win the finals. San Antonio has thus far been able to withstand the effects of age on their core, but this may be the beginning of the end.

Ultimately, the WhatIfSports.com NBA bracket concludes with the deep Western Conference in shambles, as it was last year with Utah expected to get to the finals. New Orleans and Utah, two teams that were just a few games from the Western Conference Finals last year, could only manage the bottom two seeds this season. The Blazers are an unlikely Finals contender this year as they are still young, but at the very least they appear poised to make some noise. Other than Dallas/San Antonio which ends 4-2, the other three series go to seven games with Chris Paul's Hornets knocking off Denver, Yao and the Rockets falling short against Portland, and the Lakers taking game 7 from the Jazz. Only one East series goes seven and that is the Hawks eliminating Miami. Chicago wins two against Boston and Detroit and Philly only get one against Cleveland and Orlando respectively. The 76ers are the only team of the sixteen that won 0% of championships. Five teams have less than 1% chance – Spurs (0.9%), Denver (0.4%), Detroit (0.4%), Miami (0.3%), and Chicago (0.3%). Detroit is the only team in the bracket with a less than 10% chance to get out of first round (9.6%).

Once the NBA Finals are set, Beyond the Boxscore will have an in-depth feature with boxscores, play-by-play and game recaps for each game of the series.