NCAA Tournament 2013 Upsets: UCLA, Illinois and Other Teams on Alert in Round 2

The field of NCAA tournament teams has been set, and this year’s showcase is already shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent years. After a regular season laden with massive upsets, we should expect nothing less in the Round of 64.

RPI, strength of schedule and recent records play into the selection committee’s final decisions, but some of the initial pairings in the tournament don’t bode well for the more highly ranked teams.

Earning a berth in the Big Dance is an impressive achievement. Navigating through the treacherous of the early rounds will be another story.

Let’s take a look at some Round 2 matchups that could prove disastrous for teams that should be entering the tournament on full upset alert.

(7) Illinois vs. (10) Colorado

For most Big Ten teams in the field of 64, the regular season was excellent preparation for the rigors of the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately for Illinois, its second-round matchup is not an enviable one.

Colorado added some impressive wins to its résumé in the second half of the season, including two over Oregon and a 13-point drubbing of Arizona on February 14. The Buffaloes were somewhat inconsistent in the second half of the season, but they’ve shown the ability to play tough basketball against stiff competition.

The Illini posted a couple impressive wins this season as well, but a stretch of four losses in their last six games did nothing to build momentum for the NCAA tournament. Illinois may be the higher-seeded team, but this game could easily come down to the wire.

Records and RPI mean nothing with the matchups now set. Illinois has to get key contributions from its best players in order to have a chance at making a deep run in the tournament.

Senior guard Brandon Paul has shouldered most of the offensive workload for the Illini this season. Ranked 129th in the nation in points per game (69.1), Illinois has relied on Paul’s 16.6 points per game to keep the offense moving in the right direction. If Colorado can shut down Paul, the Buffaloes have a good chance of pulling off a big Round 2 upset.

(6) UCLA vs. (11) Minnesota

Like Illinois, Minnesota was the victim of a tough Big Ten schedule. The entire conference cannibalized itself throughout the regular season, but each team to enter the NCAA tournament from the conference should have an advantage with added toughness and experience against top teams.

The Golden Gophers haven’t been the most efficient squad at the offensive end of the floor, but they rebound well and play stout defense—the perfect recipe for upending UCLA in the Round of 64.

Minnesota fell apart in the second half of the season, but wins over Indiana and Wisconsin prove the Gophers have what it takes to beat any team in the country. Those teams are often the most dangerous matchups early in the tournament.

For UCLA to avoid a big upset in the Round of 64, Shabazz Muhammad and Jordan Adams have to step up under the bright lights. Both freshmen will be experiencing the tournament for the first time.

When a team’s two leading scorers have no tournament experience, the result is often unpredictable. The Bruins may slip past Minnesota in the second round, but don’t expect it to be easy.

(11) Belmont vs. (6) Arizona

Belmont is one of the true sleepers in this year’s tournament. The Bruins haven’t been very effective at the defensive end of the floor (120th in scoring defense), but they make up for it with one of the most explosive offenses in the country.

Belmont is fourth in the nation in field-goal percentage (49.4 percent), and no team matches up well against the Bruins’ bevy of shooters. Four key contributors on Belmont’s roster are shooting better than 37 percent from three-point range.

The key to a Wildcats victory will be keeping the Bruins from running the floor in transition. Forcing Belmont to play in the half-court and slow the pace of the game will give Arizona a slight edge, but it will be nearly impossible to keep Ian Clark, Kerron Johnson, Trevor Noack and J.J. Mann all under wraps.

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